ACUS11 KWNS 222151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222150=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-222345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...Central North Carolina into Southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 222150Z - 222345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A loosely organized line of thunderstorms is moving
eastward into portions of central North Carolina/southern Virginia.
Damaging straight-line winds -- especially along any bowing segments
or with interacting outflows -- will be possible through this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of thunderstorms in western
North Carolina and portions of southwestern Virginia will continue
to move east through the late afternoon and into the early evening.
Strong daytime heating has resulted in surface temperatures reaching
the low-to-mid 90s F, and proximity RAP soundings show a deep and
well-mixed boundary layer with LCLs exceeding 1800 meters. As a
result, DCAPE values exceed 1200 J/kg ahead of these storms and
should support strong downdrafts. Though current VAD wind profiles
from Roanoke and Wakefield show small, disorganized hodographs,
mesoanalysis shows around 30 kts of effective layer shear that will
support continued loose organization with eastward extent. Given the
30 kts of deep-layer shear and strong DCAPE, sustained and strong
downdrafts could produce 55-70 MPH winds through the early evening.
A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered to cover this
threat.

..Halbert.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8GPpCk1zWJGEXql4XWF6TILrxtRljkVF1JR-bPjcZuWvfskKKDsl5cYi8uJHsiQEvbUwVyWBD= PZppFyvkSbDY2cBAN4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 35948181 36108133 36438096 36768080 37108055 37258021
37247977 37267896 37107814 36927780 36497774 35947830
35567919 35318017 35208094 35308149 35548181 35718184
35948181=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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