ACUS11 KWNS 230552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230551=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-230915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...southern into southwest Oklahoma across the Red
River into far northern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230551Z - 230915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage across southern Oklahoma
into parts of far northern Texas across the Red River. A few storms
may become severe with locally large hail.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed within a zone of weak
theta-e advection at 850 mb, from southwest OK into northeast TX.
Rich boundary layer moisture as well as overall strong instability
exists in this region, along with effective deep-layer shear of
35-40 kt. Area VWPs indicate 850 winds out of the south/southeast at
around 25 kt, aiding lift across the warm advection zone. Models
suggest low-level winds will veer and strengthen tonight, which may
briefly increase ascent through about 10Z. Slow-moving cells with
periodic hail cores and heavy rain are expected. Given high PWAT
environment, localized strong downbursts may occur as well.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pVVlw1YhQe5PM6C7XXXslV5lCfDx23YHVPLHGWy8NieQuGQnu_KqWLNt73xwa4POVsl-9wD4= as7iLWrghey_dOgaag$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33619781 33829949 34000001 34240023 34640027 34950021
35309986 35419912 35289852 34999805 34689723 34269579
33989482 33759454 33379448 33139485 33349608 33619781=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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