ACUS11 KWNS 231058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231057=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-231330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the
northeast Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231057Z - 231330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage continues to increase this morning, with
sporadic hail likely. The area is being monitored for potential
upscale growth and watch potential for damaging wind downstream.

DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage over the last couple
hours, as the low-level jet gradually veers towards southerly,
bringing a very moist air mass northward atop the relatively cool
surface air mass. MUCAPE is likely above 2000 J/kg, with upstream
PWAT measured at 1.77" near OKC. West to northwest midlevel winds
around 30 kt combined with the backed low-level winds are resulting
in effective shear over 40 kt.

In the near term, localized hail up to 1.75" appears possible in the
stronger cells, with perhaps an increase in localized damaging gust
potential. Trends will continue to be monitored for any upscale
organization and possible downstream watch potential.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4O0DlkQZIntdEC20U1xPunx27ojNJwi9dtIu7g7iEaBQF7Ups0fnxL0yLCmDZPdlJRJaYylAH= 6pfIip00SyZZuOxjUM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37790123 37860107 37930078 37670021 37149954 36229865
35659867 35439938 35450007 36380072 37050100 37560124
37790123=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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