ACUS11 KWNS 231415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231415=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-231545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...western OK into the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231415Z - 231545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase this morning across
the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Clustering of ongoing convection has increased over the
past hour across the northeast TX Panhandle into adjacent portions
of western OK. This activity has been expanding on its western flank
as a modest southwesterly low-level jet is apparent from the KAMA
VWP. This activity is growing within moderate west/northwesterly
flow aloft and amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Low-level
winds are relatively weak, but east/southeasterly near-surface flow
as allowed upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints to overspread the
region. This cluster may persist southward this morning into this
very moist airmass and along a moderate/strong instability gradient
oriented across western OK and the TX Panhandle.=20

A recent gust to 41 mph was noted at the Lipscomb West TX Mesonet
site. While some low-level inhibition is noted in SPC Mesoanalysis,
filtered heating and clearing across southwest OK into western North
TX has temperatures quickly approaching the low 80s. It is uncertain
if continued strengthening/organization will be occur given the
expectation for a gradually weakening low-level jet through the
morning. Modest low-level inhibition may preclude a more robust
severe risk if further organization does not occur. However, if
this cluster continues to strengthen, some damaging wind risk will
be possible downstream across the eastern TX Panhandle into
southwest OK. Trends are being monitored for possible watch
issuance.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ba96uq2a-6EX2GMSBvT1x9UILVlEPiQJJzCa1x6X3rHUx4j6FzeAh0BUrF3AVeF9W9eiYnYu= U6ofo3IdGP7WbiZesI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36279956 35419875 34489890 34329981 34370025 34700071
35350104 35880111 36270081 36420030 36279956=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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