ACUS11 KWNS 232240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232240=20
MNZ000-WIZ000-240015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of Minnesota into far western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 232240Z - 240015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms continue to
pose a risk for isolated large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
two. Watch issuance remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has gradually increased across
portions of Minnesota through early evening along a surface
boundary. Isolated, transient supercell structures have been noted
with this activity and have produced sporadic reports of brief
funnel clouds and hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter over the past
couple of hours. Expectation is for this activity to persist for at
least another couple of hours, with two areas of locally greater
severe potential evident within the broader discussion area.

Across north-central Minnesota, isolated thunderstorms along an
occluded front have shown brief upticks in intensity. Should a
stronger cell become better established, isolated large hail and
perhaps a brief tornado may be possible. Farther south, ongoing
convection across south-central Minnesota continues to display signs
of modest organization. The strongest cells continue to pose a risk
for isolated large hail and a brief tornado, particularly with any
cells that favorably interact with the surface warm front. Watch
issuance remains uncertain owing to generally limited/marginal
thermodynamic profiles and the isolated nature of the severe threat.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/23/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7dbVfSNL8qKWrrebe10Lhp_sgorA1_AF1RCdibYgyr2bXjs9fNMxxA2vRvmPz6R7xfIVg8CEg= 6x1Wcck3Y_y3ckL94I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...

LAT...LON 45279580 46749593 47419594 47739584 47929560 47989504
47909465 47679432 46579409 46039398 45529382 45199332
44949258 44709198 44519179 44249180 43999216 43909359
43939460 44019527 44129554 44529575 45279580=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)