ACUS11 KWNS 241811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241811=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-242045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into southern Colorado and the
Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241811Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the higher terrain of the
southern Rockies will pose a severe wind/hail threat as they spread
east through the late afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance
will likely be needed later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The effects of strong diurnal heating/boundary-layer
mixing and orographic ascent are quickly becoming apparent in GOES
imagery across much of New Mexico. Several regions of building
cumulus are noted as temperatures warm into the low 90s and
lingering inhibition quickly erodes. Building cumulus is also noted
along the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where
upslope flow is providing focused forcing for ascent a few deeper
towers are noted in low-level water-vapor imagery, suggesting that
initial attempts at deep convective initiation will likely occur
within the next hour or so.=20

Sustained convection developing along the terrain will spread east
within given westerly flow regime aloft. Lingering inhibition at
lower elevations may limit how quickly high-based convection can
utilize near-surface parcels, but once MLCIN erodes and/or cold
pools can become sufficiently deep, convection will be influenced by
the regionally rich low-level moisture in place across eastern NM/CO
(dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s) that is supporting MLCAPE values
upwards of 1500 J/kg. Concurrently, convection will begin to realize
the 30-35 knots of deep-layer wind shear (sampled by the KFDX VWP),
which should promote supercellular storm modes initially with an
attendant threat for large hail and severe gusts. Watch issuance
will likely be needed by late afternoon as convection begins to
mature and spread east into the more buoyant air mass.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!76E_LxjSc0SV2kh6jvAVohKQE_fHnl4TbvGuBwktbdEUoPbTB0F3bMpSL1_FoFtGIBHQcjEK8= PLO7s__nb5pZ3LP6UQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34090497 34710527 35650528 36330512 36910489 37360490
37650488 37860470 37850446 37770398 37530351 37170301
36750279 35940270 34610257 34020268 33740294 33610342
33560390 33600428 33690457 33820478 34090497=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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