ACUS11 KWNS 242347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242346=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska into far northwestern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

Valid 242346Z - 250015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk should expand east of Tornado Watch 389
into western NE and far northwestern KS through the evening hours.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado is also
possible. A WW will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in both coverage and intensity
along the CO/NE border, likely due to strong 700 mb WAA
overspreading a surface baroclinic boundary. In addition to minimal
MLCINH over the region, 23Z mesoanalysis shows nearly 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE overlapping with 50+ kts of effective SRH, which should be
more than sufficient to support severe hail or wind with the
stronger updrafts. Storms that can remain closer to the surface
boundary will have a better chance at producing a tornado.
High-resolution model guidance (including deterministic HRRR runs
and the latest WoFS guidance) suggest that storm clustering and
potential upscale growth are possible later this evening. Should
this occur, the severe gust threat may become more pronounced.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HC6BDxpHfz6qNqQmQ_5RFEXntDBlWFVI96TWn9q7-8sRS0h4vGQgFpQwEX0GLku-jfKAxfON= sKKwo8r678f3iixh6g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 42660277 40439865 40009864 39749880 39569921 39549975
39670038 39970091 40320141 40820196 41090231 41340250
42660277=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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