Forum: KrAABy Gamer BBS

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 18:13:04

AWUS01 KWNH 271812
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0861
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Illinois, Northwest Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271809Z - 272100Z

Summary...There will be a window for potential training of
thunderstorm activity from the Chicago Metro Area toward the
border region between northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana
between 1 PM and 4 PM CDT. Rain rates could exceed 2 inches per
hour at times; if those occur in areas that have already received
heavy rainfall, flash flooding could rapidly develop, or existing
flash flooding could worsen.

Discussion...Isolated supercells along the western shore of Lake
Michigan have occasionally exhibited enough southward right-moving
tendency near the composite lake breeze and outflow boundary to
produce rapid bursts of heavy rainfall on the order of 1-2 inches
in about 45 minutes. Thus far, the threat of flash flooding has
been more isolated as the storms themselves were spaced out, but
has materialized where supercell motion has been slowest and
intersected with urban areas. However, there are signals in the
past 30 minutes for some elevated thunderstorm redevelopment in
the wake of a lead supercell and storm cluster now on the south
side of Chicago. The redevelopment is occurring over the urban
corridor from Lake County into Cook County, and could pass over
some areas that have already received heavy rainfall. The lead
thunderstorm cluster should continue to make progress south along
the IL-IN border region with continued intense instantaneous rain
rates, and there is potential for a training band of convection to
continue to feed in behind it over the next few hours. The
environment will be very similar -- a reservoir of extreme
instability upstream with high PWs -- which will support rain
rates over 2 inches per hour and a continued flash flood threat.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7iixnL1R30V2288vbX6oudMMB_GuppjCrW7hT0iFJBHBNHFsRZ1Wm1wlIoJpVxfjekE6QpQB-Hc3fXZHkz_jft09PmU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42438788 42278741 41488694 40828701 40868801
41598827 42258823

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 21:07:18

AWUS01 KWNH 272107
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0864
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Much of Indiana...Northeast & Eastern
Illinois...Southwest Ohio...Far Northern Kentucky...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272105Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...Intense, locally repeating thunderstorms capable of
2.5"/hr rates may result in multiple stripes of 2-4" totals in 1-3
hours resulting in possible localized incidents of flash flooding,
particularly across urban centers where there will be limited
infiltration.

DISCUSSION...A complex, vigorous and highly dynamic environment
across the Great Lakes is spreading south into the Ohio Valley
with very deep moisture/unstable environment to support
strong/highly efficient rainfall production. However, given
strong deep layer flow, the speed will likely limit overall totals
with exception of incidents of repeating/training which are
probable locally across a broadening zone from W OH to E IL.
Aloft a strong shortwave at the nose of a splitting upper-level
jet can be seen with rapid WV leading ahead of rapid/broadening
warming in WV across WI into northern LP of MI. This split
downstream has allow for solid divergence aloft and upscale growth
of initial supercells near Milwaukee and Chicago this afternoon,
into a progressive bow in north-central IND with an upstream
elongated long updraft from SE WI across Lake Michigan.

Here the upstream edge of outflow boundary can be seen from a
surface low near ISW in central WI due south along, just east of
I-39 into northern IL. A surface pressure trof well ahead of the
surface cold front is helping to provide slightly enhanced
confluence at the trailing end of a broad west-southwesterly very
moist and very unstable inflow where surface Tds are in the upper
70s, low 80s and MLCAPEs are up to 5000 J/kg. This ascends
orthogonally to the outflow boundary supporting the trailing broad
updraft in SE WI but also newer development along the flank of the
exiting bow echo across the western suburbs of Chicago at this
time. Scattered TCU and weak CBs are intersecting and
reinvigorating surface based convection along the outflow. Hourly
rates of 2.5-3"/hr are probable given broad updrafts that are
rotating, providing the extra flux convergence from super-cell
influences. It is along this upstream edge, the greatest potential
of training will exist given unidirectional steering flow
generally parallel to the N-S outflow boundary. Depending on
further expansion/destabilization, streaks of 2-4" are possible
mainly in E IL and along the IND line. This is in line with
recent RRFS and WoFS solutions, with the latter suggesting 90th
percentile range may even locally reach 6", which seems to be a
bound for worse case solution given current trends.

Further east...the progressive bow echo will help to produce a
quick sub-hourly 1-1.5" higher near the cyclonic rotor of the bow,
but RAP analysis still shows some remaining pockets of
conditionally unstable air and with reduced upstream development,
perhaps further elevated advection of higher theta-E air to
support additional upstream development filing in before the main
upper-level trof swings through. This is more in line with recent
HRRR and ARW solutions with slightly reduced totals but localized
random intersections up to 2-3". Proximity to urban centers where
limited infiltration and higher run-off given the shear rates
resulting in the highest potential for localized FF across central
IND into SW Ohio later this evening.

All in all, the broadening of the split flow and current trends do
not provide high confidence, but a few incidents of flash flooding
(as described above) remain possible through this evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4oYYttlfZLP3JT869MGLLBZz8nkclrS4uRkQLDhbGDONfOx5S96nw_r-8hqfe-Y5MyUvVfmIQBG7q2PxOhZH9fzlWXU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42378797 42248716 41908654 41398595 40818518
39898415 38878434 38408545 38568699 38898789
39808829 40588852 41358865 41788865 42138842

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 20:19:50

AWUS01 KWNH 272019
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-280215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0863
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Mogollon Rim and Southeast
Arizonia...West-central to Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272020Z - 280215Z

SUMMARY...Increasing scattered thunderstorms to continue to expand
into smaller clusters with slow cell motions. Ample remaining
moisture and weak but sufficient inflow likely to maintain
efficient rainfall with rates of 1-1.5"/hr. Scattered totals of
1-2" in 1-2 hours may result in possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...While mid-level vorticity center is well distant in
northern Colorado, there remains a south-southwestward extending
700-500mb trough through S CO into northwest to western NM that is
driving remaining upslope flow out of the southern deserts as well
as through the Rio Grande Valley to intersect the terrain in SE AZ
and SW NM. Full insolation today has help to build conditionally
unstable environment along the Mogollon Rim from NW AZ through to
the Mogollon/Gila Mountains in E AZ/W NM where MLCAPEs have risen
to 500-1000+ J/kg from west to east. Better low level moisture
out of the Valley into SE AZ has increased instability to 1500
J/kg in Cochise county where low 60s Tds reside.

Unlike prior days, there was some weak capping across the region,
but that is quickly eroding from the mid-level trough axis
westward through the Rim. Isolated convective initiation is
starting to take place across the areas of reduced capping but
also increasing moisture flux convergence generally centered near
SOW and SW toward SVC. With stronger updraft strength, rates of
1-1.5"/hr are to become more likely with further insolation and destabilization. Generally low level convergence toward the
mid-level trough axis will be countered by weak westerly flow
aloft, allowing for back-sheared anvils to fall along the path of
the initial core allowing for random increased rainfall residency
for localized 1.5-2" maximum. Given rocky, rough terrain, this
may result in localized incidents of flash flooding, with higher concentration/areal coverage more likely across SE AZ into the
eastern Mogollon Rim where instability remains highest through the
late afternoon into evening hours, with a larger cluster possible
to evolve/upscale grow toward 00z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_b66ash13TywNiAIzMA18RA_f-hos8RgGWAlxkI0Rph0FRZ4d_hn9uozU3AaY2x-st4JdeOWJD0QlNk6mb4z-aXF6rk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36181283 36151181 34930880 35680717 34270708
33170747 32060780 31270807 31280960 31611172
32681049 33241055 33651094 34391230 35611322

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 21:37:56

AWUS01 KWNH 272137
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0865
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwest Kansas...Far
Southwest Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272135Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...Strong initially slow moving cells will be capable of
1.5-2"/hr rates and with some mergers/collisions, localized total
of 2-3" pose possible incident(s) of localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis shows traditional surface low
north of Lamar, CO with a persistent surface trof/shear axis
extending northeastward toward CBK before starting to sag south
from K82 east toward NW MO. Surface to boundary layer
northeasterly flow has been pooling enhanced moisture values
through the South Platte River Valley and northwest KS with
1.5-1.75" Total Pwats in confluent flow responding to the
deepening low across E CO. Proximity to the deep layer ridge
centered along the SE CO/SW KS border and ample clear skies south
of a stratus deck across SE WY into W NEB has allowed for
temperatures to rise into the low to mid-100s with said enhanced
mid to upper 60s Tds.

As a result, highly unstable air to 5000 J/kg MLCAPE is analyzed
along north of the boundary and with the convergence along the
boundary convective initiation has rapidly occurred (overshooting
tops to -75C)along the CO/NE KS border. That stratus shield is
associated with an older jet streak out of the Rockies this
morning that is starting to open toward right entrance ascent
pattern to provide further divergence aloft to support the
updrafts, while the overall steering flow remains very weak. As
such, strong moisture flux updrafts will support 1.5-2"/hr rates
and with limited cell motions may result in quick 2-3" totals in
the next hour or so. RADAR animation shows outflows are already
starting to emanate and converge for additional proximity
development, so eventual slow motions toward the north-northeast
may allow for some cell mergers/collisions that could result in
short-term enhancement totwward 2.25-2.5"/hr rates.

While the area has been very dry in the upper 0-40cm (less than
20% soil saturation), FFG values fluctuate through the area but
are as low as 1-1.5"/hr in Lincoln/Kit Carson County, but
generally remain around 2"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs. Given both are in
range, and up/downdrafts are fairly broad and incident or two of
flash flooding is considered possible through the next few hours.
Expansion and slow motions to the north will approach the southern
Sand Hills of SW and central NEB, where obviously the risk will be
mitigated by the higher soil infiltration.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7j2ckYpfDnJOQ-8MgTxRLxJiqTO1p1gA2PXcFvx6XZZn3WSnbIF6-tWjBjXM_tlPwtfoxj8-mMwbvqix9r3-j1ON3aI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41180083 40909989 40309978 39859992 38810115
38380206 38280274 38380314 38730337 39410325
40540252 40870211 41090152

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 23:51:52

AWUS01 KWNH 272351
FFGMPD
MIZ000-280530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0867
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Northern & Eastern Lower Peninsula of Michigan...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272350Z - 280530Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms with ample moisture for 1.5-2"/hr
rates show signs of upstream strengthening for repeating/training
that may result in 2-3.5" totals and localized flash flooding
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...23z surface analysis depicts a subtle surface wave in
the center of the MI U.P, between P53 and ISQ along a quickly
advancing cold front. This is generally collocated with the left
exit region of strong 110-120kt 250mb jet crossing Lake Superior
and strengthening shortwave. VWP and RAP analysis also denote
this inflection, perhaps enhanced by the shapes of the Lakes and
prior wave, to 850mb, but unlike the surface; the 850mb boundary
extends southeastward across the northern LP into the 'Thumb' and
Ontario Peninsula. In the wake of the initial shortwave, strong
southwesterly flow along/ahead of the cold front has strengthened
to 30-35kts and advected higher moisture and unstable air to
replenish/enhance unstable areas of the northern LP that were not
mixed over with the initial convection.

Surface Tds in the upper 60s, near 70F combined with pooled
moisture along the 850mb boundary is support 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and total PWats starting to near 2.0". The strong
isentropic ascent/convergence has resulted in stronger
thunderstorms in Alpena/Alcona county, with additional upstream
development through the northern Lake Michigan Islands. Rates of
1.5-2"/hr are likely to become more common, but given inflection
of deepening, deep layer cyclone; the pooling of moisture and
favorable unidirectional steering flow should allow for expanding
development and potential for training thunderstorms over the next
few hours. Recent HRRR solutions suggest, as evening turns to
night, strengthening LLJ and boundary layer decoupling may allow
for cells to become a bit more surface rooted. This would
generally deflect the track of the training potential more south
of southeast which would bring areas surrounding Saginaw Bay into
the eastern Thumb of Michigan and perhaps even northern suburbs of
Detroit for training/repeating cells into the early overnight
period as well.

Naturally lower FFG values across the northeast tip of the LP into
the 'Thumb' are about <2"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs; both of which are well
in the range of localized exceedance. As such, flash flooding is
considered possible through 05z tonight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6iHPo08NZfltERd1GHiw07ZjXUraRBqtGoTHr428-whp2aPcfNzHQNwIDKOO7fDYNJQxuocauXSN9a9m0hdVuBiJY8g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45888546 45858497 45658411 45188329 44748292
44108248 43088221 42568257 42488326 43128390
44198450 44648503 45018547 45398580 45778576

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, July 27, 2026 23:17:02

AWUS01 KWNH 272316
FFGMPD
COZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0866
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Central Colorado...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272320Z - 280500Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered incidents of focused flash
flooding remain possible into the early overnight period. Rates of
1-1.25"/hr and localized totals to 1.5" to continue, with better
signals across the San Juan range through the central Front Range.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible, 10.3um EIR and GLM/NLDN lightning
animation show a few clusters of enhanced activity in the last
hour or so across the central Front Range of the Colorado Rockies
as well as cluster lifting north east off the San Juan Range. RAP
and surface analysis shows an increasing stabilizing northern
Colorado High Plains, with some inflection of the surface to
boundary layer shear axis noted in the central High Plains toward
Pueblo before angling northwest toward Central and North Park.
LightningCast denotes a solid increase in percentages above 70%
across the North Park and ranges southwest into NW Eagle county
and S Routt county. Modest remaining 1000-1250 J/kg of SBCAPE
exists through this area and along that aforementioned shear axis
with a few 1500-1750 J/kg pockets remains in south-central CO
northeast of the San Juan activity. Given exiting shortwave over
NE Colorado at this time, general southwest to west-southwest
confluence should concentration best development through before
moving into more stable air across the Northern Rockies and
downslope areas in the High Plains.

Total layer moisture remains well above normal with some variation
due to off-higher terrain valley mixing but Tds are in the upper
40s to low 50s and total PWat values are closer to 1" in the
highest plateau with 1.25" or higher in the lower valleys in W and
E CO, though reach to over 1.5" further east along the Lake-Palmer
divide into far E CO. With 5-10kts of confluent convergence (and
southwestward propagating boundary), moisture flux convergence
should support rates of 1-1.25"/hr but longevity will be reduced
as the boundary undercuts and shifts southwest for additional
redevelopment in south-central CO. So, only localized 1.5" totals
should be highly isolated, but the rates over complex/rocky ground
conditions, even .5-.75" totals may pose scattered incidents of
focused flash flooding.

There are some hints that a more mature cluster through the
central Rockies with some enhanced moisture flux north of the
surface shear axis may allow further propagation out into the High
Plains and deeper overall moisture. This is less certain, but
also should move into slightly higher FFG, so FF risk would likely
remain with any intersection with smaller towns/urban centers and
fairly quickly at that.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6cNWAd-pgIVmrsyTW2ia2jlw2NPCtYqrFp49ZBMuRVOANTMh0sgve6uJMoCR6fT7jWwMVAvSrXLvkalTtX2Z-goIGIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40920627 40870526 40440487 39770474 39320433
38570339 38020376 38070579 37530717 37750803
38730801 39980782 40560714

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 01:31:14

AWUS01 KWNH 280131
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0868
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona....Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280130Z - 280700Z

SUMMARY...Remaining conditionally unstable air between approaching
outflow boundaries likely to result in scattered thunderstorms
with rates of 1.25-1.5"/hr possible.

DISCUSSION...Fading GOES-E Visible imagery shows low-level
streamers emerging from the lower southern deserts of
south-central Arizona shifting eastward upslope toward two
complexes of thunderstorms. The northern linear feature coming
off the peak of the Mogollon Rim from near KPAN southwest toward
KSAD, which have solid cooling convective towers, but remain
dotted/scattered along the line. The outflow is slowly advancing
downslope into the easterly inflow. The second larger MCS over
eastern Sonora state in NW Mexico is very broad with numerous
overshooting tops and cold canopy below -70C with some tops to
below -80C. Most of the activity remains south of the border, but
there are hints the Meso-high is strengthening and an outflow
boundary is progressing northward in proximity to the SE AZ border
at this time. Additional streams can be seen with occasional
development across SW NM advancing westward. All areas are
generally advancing to an area of 1000-1500 J/kg of remaining CAPE
but also increased deeper layer moisture where TPW is over 1.5
nearing 1.75". The broad scale overturning/ convergence should
result in scattered broadening updraft cores capable of
short-burst (sub-hourly) 1-1.5" totals. Given the rate over
hard/rocky ground conditions, incidents of localized flash
flooding will remains possible through the early overnight period
as the boundaries collide and the developing complex shifts
eastward downslope.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-iT0yqZXU1CDSy8mwHflRBRu8TMP2JZ2LKYUzfrVsiaAQGtj8HdionvkRJRGvnOnvSjWEv-kQa2YRrKRhu1nRAhWktI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34821139 34241047 33530959 33100904 33060795
32720701 31740690 31670796 31250802 31250844
31210967 31261105 31741250 32461241 32691184
33271132 34241195 34681194

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 05:15:54

AWUS01 KWNH 280515
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-281015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0869
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...eastern Lower MI into OH and the upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280512Z - 281015Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage with areas of training
will setup a threat for flash flooding from eastern Lower MI into
much of OH and the adjacent upper OH Valley through 10Z. Training
of heavy rain will allow for 1 to 2+ inches in an hour and storm
totals of 2 to 4+ inches in a few locations.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased across southern
MI as of 05Z, ahead of a mid-level shortwave advancing
southeastward to the north. Despite earlier stabilization from
Monday afternoon's storms, westerly low level flow has replenished
moisture below 700 mb, with modestly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
of 6-7 C/km allowing for MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg
across southern Lower MI per 04Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Farther south, central to western OH was also in a relative
minimum of instability per SPC mesoanalysis data but that will be
changing as the night progresses. As the shortwave over Lower MI
continues to advance southeastward tonight, westerly low level
moisture transport via 30-50 kt at 850 mb will advect moisture
eastward from IL/IN into OH, supporting increasing instability
through 10Z. As this occurs, thunderstorm coverage will increase
over northwestern into central OH, with an overall movement toward
the SSE with time. The orientation of the forecast expanding
thunderstorm cluster(s) aligned with the forecast movement toward
the SSE will allow for training at times with hourly rainfall of 1
to 2+ inches. These rates could result in flash flooding in a few
locations with storm totals of 2 to 4 inches expected (locally
higher).

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8KQpsFLCbbplWfFR7N-F52_OstSBCLHTL1zoeC8lwbXekHebyosesFye3bC5uoPnV9hHf6iIQMS3rurppef4ZlWUVgI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43088358 42878310 42368286 41728258 41028183
39618129 38498163 38078267 38088354 38808429
39588472 41258509 42438470 42978397

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 05:55:46

AWUS01 KWNH 280555
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0870
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...western/central NY into northern PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280553Z - 281150Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding may occur across portions
of central and western NY into northern PA over the next 3-6
hours. Hourly rainfall, locally in excess of 2 inches, will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Areas of scattered thunderstorms were ongoing from
northern PA into central and western NY as of 0530Z. These storms
were occurring out ahead of a mid to upper-level shortwave trough
and associated cold front advancing ESE/SE across southern Ontario
with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE estimated from western PA to the eastern
shores of Lake Erie and Ontario as seen on 05Z SPC mesoanalysis
data. Cells have had a history of upstream development and
repeating, such as what has been observed across the Allegheny
Plateau south of I-86 along the NY/PA border, locally generating
2+ inches of rain in an hour in southern Cattaraugus County.

Going forward, while coverage is a bit uncertain, small clusters
of thunderstorms are likely to continue within the slowly
expanding instability axis as low level winds of 15-25 kt from the
southwest continue to advect moisture into the region. With a
general mean steering flow from the west at 10-20 kt and lower
level flow from the southwest, potential for upstream thunderstorm
development within a low level warm advection regime will support
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches due to training, although
localized hourly rainfall in excess of 2 inches will remain
possible. Storm totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) are
expected through 12Z on an isolated basis along with the potential
for flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9dKppCG0M8q1Htos_NgAzLjg1nFKWjLYv7T8ShDhWUCuTUat6RXWZYOAF9MN6Ipt0vGvS2e2EbJT7ImmXjy1ax0P9O8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44677602 44527533 43957506 42467551 41507642
41037762 40957925 41388058 42098063 42537974
43437913 43637735

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 06:40:24

AWUS01 KWNH 280640
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-281040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0871
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...southeastern NE into northeastern KS and
northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280638Z - 281040Z

SUMMARY...An axis of heavy rain is expected to focus across
southeastern NE into northeastern KS and the mid-MO Valley over
the next 2-4 hours. Training will likely allow for 1 to 2 inches
of rain in an hour or less with storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
possible.

DISCUSSION...A broad region of fairly disorganized rainfall with
embedded pockets of thunderstorms was ongoing as of 0610Z across
southeastern NE into northern KS. This activity is what remains
from more robust convective activity that occurred earlier in the
night across central NE into northwestern KS. Several embedded
mesoscale circulations were embedded within the cluster spanning
from NE into KS, but most notably across south-central NE, about
20 miles northwest of Grand Island, in the form of a well-defined
mid-level vorticity max. A warm advection wing of convection was
located ahead of this mid-level circulation over southeastern NE
into northwestern KS, within a region of very weak deeper layer
steering flow. Peak MRMS-derived hourly rainfall has been in the
1-2 inch range over the past hour with this feature.

The environment over southeastern NE into northwestern MO
contained 3000 to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE and PWs of 1.9 to 2.3 inches
per 06Z SPC mesoanalysis data. The mid-level vorticity max is
forecast to track southeastward through 12Z around the
northeastern side of an expansive upper ridge centered over
eastern CO/NM. A favored zone for heavy rain is expected to
persist from portions of southeastern NE into northeastern KS and
possibly northwestern MO through 10Z. The orientation of the axis
of heavy rain aligned with the forecast track of the mid-level
circulation could result in locally very heavy rainfall with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and potential for storm total
rainfall in excess of 4 inches. Areas of flash flooding may occur
as a result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ZB4XjG3JCKZ8ETgK9AP6Ti3YbQwV35HY_vzxnYLoxwEHtX9IflVnOcxJ-62mcb9e8foGEbiWcTKiliC6MjebSfgVws$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41299752 40859571 40109439 39399413 38999481
39229604 39659726 40059914 40949913

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 07:44:28

AWUS01 KWNH 280744
FFGMPD
AZZ000-281300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0872
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...central to southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280741Z - 281300Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat associated with an MCS over
southeastern AZ will linger over southeastern AZ and possibly
impact portions of central AZ through 13Z. Hourly to sub-hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected on a localized basis.

DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite imagery from GOES East through
0715Z showed that cloud tops were warming overall in association
with an MCS along the eastern AZ/MX border, although bursts of
colder cloud tops and lightning were observed over southeastern AZ
into northeastern Sonora in the wake of the system. An MCV was
identified near I-19 in southern Santa Cruz County via radar
imagery with movement toward the WNW, beneath pronounced
anti-cyclonic outflow in the upper levels seen on water vapor
imagery. Instability has reduced over the past 3-hours by 500-1500
J/kg as seen in the 3-hr MUCAPE trend on the SPC mesoanalysis data
from 07Z, but with pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE remaining.

Despite the overall reduction in instability and warming as seen
in cloud tops on infrared imagery, a localized flash flood threat
will linger across portions of AZ for another few hours. This will
be as localized increases in instability occur along the outer
periphery of the MCS via contributions from outflow and low level
southerly flow from the Gulf of California into parts of central
AZ. In addition, subtle vorticity maxima over NM and Chihuahua,
embedded within the southwestern portion of an expansive upper
level ridge centered over the southern High Plains, are expected
to aid in localized convective development over the next 3-5 hours
as they encounter remaining pockets of instability. The
anomalously moist environment with PWs of at least 1.3 to 1.5
inches (per 06Z GPS data over southeastern AZ) will have the
potential to support high rainfall rates with 1 to 2 inches in
30-60 minutes. These lingering high rain rates will allow for at
least an isolated flash flood threat through the remainder of the
overnight over southeastern to central AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-E9OSdX-pO_q5z-1RVMkXGjLPtIp8TRvUH87LM4xpV9CjENxWtEMT-bLLByrB_MVZvCdGiNEZDmhRNNLuqljEXgfw0U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33921144 33461056 32770961 31990926 31040965
31081099 31391210 31881295 33081305 33801234

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 10:34:46

AWUS01 KWNH 281034
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0874
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
633 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...western/northern PA into western/central NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281032Z - 281600Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of flash flooding will remain possible
across portions of western/northern PA into western/central NY
through 16Z (12 PM EDT). Training of heavy rain will support
hourly totals of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher).

DISCUSSION...scattered thunderstorms were ongoing as of 1015Z
across central NY into western and northeastern PA. These storms
have had a history of generating widely scattered instances of
hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches over the past few hours but
coverage has been low so far. The storms were occurring out ahead
of a mid to upper-level shortwave trough and associated cold front
advancing SE across southern Ontario. A number of embedded
vorticity maxima were noted within the westerly to northwesterly
mid-level flow. One vorticity max in particular was observed over
northern Lake Erie, with blossoming convection just ahead of the
circulation, with additional development likely over portions of
northwestern PA and western NY within the next 1-3 hours.

Appreciable MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg was limited to a small region
of western NY in the vicinity of Buffalo into northeastern OH.
However, instability will expand across much of central NY into PA
this morning as daytime heating gets underway and continued
moisture advection from the southwest contributes to higher
dewpoints in the 925-850 mb layer. Additional forcing for ascent
will come as the upper trough axis over southern Ontario advances
east with increasing upper level diffluence and divergence within
the left-exit region of 90-110 kt jet streak near 200 mb advances
downstream. Individual cells are expected to track toward the east
with the deeper layer mean flow, but upstream development and repeating/training are likely to contribute to scattered areas of
training containing hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher)
in a few locations. Resulting rainfall totals through 16Z are
expected to range from 2 to 3 inches (locally higher) with areas
of flash flooding possible, especially should there be overlap
with urban areas or otherwise poorly draining locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9NQSBm9_JBO6eeEycCuBUQ9S2iCddYts4xOwVK73nKcjbYgW6gPL5rq5sUk6wd0XrQ-LkXeXRiauh6gJoa6rYZhfb0Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43947657 43897608 43337516 42247527 41267626
40797750 40417889 40708041 41328064 42008063
42358014 42577978 42967932 43457921 43617850
43787732

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 10:00:26

AWUS01 KWNH 280959
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0873
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280956Z - 281410Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from the
upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians through 14Z (10 AM).
Training of heavy rain will allow for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches (locally higher) with storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0935Z showed a region of
thunderstorms advancing southeastward from eastern and southern OH
with an embedded axis of training which passed through Columbus
around 08Z containing hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches. 0935Z
imagery showed an apparent MCV about 45 miles SSE of Columbus,
tracking nearly parallel to a warm front which was analyzed from
west-central OH into far southwestern WV at 09Z. A second
MCV-feature was observed over eastern OH, tracking toward western
PA. Instability has continued to increase across southern OH with
a 500 to 1000 J/kg increase in MLCAPE since 06Z per SPC
mesoanalysis data, owing to low level moisture advection from the
west. 09Z estimated MLCAPE was 250-750 J/kg with the ongoing
convective cluster in southern OH, while less than 250 J/kg was in
place farther north along the OH/PA border.

Low level westerly winds (40-50 kt at 850 mb) are likely to weaken
a bit over the next few hours but continue the advection of
moisture and instability toward the east over the next 3-5 hours.
Expectations are for convection to maintain along the leading edge
of the advancing instability gradient, which should move into
eastern KY, much of WV and portions of western VA and northeastern
TN through 14Z. The MCV over south-central OH is forecast to track southeastward in the near term, carrying the greatest short term
potential for training heavy rain of 1 to 2+ inches per hour into
WV. Additional convection may develop elsewhere across eastern KY
into the central Appalachians within the warm advection regime,
with isolated flash flood potential. Through 14Z. Storm total
rainfall of 2-4 inches will be possible, though these higher end
amounts should remain fairly isolated.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_XFJJSjzBiyaTSz6WnrIpDEFZql_I_jUXGBc3vtKSV4pjy_WlVGMxqYBOuWutT4Lw9WI9V7LNqjw7tlMZhPewqqdy8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40028123 39888034 39537996 39047978 38167988
36808100 35988233 35928355 36358420 37168426
38258373 39228310 39618254 39888202

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 14:04:30

AWUS01 KWNH 281404
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-282000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0875
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Southern West Virginia, Southwest Virginia,
Eastern Tennessee, and Western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281400Z - 282000Z

SUMMARY...2 inch/hour rainfall rates with a series of disturbances
riding along a warm front could cause additional flash flooding
into the mountains into this afternoon. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms moving southeastward along
a warm front that has banked along the southern Appalachians could
cause additional flash flooding into this afternoon. The storms
across southwestern West Virginia this morning have a history of
producing flash flooding due to multiple inch per hour rainfall
rates. The heaviest of the rain has now reached the southern tip
of West Virginia and will be heading into southwest Virginia over
the next few hours. Meanwhile a largely separate cluster of storms
over northeastern Tennessee will continue pressing southeastward
towards the Great Smoky Mountain N.P. As MUCAPE values remain in
the 1,000-1,500 J/kg range across far western North Carolina, it
appears the instability should allow for the storms to maintain
themselves into the convective minimum in the late morning as the
larger MCS transitions to surface based and much more widely
scattered convection across this region into this afternoon.

FFGs are particularly low along most of the VA/TN border, in the
1-1.5 inch/hour range. For the rest of the area highlighted in
this MPD, FFGs range between 1.5 and 2 inches per hour. Behind the
storms early this afternoon, instability is expected to rapidly
increase due to both maximum daytime heating as well as
instability advection from the west, peaking between 2,500 and
3,500 J/kg, with PWATs remaining around 1.75 inches. The plentiful
instability and moisture suggests that when afternoon storms fire
along the mountains this afternoon, they will be capable of
multiple inch/hour rainfall rates.

CAMs guidance (particularly the HRRR & RRFS) suggest the storms
this afternoon will come in multiple waves, tracking southward
across this region. While the storms should be fast-moving,
they'll follow one another, fairly closely, so minimal dry time is
expected in between. Given the already low FFGs in this region,
this could result in additional flash flooding. The storms could
continue, especially over Tennessee and North Carolina, beyond the
time of this discussion, so an update appears probable.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!64V_tPwmg0OhUXiNVp3Gbd2g2VoPSiXQfziOVWRtcn0YPqiYwvi7n7jF3ZAA3RDb8OfPU9aqTHzrohjqayabJF71M-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37978167 37708039 37408006 36928039 36688068
35718173 35238228 35168300 35258376 35528418
35948414 36548369 37038299 37638248 37858233

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 16:01:50

AWUS01 KWNH 281601
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0876
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Pennsylvania through Northern New
Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281600Z - 282200Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of storms will move through eastern
Pennsylvania and into New Jersey through the afternoon. The
strongest cores will be capable of 3 inch/hour rates, which are
likely to cause flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A very impressive shortwave trough over central
Pennsylvania this afternoon will provide the forcing for multiple
rounds of storms which will sweep northeastward across
southeastern Pennsylvania and into northern New Jersey today. The
first round of storms is moving across east-central Pennsylvania
now. This will likely serve to mostly prime the soils for later
rounds of storms. Where the convection gets held up, localized
flash flooding is probable. The main show as far as flash flooding
is concerned will be with the second round currently moving into
central PA now (not shown). This round of storms will also be
moving quickly, but due to destabilization of the column in
between rounds of storms, plentiful forcing both in the lower and
upper levels of the atmosphere, and robust moisture advection from
the west, the storms will have no trouble producing rates as high
as 3 inches per hour. One caveat to this first round not producing
much flash flooding is that widely scattered storms over far
eastern Pennsylvania near the Poconos and Delaware River, as well
as storms trying to form out ahead of this first line could cause
heavy rain to persist locally for far longer than the surrounding
areas as all of the convection sweeps through. This in turn could
cause localized flash flooding, particularly in any urban areas
such as Allentown.

CAMs guidance in general shows this first round of storms
continuing northeast into northern New Jersey, eventually
approaching the NYC metro, likely as a more congealed line.
However, the second round will follow right behind it. The second
round will grow upscale into its own cluster of storms, that
tracks east across southern Pennsylvania parallel to the
Mason-Dixon line, but likely adding new storms that form out ahead
of it. With this second round, scattered instances of urban and
small stream flash flooding are likely, with isolated instances of
significant flash flooding where the heaviest rains persist the
longest. By the 22Z end of this discussion, the storms should be
moving through Allentown and approaching the western suburbs of
Philadelphia. Thus, an update to this MPD is expected by then.

Finally, from Harrisburg northeast along the I-81 corridor, there
remains some uncertainty. The rain will likely be much more
consistent in this area, as well as have some of the best terrain
influences worsening any localized flash flooding, however major
instability (greater than 1,500 J/kg) will struggle to make it
that far north, so the flash flooding risk there has competing
factors to overcome, and will likely not be quite as widespread as
areas further east, especially the urban metros.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8VlYg8nQuUP_H7BSGqrWG3nqvwv6KpnjAt_-mUK_tiu_VTeYmbOkrqbYBasxd0yqokGXQQTVk8AzdWlIVfhYjLfbNNo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41487531 41387482 41167451 41007435 41007435
40727433 40447438 39997467 39787508 39697558
39767654 39797714 39917736 40197749 40437742
40657719 40997674 41207626 41317588

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 18:12:58

AWUS01 KWNH 281812
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-290000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0878
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Central Colorado and Northern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281810Z - 290000Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms forming along the Rockies will
develop into line segments as they advect east out over the
Plains. Flash flooding is likely from upslope enhancement in the
mountains, then from coverage and higher rainfall intensity over
the Plains.

DISCUSSION...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are developing
over the Colorado Rockies this afternoon. These storms are
expected to continue to grow upscale over the next few hours,
particularly those forming along the Front Ranges. Strong easterly
moisture advection is bringing PWATs over 1 inch into the Front
Range, with PWATs over 1.75 inches along the KS/CO border as
analyzed by the SPC Mesoanalysis. This influx of moisture will run
into eastward-moving storms that are forming over the mountains
but will advect eastward off the mountains and out onto the
Plains. As the storms run into increasingly unstable and
moisture-rich air, they will grow upscale into clusters and line
segments as they move into eastern Colorado. Increasingly heavy
rain will be a notable factor with any and all storms as they
progress eastward.

The storms that are currently developing over the mountains are
likely to cause locally heavy rain, which due to topography will
quickly convert to runoff and flash flooding today, especially
where the storms are the most persistent. FFGs are locally as low
as 1 inch per hour across southwestern Colorado. Further south
over New Mexico, a similar evolution is expected with the storms
advecting east off the mountains and towards the Panhandles by
this evening. Burn scars and other locally flood prone/low-lying
areas are the areas most vulnerable to the development of flash
flooding in this region.

CAMs guidance suggest most of the convection will move into the
Plains by this evening. However, some of the storms will remain
tied to the terrain, and will therefore continue to threaten
additional flash flooding over the Colorado mountains into this
evening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_mSDIqv5PCjjrFZm3DDKT5NOVGkeOO8SN7fOyhlk1blbsT_ULmbFuuJrag87h3lFTI8L6d42Hbfx61YuGRBHh6D0mos$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41400440 41050328 40520309 39220341 37130455
35700564 36780701 37810774 38450810 39690775
40720635 41350487

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 19:59:00

AWUS01 KWNH 281957
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-282356-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0879
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...northeastern New Jersey, southern New York State,
and western Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281956Z - 282356Z

Summary...A slow-moving cluster of storms will spread heavy
rainfall across much of the discussion area through the afternoon.
Areas of flash flooding are expected, with significant impacts
possible.

Discussion...A slow-moving cluster of storms currently extends
from near Poughkeepsie, NY southward along I-87 through Newark, NJ
and New Brunswick. The storms are embedded in roughly 20 knots of
mean steering flow aloft while oriented favorably for training.
Areas on the southern sides of the complex currently have the
greatest potential for training, where convective cells have
recently increased in intensity while drifting slowly northward
and merging. Flash flood potential will also peak in the short
term due to very slow cell movement. Given the airmass supporting
this activity (1.8 inch PW, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect ongoing thunderstorms to eventually begin producing 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates, which will readily cause runoff/flash flood issues given
the urban nature of ground conditions in the region. FFG
thresholds of 0.5-1 inch/hr will also be exceeded at times.

The current trek of the cluster will result in scattered
thunderstorms and 1-2 inch/hr rain rates spreading more into
southern New York State (including White Plains, Yorktown, and New
York City Metro) and adjacent areas of southwestern Connecticut
(near Stamford) over the next 1-3 hours. Any upstream development
over central New Jersey will also have to be monitored carefully
for intensification and merging into the complex, resulting in
potential prolonging of rain rates and worsening flash flood
potential. Local amounts of 3-5 inches are expected through 2300Z
- especially across far northeastern New Jersey.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Kz8SK5m0s7AsV4Z5ucRvJ841F1s7_H80gi4ioawEeWd8NTDzj7y2-IsLAy6HGvgc_vXxJcCqj_nn9RcmG3gvWt2CkY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42357301 41697242 40867253 39787456 41307472
42107415

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 20:54:12

AWUS01 KWNH 282054
FFGMPD
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-290152-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0880
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and the
District of Columbia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282052Z - 290152Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible - especially as
storms over the Appalachians reach the I-95 Urban Corridor between
Washington, D.C.; Baltimore; and surrounding areas.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have increased in coverage
across the Appalachians generally from Frederick, MD southwest to
Harrisonburg, VA. The storms are moving southeastward at about
15-25 knots or so, and with southeastward progression, they'll
encounter a more moist airmass characterized by 1.9 inch PW and
sufficient instability (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) for strong to intense
convection and heavy rainfall. The presence of towering cumulus
and isolated showers ahead of this convection suggests potential
for mergers that could also prolong rain rates over the next 2-4
hours. Storms should also reach more sensitive ground conditions (urban/hydrophobic surfaces near DC/Baltimore and the general
vicinity), promoting excessive runoff and flash flood potential.

On the current path, storms should reach the I-95/DC to Baltimore
urban corridor between 2130-23Z (5:30p-7p eastern). These storms
will have potential for 1-2 inch/hr rain rates that will readily
exceed local FFG in a few spots (especially urban areas). Flash
flood potential will likely maximize during that timeframe and
persist eastward toward Delaware and eastern Maryland through at
least 01Z (9p eastern).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6TNmyNgwgG3UFoBD-4F_v2YVRpRBttIED7lajkm6PvldMz3ZfySTeyivgmkF_TrBXtp6nXkrH6rjk1FtTqEtaisoxB4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39777735 39707575 38867506 37807532 37497658
37587847 38777871 39407811

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 21:15:48

AWUS01 KWNH 282115
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-290313-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0881
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
514 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona, western New Mexico, and
southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282113Z - 290313Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are producing locally heavy
rainfall in a climatologically favored monsoon regime. Areas of
flash flooding could occur in a few areas through 03Z/9p mountain
time.

Discussion...Areas of scattered thunderstorms are moving
northwestward across the discussion area, with the greatest
concentrations currently extending from Kingman to Page, AZ and
from near Show Low, AZ to near Gallup, NM. The storms are slow
moving due to weak southeasterly steering flow on the southern
periphery of an upper ridge centered over New Mexico.
Additionally, storms are in a sufficiently moist/unstable
environment (1.1-1.4 inch PW) for locally heavy rainfall, with
rates exceed 1 inch/hr at times. The rates are high enough to
cause occasional flash flood issues particularly in low spots/slot
canyons and other sensitive terrain. Enough instability/moisture
exists for storms to persist into southern Utah as well over the
next 1-4 hours. FFG thresholds (around 1 inch/hr) will be readily
exceeded beneath the most dominant storms.

Models/CAMs suggest that the ongoing activity will continue to
drift northwestward while continuing heavy rainfall potential
through at least 02Z/8p mountain. Thereafter, storms (and flash
flood potential) should undergo a weakening/downward trend due to
loss of daytime heating and nocturnal boundary layer stabilization.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9I1iEIFOgDjvV_LsRJcwrNNdHzlcre_4dSEOGpZDAYBToM5eOjHEVxJMpnBx6TTPQhXU1rgUegI3T24IKyy6WKDQkVk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38771271 38751148 37861046 36930916 36440768
35290728 33660755 32870815 32540955 33321215
35511393 38031374

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 22:10:56

AWUS01 KWNH 282210
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-290409-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0882
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey,
southern New York State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282209Z - 290409Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues for the northern
Mid-Atlantic into southern New York State.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorm continue to migrate slowly eastward/northeastward across the discussion area. Latest radar
depicts a couple of dominant storm modes: 1) a linear complex
approaching southeastern Pennsylvania extending from near Reading
to near Oxford and Bel Air, MD and 2) more scattered cells and
mergers occurring from Reading northeastward toward New Brunswick,
NJ. The storms remain in a favorable environment for heavy
rainfall, with modest southwesterly steering flow aloft promoting
slow storm motions and nearly 2 inch PW/1500 J/kg MLCAPE promoting
heavy rainfall beneath the storms. 25 kt low-level flow and
ascent aloft from approaching mid-level shortwave troughs also
appear supportive of ongoing convection continuing for another few
hours.

Models/obs all favor slow eastward progression of ongoing
thunderstorm activity. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates will occur
on a scattered basis, and local 3 inch/hr amounts are possible on
an isolated basis. These rates are likely to cause flash flooding
at times in several areas, with particular concern in urban and
flood-sensitive areas from Philadelphia northeastward to New York
City metros and areas near Reading, Allentown, and Easton. Storms
may reach the eastern parts of the discussion area (eastern NJ and
vicinity) by 03Z/11p eastern or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8lDsdnFv3qAzmZuefTs11MB1ElYbeyhszMvcyoE4fd1gCH1dxn_wsPKNGq5IsbnqFCTxqVv6Dc59O0Xjgga1jjZJ1zI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41667375 41037270 39777396 39157465 39657565
39857657 40367652 41057570 41597511

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 00:35:36

AWUS01 KWNH 290035
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-290433-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0883
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
834 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado, western Kansas, southwestern
Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290033Z - 290433Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms continue to migrate slowly
southeastward across the central High Plains. Isolated to
scattered flash flood potential exists.

Discussion...Earlier convection across the High Plains of Colorado
and adjacent areas of southwestern Nebraska have begun the process
of congealing into forward-propagating clusters while migrating
southeastward through the discussion area. Satellite
representation of this activity remains impressive, which isn't
surprising given steep mid-level lapse rates (~7C/km) supporting
intense updrafts. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were noted over
the past hour (per MRMS) east of Pueblo and from near Akron/Yuma
south to I-70 in eastern Colorado. These rates were locally
exceeding FFG, and spotty flash flood impacts remain possible with
this activity. Additional storms in southwestern Nebraska (near
Oshkosh) were also producing spotty 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates that
were approaching FFG locally.

Ongoing flash flood potential should continue on an isolated to
scattered basis as these storms move eastward. Upscale growth
into forward-propagating clusters is underway and should help
storms persist eastward to at least the CO/KS border and portions
of far western Kansas. At some point though, hostile upper-level
conditions (around -3C temps at 500mb in SW KS) may work against
persistence of storms on a widespread basis especially east of US
83. Flash flood potential should gradually decrease with eastward
extent in tandem with any lessening of convective coverage.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4oEH13NSh80y-ezULd0OwDASkTeg8D2iy4W0zCOxcgcyCbqyWpzoT7RmJmJTRiixngQkq5he3qSg3TW14pvKUx3-qoE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41340188 40950108 39880079 38390118 37290416
38420543 39440483 41080355

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 04:28:26

AWUS01 KWNH 290428
FFGMPD
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-290930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0884
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1226 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...eastern NY/NJ, Long Island into southern New
England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290425Z - 290930Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact
portions of eastern NY/NJ, Long Island into southern New England
over the next 4-5 hours. Training and repeating rounds of heavy
rain are likely to result in flash flooding with 2 to 4 inches of
rain (locally higher) through 10Z (6 AM EDT).

Discussion...GOES East water vapor and area radar imagery at 04Z
showed a number of low to mid-level vorticity maxima over southern
NY into NJ, located just ahead of a mid-level trough axis that
extended southward through central NY into eastern PA and southern
NJ. These mesoscale circulations were slow moving and associated
with locally enhanced moisture convergence and areas of heavy
rain. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall has peaked in the 1-2 inch
range since 01Z over portions of NJ into southern NY with a number
of flash flood warnings ongoing across the region. The environment
over the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England was
characterized by weak MLCAPE of <1000 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7
inches (04Z SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z OKX sounding)

The larger scale mid-level trough axis is forecast by the RAP to
slowly shift eastward over the next 6 hours with a more pronounced
mid-level vorticity over southern NJ expected to advance more
toward the northeast. Out ahead of these mid-level features will
be ~20-30 kt of 925-850 mb southerly flow which will feed from
locally higher moisture/instability just off of the East Coast.
Development of showers/thunderstorms are expected near the NJ
coast and south of Long Island, with northward translation into
the overnight. The lower level winds will promote areas of
training and repeating rounds of heavy rain given mean steering
flow from south to north of 10-20 kt, with even slower mean flow
over the Catskills and lower Hudson Valley. The environment will
be supportive of continued peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher) which should contribute to a localized rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) through 10Z (6 AM EDT)
due to the slow movement of heavy rain cores. Areas of flash
flooding will continue to be likely, especially where heavy
rainfall has already occurred over the past 12 hours and with any
overlap of urban locations or sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5twPvAEEeWxR_Ss9TqWj7C0P-haIs27IrHk2RVJkfEf0DYwJ0iTIfswDVs-OImcXyfSgAvN3KQi9ZRcbbJ99RQYmqws$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43787375 43637323 43287303 42397282 41617244
40947224 40087276 39677350 39657423 40307419
41117426 41757493 42437504 43007453 43647403

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 07:19:22

AWUS01 KWNH 290719
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-291230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0885
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...southern NE into northern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290716Z - 291230Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will pose a risk of flash
flooding to portions of southern NE and northern KS through 13Z.
Hourly rain may exceed 2 inches on an isolated basis with storm
totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher).

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the last 45 minutes ending at 0645Z
showed the development of slow moving cluster of thunderstorms
over southwestern NE, on either side of I-80 between North Platte
and Lexington. Additional, more isolated convection has also
formed ESE of this region over southern NE, as far east as US 77.
This development appears to be related to a strengthening low
level jet represented by 25-30 kt of southerly 850 mb flow noted
in the KDDC VAD wind profile. The cells are likely rooted just
above 850 mb per RAP analysis soundings, overrunning a
subtle/shallow surface front analyzed near the KS/OK border, and a
remnant west-east oriented rain-cooled boundary near the southern
NE border. A more prominent outflow boundary was noted to be
advancing eastward across western KS, related to weakening
convection near the southern CO/KS border.

The low level jet is likely near peak strength according to RAP
forecasts, but some veering of the low level flow is forecast over
east-central KS through 12Z. Continued isentropic lift atop the
leading edge of warmer air to the south should continue some
degree of mostly disorganized elevated convection over southern
NE/northern KS through the remainder of the night. Additional
development and increasing coverage of cells is expected into
northern KS, southeast of ongoing activity in southwestern NE
later in the night. Despite the expectation of disorganized cells,
much of NE into northern KS is caught within a weakness of the
deeper layer mean flow. 0-6 km AGL mean layer winds are less than
10 kt area wide and even less than 5 kt in a few locations. This
should contribute to slow cell movement with heavy rain rates
given PW values ranged from 1.9 to 2.1 inches (00Z area soundings
and SPC mesoanalysis data from 07Z). Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches and storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher
rates/totals possible) can be expected through 13Z. While coverage
of these higher amounts is uncertain, current thinking is that
they should be widely scattered in nature. Flash flooding may
develop as a result of localized heavy rain rates.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!657IbYNK7Nw4UaJIrv_cXJQC1kWKt860Zx6gduOKcQG--wl-QmttwGKGR5ikW7dFFafSVu7XJsyBgSTvOCegWx90g4g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41310015 41239851 40699706 39979624 39419599
38869619 38709682 38879751 39379870 39810044
40490090 41090079

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 09:44:36

AWUS01 KWNH 290944
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-291515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0886
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
543 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...Long Island, far northern NJ into eastern NY and
southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290942Z - 291515Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to
produce areas of flash flooding across eastern NY into southern
New England and Long Island this morning. Slow moving areas of
heavy rain are expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of
rain in some locations through 15Z (11 AM EDT).

Discussion...Area radar imagery at 0915Z showed a slow moving
corridor of heavy rain impacting the Hudson Valley containing
observed hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher). Farther
south, another axis of heavy rain was slowly pivoting east across
central Suffolk County into western CT. Despite weak instability
of about 500 J/kg or less, the region remained in a favorable
environment for heavy rain, positioned just ahead of a slow moving
low aloft with numerous mid-level vortices helping to focus
locally higher rainfall rates over inland locations. A surface/850
mb low has become rather well defined about 25 miles south of
Farmingdale, with 25-35 kt of southerly to south-southeasterly
925-850 mb flow transporting PWs of 1.7 to 2.0 inches across Long
Island into southwestern CT and eastern NY. Similarly oriented low
level and deeper layer steering flow has promoted training and
repeating rounds of heavy rain beneath diffluent and divergent
flow just east of the upper low over northeastern PA.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show the 850 mb low slowly
tracking north over the next 6 hours with the low level moisture
transport axis to its east pivoting eastward across Long Island
into southern New England. By 15Z, the low should be over
southwestern CT with low level southeasterly to easterly winds
across southern New England converging into a deformation zone
along the eastern NY border with CT/MA. It is here that the
highest additional rainfall totals may occur with slow moving
hourly rainfall values of 1 to 2+ inches over multiple hours.
While a single location may not see 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall
continuously, the eastern NY into southwestern New England region
will be in a favorable location for periodic occurrences of higher
rainfall intensities. Terrain influences may factor into flash
flood severity. Given locally heavy rain across eastern NY into
portions of New England over the past 24-28 hours, flash flooding
could be locally significant this morning. Areas of flash flooding
will continue to be likely this morning with likely disruptions to
the morning commute and across locations of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!53oRGEAzwKTiMXg4sVjZ6d1bCVigzFVJF2BwfOyZEeQvHfXLBdHk2TGzFL75Mct5aXbLKiRryuQsi9lkrYIMljJsm5o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44117359 43967308 43607279 43027248 41957166
41337131 40937158 40667220 40467347 40657387
41177437 42237467 43407457 43937418

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 19:11:48

AWUS01 KWNH 031911
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-040030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0934
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031908Z - 040030Z

SUMMARY...The potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches (spot max
of 3 inches) will maintain at least an isolated flash flood threat
across New England through about 00Z. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches is expected with the threat ending from west to east into
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery across the Northeast over the
past 3 hours showed weakening associated with
showers/thunderstorms over southeastern New England, while new shower/thunderstorm development was underway to the west. 1845Z
radar imagery showed a narrow axis of higher reflectivity
extending along the VT/NH border into western MA and along the
NY/CT border, just ahead of a cold front. The 18Z SPC mesoanalysis
showed MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in place from CT into central MA,
VT/NH and western ME along with PWs that increased from 1.8 inches
near the cold front to about 2.3 inches along the coast of
southeastern New England.

The RAP forecasts the cold front to track east through New
England, clearing much of the region by 00Z. This progressive
motion should limit much of flash flood threat over the next 3-5
hours as cells are not likely to remain over any given location
for too long. However, portions of southern VT/NH into central and
western MA/CT have lowered flash flood guidance values of about 1
inch or less in an hour. Hourly flash flood guidance of up to 2
inches or higher is in place for the remaining portions of New
England. There is some potential for line segments to push out
ahead more quickly than portions to the south, setting up
alignment with the mean southwesterly steering flow and supporting
brief training. This would allow for hourly rainfall totals of 1-2
inches and potential for flash flooding. Through 00Z, additional
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected for portions of New England,
with a spot maximum total up to 3 inches possible. Isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding may occur through
about 00Z, at which point the deeper moisture should have moved
out of most of the region, ending the flash flood threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8m6y-5s-KMrEIJYgKSV_6Y4JCm22GxxzPZBH7iwMoUriHB6PAy7FRT1Rq5B5_ES1sj24Ax82Mt8aBJyt8cvndUEur3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45797017 45686954 45196932 44116939 42537013
41457126 41117280 41127343 41367365 42107333
43427227 45127122 45647069

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 21:05:26

AWUS01 KWNH 032105
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0935
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern New Mexico and Southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032103Z - 040200Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms have formed across portions of
southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. These storms
could produce up to 1.5 inch/hour rainfall rates over flood-prone
areas, which could lead to flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Storms associated with the ongoing summer monsoon
have developed over southwestern New Mexico and southeastern
Arizona this afternoon. These storms have formed over
flood-sensitive areas, especially local burn scars and slot
canyons. Flash flooding will be possible where heavy rains occur
over those flood-sensitive areas.

SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs over portions of southern Arizona
west of Nogales over 1.5 inches, with over an inch PWATs over all
but far northern portions of the discussion area. The storms have
a history of producing rainfall rates over an inch per hour. Given
the daily storms that have formed and tracked over these flood
sensitive areas over the past several days, soils remain sensitive
to additional rainfall. Instability values in the area are between
1,000 and 2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, except along the immediate Mexican
border areas from Nogales east, where instability is a bit higher
than 2,000 J/kg. This instability should more than supper
additional thunderstorm development over these areas of extreme
southeastern Arizona where 1-hr FFG values are between 1 and 1.5
inches.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms will continue forming in
clusters and individual cells across the discussion area for the
rest of the afternoon. The typical waning of thunderstorm activity
with the loss of daytime heating will once again end the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-WRbvv-GAjG7YOH51iopfmmdSS-uSS8mn8UN0ast7EmUUtyfOT3rMBYeZZG46zbPZ73Hg0ZzvZFGDmTaxC1dX4LzzjI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34470879 34340773 34120703 33320752 32570773
31930831 31330845 31321129 31771255 32551187
32931130 33181092 33671069 34061052 34231069
34421008

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 21:41:36

AWUS01 KWNH 032141
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0936
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032139Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...A few clusters of storms developing just inland from the
coast of the Carolinas have a history of producing rainfall rates
to 3 inches/hour. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms have developed along the sea
breeze front in the coastal Carolinas this afternoon. These storms
have a history of producing rainfall rates to 3 inches per hour
based on radar estimates. FFGs are generally between 2 and 3
inches per hour, so these storms have been at times exceeding
those values, so flash flooding is possible. The areas where these
values have been the most greatly exceeded is where cell mergers
with the clusters have resulted in abnormally long periods of
heavy rain, so most areas have stayed below these FFG thresholds
so far. However, given much of the coast is urbanized to some
extent, local flash flooding thresholds could be lower.

This area has been hit repeatedly over the past few days with
afternoon thunderstorms, so NASA Sport imagery shows surface soils
are significantly wetter than normal in some spots.
Meteorologically, the storms are forming ahead of a shortwave
trough over the Southeast, with a front stuck near the mountains.
The primary forcing for these storms is sea breeze and frictional
convergence due to southerly winds along the coast. As on past
days, PWATs are very high, generally between 2.2 and 2.4 inches
from SPC Mesoanalysis, leading to MUCAPE values between 2,000 and
3,000 J/kg. These factors should continue to support additional
thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

CAMs guidance shows most of the strongest storm activity staying
off the coast, which has not been the case so far. Meanwhile, most
of them showing the current convection, all of them underdone,
pretty quickly dissipating over the next couple hours. Seeing no
reason why the storms should largely dissipate into showers, have
opted towards a persistence forecast in this area considering the
pattern over the past several days has supported it. Urban and
small stream flash flooding is possible in areas further inland
such as Augusta and Columbia where more widely scattered, but
nonetheless heavy rain capable storms have been forming.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_fFXq7LjF9IOcOzpHpfLx_yTUAN2NJ1yRbowptvwVgTaSP1srLYNmWqXT70lmCXzFpxoHcPJdQXDG2xnpBXn_1Kr68g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35107868 34937793 34717635 32477966 32048079
32338106 32598126 32998172 33378213 33708245
33978191 34538089 34917962

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 15:16:18

AWUS01 KWNH 041516
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-042114-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0937
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1115 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of Georgia, far southwestern North
Carolina, far southeastern Tennessee, and upstate South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041514Z - 042114Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with isolated/localized flash flood
potential will gradually increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon hours (21Z/5p eastern).

Discussion...Deep convection has recently materialized over/near
the Atlanta area, with more isolated activity noted across
northern Georgia and the Chattanooga, TN area. The storms were
developing beneath a nearly stationary upper low centered over
northern GA, with thermodynamic characteristics (1500 J/kg MLCAPE,
1.8 inch PW values) supporting heavy rainfall with the developing
activity. Abundant towering cumulus via satellite imagery
suggests that convection will gradually increase in coverage over
the next couple hours, with areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
becoming common -- primary due to very weak steering flow aloft
and slow convective cell movement.

Models/CAMS also support the expected evolution of this activity
(increasing convective coverage). Hourly FFG thresholds are
relatively high across central GA (around 2+ inch/hr), but
decrease with northward extent into southeastern TN and the
southern Appalachians where 1.5 inch/hr is more common. Flash
flood potential will be slightly higher where lower FFG thresholds
are present, while urban excessive runoff cannot be ruled out
(particularly near Atlanta Metro).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7KADVSQMqNOo7DiGOG1tAX2qJFF5Ue0jt0Teaxk2Rp6lkfvbqXNzq09NVqQkZRFAUYlVfBTNxxGQ3lMpdVUD_SX45lc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35978289 35098231 33388299 32918494 34578545
35568472

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 02:18:16

AWUS01 KWNH 020218
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-020800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0921
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1016 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Eastern TN...Northern GA...Northeast
AL... Western NC, Upstate SC and Far Western VA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020220Z - 020800Z

SUMMARY...Increasing deep layer forcing should maintain convective
activity in a narrowing warm sector across the Cumberland Plateau.
Ample deep layer moisture and flux convergence will allow for up
to 2"/hr rates and multiple lines may allow for repeating random
intersections for spots of 2-4" totals across increasingly complex
terrain. Localized flash flooding remains possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows classic elongating deep layer
cyclone over the Midwest with impressive mid-level dry slot across
Middle-TN into central KY as jet speed max is starting to round
the base of the elongated SW to NE deeper layer cyclone. This
will help direct circulation FGEN along the advancing cold front
as noted by trend of continued convective development along the
length from NE KY across eastern Middle TN into northern AL and
east-central MS. Pre-frontal warm sector clusters also exist
given solid surface to mid-level moisture flux confluence across
NE AL/N GA into eastern TN with the southwest slopes of the
Appalachians further compressing the zone for increased localized
convergence for convective initiation. As such Regional RADAR
mosaic denotes a few bands of cells advancing eastward into slower moving/banked up cells (Monroe to Fannin to Lumpkin counties).

Total PWats are reaching 2-2.25" in a narrow band in the warm
conveyor belt up through eastern KY/SW WV. Given steepening lapse
rates aloft due to mid-level drying, the instability axis remains
west of the moisture with 1500-2250 J/kg
of MLCAPE to support vigorous updraft strength and enhanced
moisture flux. As such, cells will have capability of 2-2.25"/hr
rates and while generally progressive, a few cells along the lower
slopes as well as multiple lines, may allow for increased
residency and/or repeating to support localized 2-4" totals
through the overnight period.

FFG values across the area are generally 1-1.5"/hr in E KY/TN
increasing to 1.5-2" into N GA with another minimum near
Birmingham and the far southwestern foothills of the Appalachians
in NE AL; while 3 hr FFG are 1.5-3". This suggests a solid
potential for localized exceedance of flash flooding both in
initial hour but also with those random intersections of repeating
across the area.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9UXTcUzxhzzfXayN4pQggGbYd6plGQ9JAgmuImMx8xEqtQnVvEt35D5lcAc8GbH-auTOeB9bPYb2J40zUXSiLNgb5F0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37918368 37908319 37608266 37018265 36288273
35968273 36008186 35928155 35468174 34608308
34068390 33258557 33088676 33388743 33998726
34338701 35178596 36108500 36678468 37248427

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 04:26:56

AWUS01 KWNH 020426
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-020900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0922
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Slopes of Applachians of Upstate SC...
Western NC...Southwest VA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020425Z - 020900Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing significant flash flooding likely to continue
and expand in coverage along the eastern upslope regions of the
Southern Appalachians. Reports of 5-7" have already occurred while
other focused cores are reaching 3"+.

DISCUSSION...Hi-Res CAMs have been persistent in weakening
convection along the eastern upslope region of the Appalachians
from Western NC into SW VA for the last few cycles as the warm air
deepens and leading edge of moisture flux convergence reaches the
upper heights of the terrain with weakening instability and wind
fields veering in the forecast guidance. However, surface
observations continue to show southeasterly surface and southerly
925-850mb winds in the VWP network while still having 3-5 degrees
of dew-point depressions, all while moisture flux through depth
and surface Tds continue to slowly rise.

RAP analysis shows 500-750mb of uncapped MLCAPE along the upslope
region and GOES-E 3.9um animation depict continued convective
vigor/pulsing rather than increased glaciation of cloud tops.
CIRA LPW shows surface to 850mb larger remains above .8" with slow
increase at 850-700mb layer toward .6" and overall totals nearing
2" along the lower slopes and with VWP increasing in the wake of
the warm front toward 20-25kts; moisture flux will continue to
support increasing rainfall rates within the shallow convection.

The worst convective area had been near Mount Airy/Pilot Mountain
where RADAR appears to have been overestimating the rates
significantly from KRNK but observations of 2-2.5"/hr for a few
hours has resulted in localized 5-7" totals in the last 2-3hrs
resulting in a significant flash flooding signal. While MRMS
Flash is likely overestimated due to the inflated rates, there is
a broadening area of near 1000 cfs/sq. mi indicative of
significant flash flooding especially given complex terrain. This
cell had had a longer life than other convective cells, but
coverage in 3.9um/10.3um IR imagery in W NC continues to slightly
increase with observations starting to reach 2-3" totals.

RAP forecast has been a bit more realistic in maintaining
convective/rainfall capabilities compared to the HRRR which tends
to dissipate convection too quickly in a reducing instability
environment; so this suggests capability for continued convective
activity through the early morning is more probable and spots of
add'l 2-4"+ remain likely through the overnight period from W NC
across SW to West-central VA eastern slopes of the Appalachians,
especially as shortwave energy continues to lift northeastward
along and west of the Appalachians maintaining very moist upslope
conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TVUXo-SOUbr_DU9M_9IAxo2nMpxSrtv8dWP9J9gocAKm09QXZFRaGfPufocPWKspuXhZ3JmAtxAZHjI0hlk6UJJk0M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37897963 37607940 36957957 36188055 35198192
34898233 34738282 34788326 35108343 35598291
36328180 36918102 37718028

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 10:02:40

AWUS01 KWNH 021002
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0923
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Western PA...Central to Northern WV... Adj.
Eastern OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021000Z - 021500Z

SUMMARY...Increasing scattered convection with potential for
multiple rounds of storms may result in localized incident(s) of
flash flooding given rates of 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2.5" totals by
late morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows elongating positive tilt
mid-level trough/occluded surface low over the lower Ohio Valley
with a broadening dry slot across much of Ohio and warm conveyor
belt narrowing out of the Cumberland Plateau into the Upper Ohio
River Valley. CIRA LPW shows band of enhanced moisture from
surface to 500mb across W PA, WV into far eastern KY but also a
connecting bridge of surface to 700mb moisture out of the
Mid-Atlantic (from the eastern Atlantic) trying to over-top the
peak of the Appalachian chain. A subtle shortwave can be seen
near the Cumberland Gap of SE KY/W VA with downstream short-wave
ridging associating with expanding divergent mid to upper-level
flow across WV. While heating is clearly a problem overnight, the
warm conveyor still has some modest low-level remaining warm air
and steepening lapse rates from drying aloft just west of the warm
conveyor, there is a narrow axis of increasing instability with
MUCAPE values increasing 200-400 J/kg over the last 3 hours across
the upper-Ohio Valley into 750-1000 J/kg range.

A SW to NE confluence axis along and north of the warm front still
south across E KY/W VA, is isentropically ascending with a weak
convergence toward the western branch resulting in some weak but
sufficient low-level moisture convergence. Combined with the
expanding divergence aloft, shallow thunderstorms have been
expanding across the Stovepipe of WV into W PA, with further
scattered development closer to the surface front in SW WV. Given
deep layer moisture and TPW toward 2", increasing efficiency is
expected with the shallow cells with rain rates increasing above
1"/hr with a spot or two of 1.25-1.5"/hr becoming possible over
the next few hours. Forward propagation may limit overall totals
to a similar range; however, the upstream environment will likely
support scattered development for possible repeating. As such,
isolated spots of 1.5-2.5" totals are possible through morning
hours; with very slow eastward progression of the occluded/cold
front and therefore warm conveyor belt toward the spine of the
Appalachians.

Hydrologically, complex terrain makes hourly FFG values in 1-1.5"
and between 2-2.5" for 3hrs which is at the threshold of
exceedance suggesting isolated to widely scattered incident or two
of flash flooding remain possible this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_4Oo8vpTeM5WzOrtsn-bQ48tbGW6g_nhZO8ptgTIY_dVukj2WAVc8MMPMjIZvuUgWueRT9gjb4xlUevouL5CfqsChwM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41947842 41647745 40807778 40137842 39347921
38618018 38058120 38358191 39068185 40308098
41138022 41757929

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 14:16:32

AWUS01 KWNH 021416
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0924
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Far Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021414Z - 021900Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms
with high rainfall rates may support some areas of flash flooding
going through mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows rapidly cooling
convective tops across portions of the FL Panhandle as showers and thunderstorms are seen expanding in coverage and gradually
advancing off to the east-northeast. The activity is focused
within a confluent low-level flow regime southeast of a cold front
slowly dropping into the Southeast U.S.

The airmass across the northeast Gulf Coast region is very moist
and unstable with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg, and PWs near
2.25 inches. Modestly divergent flow aloft coupled with at least a
weak corridor of moisture convergence should tend to support this
convective activity maintaining itself in the near-term which is
supported by the latest HRRR and RRFS solutions.

Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour will be likely with the
stronger storms given the level of moisture and instability that
is in place, and with slow cell-motions and potentially some
occasional cell-training, some localized 3 to 5 inch rainfall
totals will be possible through mid-afternoon.

The activity at least for the next few hours will tend to largely
be impacting areas of the FL Panhandle, but some of this
convection may edge into far southwest GA by early this afternoon.
Given the high rainfall rates and localized storm potential, some
areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_TT-dq-d9BbE60sg72oP88u6TOXns3S56jTxrI-VekllNcWmFDAEt-kwWWGSPfKs_R6re3MJfwdLnXlYNhI2br7fScs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31308431 31128358 30628344 30228382 29818464
29788546 30008592 30428619 30708592 31098521

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 16:32:40

AWUS01 KWNH 021632
FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-022230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0925
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Interior of the Central Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021630Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
very high rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour may result in an urban
flash flood threat going through the afternoon hours. This will
include areas near I-95 from northern VA into southeast PA.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows a cluster of thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates tending to gain organization and coverage to the
southwest of Washington D.C. and very close to Fredericksburg, VA.
This convective cluster is exhibiting some weak mesocyclone
tendencies as it advances off to the north-northeast.

3-hour MUCAPE differentials confirm an uptick in instability
across northern VA on up through central MD and into southeast PA,
with the nose of 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE magnitudes noted. This
coincides with the nose of high PWs, with values locally exceeding
2 inches. This environment will be highly conducive for the
ongoing convection to sustain itself and locally expand in
coverage as differential heating along the I-95 corridor helps to
tighten and locally strengthen the instability gradient. Visible
satellite images show substantial solar insolation taking place
across southern MD up through far northeast MD and into southeast
PA to support this.

The thermodynamic environment favors extreme rainfall rate
potential with the 12Z RAOB data from KIAD and KRNK showing a
substantial moisture and elevated WCL depths advancing up across
the Mid-Atlantic. The instability uptick along with the moisture
will support rainfall rates locally exceeding 2 inches/hour with
the organizing areas of showers and thunderstorms.

The latest hires CAMs are not doing well in handling the ongoing
convective activity, but based on the latest satellite and radar
trends, some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall swaths will be
possible where these organizing convective clusters focus and
locally train over the same area. Already the convection has some
linear segments aligned with the deeper layer south-southwest flow
to favor cell-training.

The setup going through through the afternoon hours will support
an urban flash flood near and adjacent to the I-95 corridor from
Washington D.C. through Baltimore and at least some areas of
southeast PA from Lancaster on down to Philadelphia.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-v197v5c8mQZhnWCjf1L5JTPIcx9U0kE6sPj3HR6P42aGG4gtqp-W6P6WklR_Ll5dsZAdCH3ow7ZxVrW1-4QBBCY4Kg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 31308431 31128358 30628344 30228382 29818464
29788546 30008592 30428619 30708592 31098521

40667559 40407508 39797514 38687577 37937644
37497705 37497785 37907827 38797805 39497764
40297689 40627627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 16:58:04

AWUS01 KWNH 021657
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-022230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0925
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Interior of the Central Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021630Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
very high rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour may result in an urban
flash flood threat going through the afternoon hours. This will
include areas near I-95 from northern VA into southeast PA.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows a cluster of thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates tending to gain organization and coverage to the
southwest of Washington D.C. and very close to Fredericksburg, VA.
This convective cluster is exhibiting some weak mesocyclone
tendencies as it advances off to the north-northeast.

3-hour MUCAPE differentials confirm an uptick in instability
across northern VA on up through central MD and into southeast PA,
with the nose of 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE magnitudes noted. This
coincides with the nose of high PWs, with values locally exceeding
2 inches. This environment will be highly conducive for the
ongoing convection to sustain itself and locally expand in
coverage as differential heating along the I-95 corridor helps to
tighten and locally strengthen the instability gradient. Visible
satellite images show substantial solar insolation taking place
across southern MD up through far northeast MD and into southeast
PA to support this.

The thermodynamic environment favors extreme rainfall rate
potential with the 12Z RAOB data from KIAD and KRNK showing a
substantial moisture and elevated WCL depths advancing up across
the Mid-Atlantic. The instability uptick along with the moisture
will support rainfall rates locally exceeding 2 inches/hour with
the organizing areas of showers and thunderstorms.

The latest hires CAMs are not doing well in handling the ongoing
convective activity, but based on the latest satellite and radar
trends, some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall swaths will be
possible where these organizing convective clusters focus and
locally train over the same area. Already the convection has some
linear segments aligned with the deeper layer south-southwest flow
to favor cell-training.

The setup going through through the afternoon hours will support
an urban flash flood near and adjacent to the I-95 corridor from
Washington D.C. through Baltimore and at least some areas of
southeast PA from Lancaster on down to Philadelphia.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Zts2kAcClk5O79S3GkBg4QnWNzlvx4wxEqnKe8OG7vSEVrzc13Tmcq2_mPJy8dxgD9SXeDY0u7FoKG0dYDTArJPvw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40667559 40407508 39797514 38687577 37937644
37497705 37497785 37907827 38797805 39497764
40297689 40627627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 17:28:18

AWUS01 KWNH 021728
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-022315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0926
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley...Lower Great
Lakes...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021726Z - 022315Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will foster some areas of flash flooding going through the
afternoon and early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E GeoColor visible satellite imagery
along with radar data shows developing and gradually expanding
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Upper OH
Valley, Lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. This is being
facilitated by the presence of a deep layer trough/closed low
which is interacting with a destabilizing boundary layer and
plenty of moisture.

MLCAPE values have risen to 1000 to 1500 J/kg locally, and
additional solar insolation, especially across the Upper OH
Valley, should drive an uptick in this instability over the next
few hours. PWs are locally on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, and
this coupled with the instability will favor convective cells
capable of producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates.

Over the next few hours, expanding clusters of convection are
expected which will be capable of some cell-training given
alignment of the convection with the deeper layer steering flow.

The latest hires model guidance supports some localized swath of 2
to 4+ inches of rain going through the afternoon and early evening
hours. The greatest potential for this based on the 12Z HREF/REFS
guidance should generally be across western PA and into western NY
where the 3-hour FFG exceedance probabilities are also on the
order of 30 to 50+ percent.

Given locally moist/sensitive antecedent conditions, the high
rainfall rates and storm total potential will likely foster some
areas of flash flooding. This will also include locally some urban
flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-OitDjaBPOy4oBQyMN9r0vtsnZkPKnmT0O4zNextPxxLE3hCn8Tev1pQvwNsRyUcuQFEimsnckG0A7aqvgwKWFILIZU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43727704 43627621 43217546 42667534 41647584
39887847 38677972 37218126 36648245 36688351
37168363 37878313 39088246 39888216 40598246
41038302 41458329 41858314 42258218 42588060
42987966 43577872

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 18:02:22

AWUS01 KWNH 021802
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0927
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Georgia into South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021800Z - 030000Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms over central Georgia are likely to
move over hard hit areas of eastern Georgia and South Carolina,
likely causing renewed flash flooding. There's a more conditional
flash flooding threat into southwestern Georgia and far
southeastern Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms have formed over central Georgia
this afternoon. These storms have a history of producing rainfall
rates over 3 inches per hour. Plentiful moisture is in place both
where the storms are now over Georgia and into central South
Carolina as well. SPC Mesoanalysis shows instability values from
2,500 J/kg near the NC/SC border to near 4,000 J/kg near where the
storms are now in Georgia. A strong cold front to the west is
providing ample forcing for the storms, with deep tropical
moisture being drawn northward ahead of the front over Georgia and
South Carolina to the tune of PWATs between 2.2 and 2.4 inches.
Thus, these storms have ample moisture, instability, and forcing
to not only persist on their journey northeastward up the front,
but thrive.

CAMs guidance shows the storms likely consolidating as they
approach the GA/SC border into a line along the advancing cold
front to the west, with clusters moving ahead of the line. This
could lead to areas seeing prolonged durations of heavy rainfall
through this afternoon from Augusta northeastward to near
Charlotte. The good news is guidance shows that by the 00Z ending
of this discussion, the storms should be progressive enough as
they move into eastern NC and SC that the flood threat should
diminish a bit by then.

Meanwhile, further southwest, additional storms moving into the
eastern Florida Panhandle from the Gulf, and addressed by MPD 924
will continue moving into extreme southeastern Alabama near
Dothan, and then into southwestern Georgia. Soils are a mix of
saturated and dry across southwestern Georgia due to spotty
showers and thunderstorms over the past few days. So the flash
flooding threat for the southern part of the area is more
conditional. Plentiful moisture and instability are in place there
as well, and the cold front is having no trouble advancing to the
Gulf Coast, so there are no obvious reasons that heavy rain will
have any trouble forming in these areas. The flash flooding threat
may therefore be more driven on whether the storms that impact the
area move over soils that are already saturated from prior days'
storms in flooding prone areas.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_8LfoPdM9lNe4CSYin7c1V7xASAqxE847heEYQQC60R7tBHZJw0WGQElniWafWRdHzdy2vOP93nmDLBkAirFHVsk6H4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35408063 34228026 33808036 32858119 32278176
31978204 31648265 30928297 30808331 31148337
31298372 31398443 31318477 31218517 31048565
31508560 31988535 32358502 33228410 33458376
33798333 34208261 34488220 34768187 35098145
35358117

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 22:08:12

AWUS01 KWNH 022208
FFGMPD
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0928
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...I-95 Corridor of Virginia and Maryland

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022206Z - 030200Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of storms moving north up I-95 could
cause flash flooding, particularly in urban areas for the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of storms that have been moving
north across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon have generally only
been producing rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour. This trend
will continue with a new batch of storms that has passed through
Richmond. Portions of the DC area have seen up to 2 inches of rain
so far today. As the next round of storms moves through,
additional rainfall amounts to 2 inches are possible, as well as
any additional storms developing off to the west which may impact
the urban areas could locally add further to those totals.

Despite the storms, PWATs remain downright tropical across the
Mid-Atlantic with values on SPC Mesoanalysis in a tongue to 2.3
inches extending across much of eastern Virginia and up to the DC
area. PWATs decrease considerably going up the Delaware River past
Wilmington with PWATs in Philly around 1.75 inches. Meanwhile,
instability analysis shows MUCAPE values remaining in the 1,000 to
2,000 J/kg range from about Baltimore south. It's in this area
that where storms move over urban areas such as the DC Metro that
additional flash flooding could occur into the evening. Past
Wilmington, much like PWATs, instability rapidly decreases up
towards Philadelphia.

CAMS guidance shows at least one more round of storms, with
potential for smaller clusters in the meantime, to continue to
track off to the north from the Richmond area towards the DC and
Baltimore metros through 02Z/10pm ET. With up to 2 inch/hour rates
possible with these storms added to the rain that has already
fallen in the area, flash flooding will remain possible.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8EGPEBwE95IbPBoabV2zukiBRaWfC4Pdo7Dbrt55effEhQHjJgP0tr6PQJhjkQ9PhFzusaGch4eEvrOfuMjZdZTs1o8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40227642 40197612 40207598 39827545 39417598
39087637 38577649 38517654 38137694 37607726
37587774 37847815 38307840 39597782 39707786
39877757 40137706

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 23:16:22

AWUS01 KWNH 022316
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0929
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022314Z - 030400Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms ahead of a front over the
Great Lakes will continue to produce localized flash flooding
across the Central Appalachians into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A large and dynamic storm system moving into the
central Appalachians this evening continues to produce
thunderstorms ahead of the low center near Erie, PA. A tongue of
instability is noted on SPC Mesoanalysis extending into western
Pennsylvania and western New York. Bulk shear vectors are out of
the southwest at 30 kts. PWATs in the area are generally between
1.5 and 2 inches. This has allowed the clusters of storms to
produce flash flooding along the spine of the Appalachians in
northeastern Pennsylvania, and in widely scattered locations from
Pittsburgh south into West Virginia.

CAMs guidance shows the storms will continue congealing along the
front in northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York over the
next few hours, while more topographically enhanced convection
continues from northeastern Pennsylvania into central New York.
The two areas of storms begin to fill in across the Finger Lakes
region of western New York. FFGs are particularly low along the
spine of the Appalachians from southwest Pennsylvania through
south-central New York and the Catskills. It is in these areas
where continued shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few
hours is expected to continue producing localized flash flooding.
The Finger Lakes region into central New York has a bit higher
FFGs (above 1.5 in/hr), and with a local minimum of rainfall
expected there, flash flooding instances will be much more
isolated there.

Urban and small stream flooding in urban areas including Buffalo
and Scranton are most likely, as well as in flood prone areas
where the topography acts to enhance flash flooding severity.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5tw0MwwdnTs4wMeBYx5nyS5ff4BUcrPL7XW-YN__YwlNYiobnQIiZ359jvQyXZ_MlLODU8s_vsYvhooYD2vT_D6inng$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43477880 43367680 43297647 43197583 42887537
42607507 42237494 41907513 41597528 41327567
40497742 40087842 39067958 38538001 38418024
38648071 39078117 40338054 41558054 42148024

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 02:43:36

AWUS01 KWNH 030243
FFGMPD
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-030830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0930
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1042 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast into Southwest New
England...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030245Z - 030830Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing very efficient tropical showers will be
reinforced with upstream redevelopment through the early overnight
period as warm front lifts into Northeast. Rates of 1.5-2"/hr and
repeating potential (2-3" totals) across Megalopolis urban zone
likely to induce localized flash flooding concerns overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of remaining mid-level
closed low centered over the Ontario Peninsula with a long ribbon
of remaining moisture in the positive tilt trough through the
Cumberland Plateau into northern AL. A slight cyclonic bump and
AMV winds suggests the shortwave is further consolidating before
wobbling northeastward later toward morning. However, this is
directing the very moist southern-stream smaller shortwave
features northeastward along the Atlantic coast with a smaller
wave entering NJ supporting remaining activity that affected
Maryland this evening. RAP analysis suggests much of the
instability has been worked over with a localized minimum of
remaining 500 J/kg of MUCAPE associated with the wave and still
supporting cells capable of a quick 1-1.5" rates totals as they
move through the Delaware River Valley.

Further upstream another wave can be seen across the eastern
Carolinas also lifting north. CIRA LPW denotes a slug of enhanced
850-700mb moisture along and ahead of it; but with upstream flow,
this wave appears to be driving the warm front further north over
the next few hours with surface temps into the upper 70s and low
80s and even greater moisture with Total PWats of 2.25 increasing
to near 2.5"; however, the warm front will lift more traditionally
through LI into southern New England with increased moisture
convergence with warm sector MLCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg helping to
have more surface rooted convection developing and reaching the
area toward 07z. However, elevated convective cores will
translate through ahead of the front with 1-1.5"/hr rates; but the
concern is along the western edge where upstream approach of
height-falls is countered by the strengthening onshore flow from
the southeast. The warm front will effective stall and remain
fairly parallel to the Chesapeake Bay/Delaware River Valley, but
also steepen with solid moisture flux convergence along it. As
such, additional upstream development along/ahead of the southern
stream shortwave will have opportunity for training/repeating.
Instability gradient will be in proximity but overall availability
for stronger updraft strength remains a bit more uncertain.
Nonetheless, even weak tropical showers with increasing 25-30kts
of confluent LLJ flow along the frontal zone with ample deep layer
moisture may support rates of 1.5-2"/hr. However, with the
strengthened low to mid-level southerly flow will increase cell
motions and should reduce residency times. As such, localized
streaks of 2-3" totals can be expected.

The efficiency of the shallow convective showers and proximity to
broad urban zones as well as terrain in NW NJ and into the
Catskills of NY, may be the driving factor for rapid inundation
even though showers may be moving through quickly. As such,
scattered incidents of flash flooding is considered possible
overnight for much of the Megalopolis from Wilmington, DE through
CT/RI.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!62fdmr-g3IpSQ1HUAsF70oH7Czi-WOBORjdkz_cY-jzZSe8SnAS-3XIcmT1id329MMIEsCPyJX5K-p8Vbqd2yTgrKWU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42747324 42717266 42437203 41837141 41607124
41137135 40847212 40447358 39747406 38897498
38807605 39167660 39987639 40847580 41767497
42197462 42597395

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 03:41:46

AWUS01 KWNH 030341
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-030800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0931
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1140 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...South Central Upstate New York...Central to
Northeast Pennsylvania...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030340Z - 030800Z

SUMMARY...Strong dynamics/moisture flux remains but with reduced
instability overall coverage and intensity will be significantly
reducing with time. However, ongoing clusters capable of
additional 1-2" through saturated soils keeps flash flooding risk
possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts upstream 70kt jet streak
rounding the western side of sharpening mid-level closed low.
This will help to concentrated vorticity as it rounds the base of
the trough providing solid dPVA and right entrance broad scale
ascent pattern overnight across Upstate New York into central PA.
As such, LLJ remains solid at 30+kts with upstream/sharpening
trough along mid-level trough and advancing cold front out of
western NY. Given total PWats in the 1.75-2" range any ongoing
cells will remain efficient if convergence remains strong to
overcome the overall stabilizing environment downstream.

A solid cluster with bowing features just east of State College to
Altoona is showing signs of further weakening though there is some upstream/back-building parallel to the mean flow, in addition, it
also has a trajectory toward areas of earlier heavy rainfall that
resulted in broad flash flooding from Lycoming to Broome counties
in PA/NY where FFG values are below 1" even for 3-6hr and hourly
FFG values are less than .5-.75" for much of the stretch,
suggesting any intense rainfall could re-trigger flooding
conditions fairly easily.

Further northwest along the cold front/mid-level trough axis,
there is some remaining 250-600 J/kg of MUCAPE and southwest to
northeast deep layer flow has shown a history of narrow but
elongated banding parallel to the boundary to Cattaragus to
Steuben/Livingston county that allows for 1-1.5"/hr rates and
30-90 minutes of residency for some spots up to 2". Flash
flooding would be highly focused and likely on the lower-end of
impact, but still remains non-zero given overall moisture/dynamic
environment for at least a few more hours. As such, localized
flash flooding remains possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_CKLr9BTtF5ata5ZNfbm1yEtBLPwbah2tdP8GX8uDvGfP9ZOjDRcNLvPAE4QpbS3ZXdw4peHJr03SDlWGor6nPF9dIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43557667 43277579 43027520 43497448 42967397
42647403 42157462 41367543 40817615 40137711
39997790 40117823 41017782 41477775 41987788
42557832 43057840 43467788

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 07:55:18

AWUS01 KWNH 030754
FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-031400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0932
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern New England...Southeast NY & Long
Island... NJ...Eastern PA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030800Z - 031400Z

SUMMARY...Repeating highly efficient tropical warm showers capable
of 2-2.5"/hr and streaks of additional 2-4"+ along the I-95
Megalopolis corridor likely to maintain flash flooding concerns
through daybreak.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows impressive dynamics with upper-low
over the Lower Great Lakes with solid hints of west to east
vertical tilting of the cyclone with height and and downshear
expanding baroclinic leaf over southeast Canada indicative of the
strengthening as well as eastward shift of the system as a whole.
This has tightened the overall flow and merging of Gulf and
Atlantic moisture streams through the Mid-Atlantic into New
England with fairly unidirectional southwesterly flow from
925-700mb running between 35 and 45kts. This is also expanding
vertically with 3H jet streak along the southeast quadrant of the
upper-low expected to expand toward 100-120kts by 12z with
broadening right entrance ascent pattern along the coastal region.

High theta-E air off the Atlantic, with strengthening flow has
also tightened the instability gradient with spots of 1500-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE across the Delmarva expanding with the high
moisture south of the warm front to over 1000-1250 J/kg in S New
England. Warm conveyor moisture plume gradient is tightening with
the height-falls to the west, but axis remains along the Eastern
Seaboard with 2.25"+ reaching Long Island with up to 2.5" still
further south.

Surface analysis denotes a stronger pressure trof from the lower
Hudson Valley through new Jersey and into the Chesapeake Bay, this
appears to be the old warm front or at least western edge of the
Atlantic stream of moisture and has been (and likely to remain)
the focus of continued low level convergence and convective
development as each southern stream shortwave pulses northward
providing that subtle but sufficient developmental kick. The
ample moisture should allow for efficient heavy rainfall
production, with hourly rates of 2-2.5"/hr. However, cell motions
will likely continue to increase with the strengthening deep layer
flow likely limiting residency of any given core; however, with
these pulses, repeating is highly probable with only a slight
eastward motion due to the parent system's slow eastward march.
As such, streaks of 2-4"+ are continued to be likely along the
I-95 corridor expanding into far SE Maine toward 12-14z. Given
broad urban areas as well as some complex terrain/hills in N NJ/W
MA...there will likely be incidents of flash flooding/rapid
inundation through early morning hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5a07ew_zOOtVkwG04kWzCS4pH72eBQCegKRvXdKHycpt03gfVeSodbF5JCm2glNEg0MWl-bZN_cZE5IPWElFpGWmweU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44246981 43856972 43556990 42967051 42477045
42157072 41407118 40847204 40507361 40217382
39467426 39197489 39597567 40287564 41067492
41657416 43137240 44147057

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 14:34:46

AWUS01 KWNH 031434
FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0933
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...far northern Mid-Atlanitc into Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031432Z - 031900Z

SUMMARY...The threat of flash flooding will continue over far
eastern PA into NJ, southern NY into portions of southern and
central New England into the afternoon. Potential will exist for
an additional 2 to 4+ inches through 19Z before a cold front
begins to end the flash flood threat from west to east.

DISCUSSION...14Z radar imagery showed a broken axis of showers and thunderstorms extending from southern NJ into Long Island and
southeastern New England. An embedded low to mid-level vorticity
axis was located over southern ME with another weaker vorticity
max over southwestern NJ near the eastern shore of the Delaware
Bay, each associated with a relative surge in rainfall intensity,
although the vorticity max over ME is moving into a more stable
environment. Areas of flash flooding were ongoing across the
northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast with MRMS-estimated
rainfall of about 2-4 inches over the past 6-12 hours.

14Z surface observations showed a slow moving cold front extending
from central NY into east-central PA, preceded by impressive
moisture with 2.0 to 2.5 inch PW values from the PA/NJ border into southern/coastal New England, along with roughly 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Aloft, a strengthening 100+ kt jet streak was located over
northern PA into central NY, placing enhanced upper level
divergence over the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England.

Areas of flash flooding are likely to continue as waves of heavier
rainfall continue to generate heavy rain over the region with
unidirectional southwesterly flow supporting areas of training at
times. Despite the relatively weak instability, high moisture will
compensate to help support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher possible). Some modest strengthening of the upper
level jet streak is expected through the early afternoon but
forward progression of the cold front is expected to mark the
western edge of the flash flood threat as the boundary advances
eastward into the early afternoon. Stripes of an additional 2 to 4
inches of rain (locally higher) are expected to maintain scattered
areas of flash flooding with enhanced impacts over the urban I-95
corridor.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Lx5i9HQx5K-aH9q7PAZnENidIytkeSL_jbTdGHuMVI9gIJOtTFoiLYAPTZehvrp44ssjMFlun44KUU46iuw7MPVaqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44067091 43877035 43646988 43276952 42776950
41987035 41427092 40867180 40317311 39367363
38927449 38987514 39837551 41177473 43017285
43967160

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 18:12:32

AWUS01 KWNH 311812
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-010010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0905
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...South-Central CO...Central to Northeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311810Z - 010010Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing this afternoon will impact the
high terrain of south-central CO down through central and
northeast NM. This will include the Sangre De Cristo Range and
Sacramento Mountains where there will be a threat for burn scar
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows
just the early stages of convective initiation across the higher
terrain of the central and southern Rockies, with an emphasis on
the Sangre De Cristo Range and to some extent the Sacramento
Mountains.

Strong diurnal heating and increasing boundary layer instability
near and adjacent to the high terrain will couple with some modest
vort energy near the CO/NM border to help facilitate the
development of thunderstorm activity going through the afternoon
hours. SBCAPE values have locally increased to over 1000 J/kg, but
this will be increasing over the next few hours. PWs across the
region are forecast to increase a bit over the next several hours
as a combination mid-level monsoonal moisture and some
post-frontal low-level east to northeast flow helps to increase
values.

The 12Z HREF/REFS suite of model guidance suggests convection will
initiate over the high terrain and also impact some of the
immediate High Plains over the next several hours. The Sangre De
Cristo Range in particular, and to a lesser extent the Sacramento
Mountains will be the primary targets for the heaviest QPF. This
will be aided by stronger orographic ascent/upslope flow.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the strongest and more terrain-focused cells. Localized
persistence of these thunderstorms going through the afternoon
hours will support a potential for some spotty 2 to 3+ inch
rainfall totals.

This will drive a concern in particular for burn scar flash
flooding, and also perhaps for some of the normally dry washes.
Multiple burn scars in the Sangre De Cristo Range, including the
Aspen Acres burn area, along with multi-year burn scars in the
Sacramento Mountains will be at greatest risk for seeing flash
flooding impacts and potential debris flow activity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-1-hS3HJLWr-UE1vcoTsoogPbY0JV8epD7erzunNE30CdZNha5eEzz_uUnqaXinSnYwdi57XnwA-rNl1l6tBp6CPj_s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39310552 39270461 38090383 36850353 35680324
34870362 34110450 32510507 32250577 32790636
34060675 35170659 36230635 37280679 37900679
38700589

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 19:16:14

AWUS01 KWNH 311915
FFGMPD
MIZ000-312300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0906
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311914Z - 312300Z

SUMMARY...A nearly stationary lake boundary has become the focal
point for a line of showers and thunderstorms. Flash flooding will
be possible as hourly rates exceed 2 in/hr at times.

DISCUSSION...A convergence zone primarily off Lake Michigan has
formed over the Upper Peninsula this afternoon. This has resulted
in a nearly stationary line of storms that has developed from
southeast of Marquette towards the southern Lake Michigan
shoreline, then extends towards Sault Ste. Marie. Radar estimated
rainfall rates with a few of the storms are already exceeding 1.5
inches per hour. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a "bubble" of both higher
instability (2,000 J/kg) and higher PWATs (to 1.8 inches) over the
eastern U.P., so it appears likely that additional convective
development will occur both due to lake convergence and cold pools
through this afternoon.

There is considerable uncertainty further west on the U.P. towards
the Wisconsin border due to less instability, less moisture, and
stratiform rain on the northernmost extent of the comma-head
region of the storm likely restraining much additional instability
from forming, if for no other reason than due to thick cloud
cover. Conversely, cloud cover remains much higher over the
eastern U.P. Thus, despite some CAMs guidance suggesting storms
will develop southwestward towards Wisconsin, that solution
remains highly uncertain.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5UJvGDd-arLjh1VJkPH8Mj41tW0SId1GPj93vRKCnL2TRcZaZll6kLNhDrUZKqsqX_RHEpORASczIuCcwXq51rmo080$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46778493 46558424 46228395 45958387 45918434
45848465 45888559 45888600 45798638 45928681
46048723 46238759 46518751 46588723 46578717
46588667 46738581

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 22:21:56

AWUS01 KWNH 312221
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-010400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
620 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa & Portions of the Upper Mississippi
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 312220Z - 010400Z

SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of storms will track across eastern
Iowa through the evening. Portions of eastern Iowa were hit with
multiple inches of rain this morning, making them more flood
prone. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION... A large vertically stacked low centered over central
Iowa this afternoon will track southeastward towards south-central
Iowa into this evening. Widely scattered storms have developed in
waves/lines across eastern Iowa in the dry slot of the large upper
level low. While this has limited convective coverage so far this
afternoon, as the low wraps up, convection is likely to become
more widespread across eastern Iowa through this evening.

As the low tracks southeastward, much of eastern Iowa is starting
out this afternoon in the warm sector of the storm, allowing
instability in the nose of the warm sector ahead of the low to
spike to between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg based on SPC mesoanalysis.
Moisture was never going to be a concern anywhere around the low
as PWATs this afternoon are around 1.75 inches broadly. Convective
coverage was always the concern.

CAMs guidance suggests the convection ahead of the low will run
into the comma-head region of the low with slowly southward moving
storms. The area of greatest convergence over the next few hours
appears to be around the Cedar Rapids area, which was near where
the heaviest rains fell last night. Thus, it is in this area where
the greatest potential for FFG exceedance exists and therefore
where the greatest potential for renewed flash flooding will be.

As the low continues eastward tonight, nearly steady light rains
may continue to keep any flash flooding going through the
overnight.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ylZnqdZH1jx1KIPkpRw_XrmI31w2h9fARR7p3dcGaKY5VJQkc4jrjPMj-q7KPX6VeprNYKrjw1_hVHZoEXq5-j_Sy8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43559150 43539096 43439061 43049007 42708972
42338970 41508980 41229044 40579061 40439112
40699158 40739188 40749199 40899226 41169270
41609279 42099264 42329265 42529291 42919330
43489293 43549221

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 00:19:14

AWUS01 KWNH 010018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0908
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010016Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms forming along a dying front have
formed within the thermal low over New Mexico. Flash flooding is
likely where the storms impact burn scars and narrow canyons.

DISCUSSION...A dying front draped under a large upper level ridge
aloft with a thermal low typical of summertime in the Southwest
has resulted in numerous thunderstorms that have formed from far
eastern Arizona through much of southern New Mexico to the Texas
Panhandle. The storms have a history of producing 1-2 inch per
hour rates in the strongest cells across southern New Mexico, with
more frequent storms to that intensity with the southward moving
line over eastern New Mexico.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms will continue over southern New
Mexico into this evening, then gradually dissipate with the loss
of solar heating. The most organized convection will be with the
line tracking south down the NM/TX border, with some of the storms
crossing into the western Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, the storms
over southwestern New Mexico and far eastern Arizona will likely
remain slow-moving, resulting in more localized flash flooding,
but due to the slow movement, may end up producing more rain over
the impacted areas than the storms further east, which are moving
along fast enough to generally limit the time any one area sees
heavy rain. That said, storms forming out ahead of the line across
far western Texas could help keep any heavy rainfall continuing
for a longer period of time in those localized areas.

The greatest threats for flash flooding will be where the storms
impact burn scars, narrow canyons, and any urban areas. Sudden
onset flash flooding could occur in flood prone but normally dry
low-lying areas, and with the loss of daylight, could be some of
the most dangerous.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!52DHHHPWLTzfp8iADbY_ILHX9ml9sKJHcGTw-xhL0ETglHF-Ss9rnh2YaGge2XcFFiUohQp1mcTiCIKZs8Cbbv0NUBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...LUB...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36600277 36040224 34590209 33360311 32500481
32300519 31930580 31680661 31730677 31710710
31530783 31420844 32100965 33290999 34020929
34580713 35270600 36090418

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 03:57:26

AWUS01 KWNH 010357
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-010900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0909
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1156 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...Southern Wisconsin...Northern &
Central Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010400Z - 010900Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered very slow moving convective
cells capable of 1.5"/hr and spots of 2-3.5" total. Most
locations this will be mainly beneficial due to slower rises, but
intersection with urban locations, especially urban centers along
Lake Michigan suggest possible incidents of flash flooding will
remain possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a classic well defined closed
low cyclone over the Midwest centered in Eastern IA at this time,
though there is a slight imbalance to the overall cyclone as core
of vorticity in shifted along the northwest to western side of the
centroid, about to round southeastward. This will increase dPVA
across northern and central IL and sharpen the deformation zone
though the mid-levels across far northeast IA, southern WI into
northern Lake Michigan with combination of cool conveyor belt and
western branch of the TROWAL/warm conveyor angling back northeast
into the downshear outflow channel aloft. So solid divergence as
the 60kts jet rounds the base of the larger scale trof within the
left exit in S WI/N IL will allow for continued deep layer
moisture convergence and ascent for prolonged moderate showers.

Twenty to 25 kts of southeasterly confluent flow through the
ascent plain also resides in the axis of enhanced moisture with
TPW remaining at or just below 2" so flux convergence remains
solid. While instability is the limiting factor, there is still
some 250-600 J/kg of MUCAPE along and east of the cyclone center
across E IA into N IL to allow for embedded shallow convective
cores with the capability of 1-1.5"/hr rates. Slow, convergent
translation of those cores in the prolonged moderate rain shield
suggest localized 2-3.5" totals over the next few hours.

Further south, due to the rounding vorticity center, low level
flow has backed slightly across NW IL, nearer to the remaining
instability axis where SBCAPEs still remain about 750-1000 J/kg
per RAP analysis through the MS River Valley. As such, a new band
of thunderstorms is developing and slowly advancing eastward into
NW IL. As dPVA increases and low-level flow increases by 5-10kts,
flux convergence may support spots of 1.5-1.7"/hr rates given they
reside at the best divergence aloft north of the jet streak, spots
of 2-3.5" are possible too across N IL through 09z.
However, initial band along/advanced of the surface warm front in
central IL remains progressive, though with deeper/stronger
convective capabilities. Intersection of those cells with urban
locations will be the only concern for FF, but will also be more
fleeting temporally given forward propagation. Still, it remains a
non-zero risk and is included.

Overall, the hydrological environment will likely uptake much of
the slower rates as beneficial in the longer run, but FFG remain
lower in E IA with 2-2.5"/6hrs suggest flooding may still be a
concern, as well as through larger urban corridors from Milwaukee
through Chicagoland...where even 1.5"/hr rates would be concerning
especially if 2-3hr totals get over 3". All in all, flash
flooding risk is reducing in overall areal coverage overnight, but
there will remain a good possibility of FFG exceedance in isolated
to widely scattered manner across the area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_glZB-nIFM9m0nxGHSYUgIOWHRuaC6zj0ov7VIUsp-PQ7eIJEqUo7nHNq6Vs38eKPmDbGQKSfxT_VHMSeCeEfZ-a0jU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...ILX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43508919 43338834 42928779 42388758 41668754
40648751 39828759 39468807 39378860 39548912
40328985 40679037 40649119 40839172 41329209
42189198 42959147 43399064 43449012

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 10:40:42

AWUS01 KWNH 011040
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-011630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0910
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
639 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Northwest IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011039Z - 011630Z

SUMMARY...Some bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms expanding
in coverage across northern IL this morning may result in some
areas of flash flooding. This will include potential impacts to
the Chicago metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cooling convective tops aligning itself in a general north/south
fashion across portions of northern IL. The activity is focusing
generally around the eastern flank of a deep layer low center,
with a relatively focused axis of strong low to mid-level moisture
convergence while also coinciding with a corridor of deeper layer
ascent.

Divergent flow aloft with DPVA in place is seen working in tandem
with the nose of modest instability (MUCAPE values ~500 J/kg) for
convection that more recently is showing some capability to
locally train over the same area. Overall the environment is very
efficient though for high rainfall rates, with OSPO ALPW showing
deep moisture through the vertical column, and suggestive of a
tall, skinny CAPE profile.

IR satellite images show a bit of a convective wedge signature
west of the Chicago metropolitan area which suggests a divergent
flow pattern aloft coinciding with sustainable cold-topped
convection for at least the near-term. Rainfall rates with the
convection are likely to reach 1.5+ inches/hour with the stronger
cells, and with some backbuilding/training cell potential in
place, there may be some rainfall amounts through late-morning
that approach 2 to 4 inches.

These rains may get into the Chicago metropolitan area over the
next couple of hours and promote an urban flash flood threat. Area
streamflows across northern IL are generally on the high side as
it is, so areas even away from the city across northern IL may see
at least localized flash flooding with this morning's rainfall. It
is also possible based on some of the latest hires CAMs that some
of this heavy convective rainfall threat could focus farther
southeast and build into areas of far northwest IN, so these
adjacent areas to the southeast of Chicago will also need to be
monitored.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!66Nz7b6QRJy9YWWKeQxGs2Gqb0AVOZga90V5a0BlixJm6gIMREC-YjhylUq30ZYSj6NS8zEvqkv_ABduK4IUZIksyU8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42538891 42478780 41878694 41298682 40908709
40738767 40888830 41258910 41768962 42248953

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 11:21:44

AWUS01 KWNH 011121
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-011600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0911
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Middle TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011120Z - 011600Z

SUMMARY...Locally backbuilding and training showers and
thunderstorms will continue to foster at least a short-term threat
for mainly urban flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped convective cluster across central TN, with radar and
satellite images showing some recent backbuilding and
cell-training characteristics. The convection is focusing out
ahead of a warm front that is gradually approaching the region
along with a deeper pool of moisture and instability.

Warm air advection and relatively divergent flow aloft combined
with an axis of stronger moisture convergence may tend to support
this activity maintaining itself at least for the next few hours.
The nose of a 30 to 40+ kt west-southwest low-level jet
overrunning the upstream warm front will certainly foster an axis
of relatively strong moisture transport that will encourage
heavier rainfall rates.

Favorable upwind propagation/Corfidi vectors at least over the
next few hours will favor an elevated threat for backbuilding
convective cells and cell-training. PWs are locally approaching
2.25 inches across middle TN, and this coupled with MUCAPE values
of 500 to 1000 J/kg will foster rainfall rates reaching over 1.5
inches/hour with the stronger storms.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible going
through late this morning, and this may yield some additional
areas of mainly urban flash flooding. This will include the
Nashville metropolitan area where there has already been heavy
rainfall over the last 90 minutes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79nA02qvgUkJtnzcORKTy3MlaeIrOLcbM5Xs6ExMkjvi0KOUUhF3nTacNa-VYQDVAfqIJa85ksntWFyiJdmAkC_nB1U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36678605 36508511 35748498 35458589 35618679
35978729 36538709

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 16:59:44

AWUS01 KWNH 011659
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-012245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0912
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1258 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Central IL...West-Central to Southern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011658Z - 012245Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding bands showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon will be capable of high rainfall rates. This
coupled locally slow cell-motions and cell-training will likely
result in areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows a deep
layer cyclone continue to drift east-southeast toward the Lower OH
Valley. Southerly low-level moisture transport along with the nose
of at least modest instability will continue to ride northward up
around the eastern flank of the low center. This will work in
tandem with DPVA and the diurnal heating cycle to promote the
development and expansion of bands of convection going through the
afternoon hours.

Already the latest radar imagery shows a broken axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms across central IL just to the north of
the 700/500 mb low center and pivoting in a general east to west
fashion with some cell-training concerns. As the boundary layer
destabilizes further across areas of west-central to southern IN,
more banded structures of convection are expected to develop here
which will likely become aligned with the deeper layer cyclonic
flow and be capable of training over the same area.

MLCAPE values have risen to between 500 and 1000 J/kg across
central and southern IN, with the northwest edge of this getting
pulled back into at least eastern IL. PWs meanwhile are generally
near 1.75 inches, which is being tempered actually a little bit by
a mid-level dry slot riding up across central and southern IN.
Regardless, the threat for concentrated bands of convection should
tend to increase over the next few hours from an increase in
instability and deeper layer ascent around the eastern and
northern flanks of the mid-level low center.

The environment supports rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour
within these bands of convection, and the latest hires CAMs as a
consensus suggest corridors of heavy rainfall totals reaching 2 to
4 inches with spotty 5+ inch amounts not out of the question.
Generally, this is likely to result in some areas of flash
flooding and especially where cell-training is maximized. The
threat will be more near-term across areas of central IL, but
should develop over time across west-central and southern IN.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!56OoPfTwDoupb5of1UFSsDEt6UOoWjwWslkZS66zGEK2eqQa46Cj8wNk1fGahmoEfHcXkTH_v-FdMBMU4QJhEMjTmG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41568805 41368680 40908581 40308513 39418489
38668520 38238557 38018625 38018710 38358760
39178810 39438908 39568963 39879041 40319073
41029039 41398959

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 17:32:28

AWUS01 KWNH 011732
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-012330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0913
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Northern FL...Southern GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011730Z - 012330Z

SUMMARY...Locally broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
with slow cell-motions will pose a threat for some pockets of
flash flooding going into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows broken bands of
convection impacting portions of the FL Panhandle eastward across
northern FL with some of this activity edging into southern GA.
There has been enough convective activity that a cold pool has
become established across the FL Panhandle and adjacent waters of
the northeast Gulf of America. The leading edge of this is
expected to advance off to the east-northeast this afternoon
across northern FL and adjacent areas of southern GA.

MLCAPE values across these areas are on the order of 2000 to 3000
J/kg with PWs near 2 inches. This will foster convection capable
of producing rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour with the
stronger convective elements as the convective mass advances off
to the east-northeast. The convection across northern FL and
southern GA will generally be a mix of pulse and multicell
activity, but the cell-motions are expected to be rather slow.

Some localized outflow boundary collisions may may foster new
convective development and potential for cell-mergers as well over
the next several hours. Rainfall amounts may locally reach 3 to 5
inches where these cell-mergers or any localized cell-training
occurs. A localized and generally urban flash flood threat will
exist as a result since the FFGs are generally quite high across
the region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9tqx9AueaMgD7qx1xEkewRnHipDj5AZS0hLGkARLR7mPe9jH9B1UBYLCMMUhUeKUuQRSkbGoEIe7ozTRfto2KZ4xhBE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32218205 31968113 31528102 30818128 30358122
29938111 29468165 29608282 30218351 30368393
30648467 31258506 31838473 32158364

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 19:02:04

AWUS01 KWNH 011901
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-020100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0914
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011900Z - 020100Z

SUMMARY...Convection forming over the Sangre de Cristos and
Sacramento Mountains this afternoon have the potential to produce
flash flooding over urban areas, burn scars, and slot canyons as
the storms track southward.

DISCUSSION...Localized flash flooding is possible this afternoon
as convection that has developed over the Sangre de Cristos and
the San Juan mountains gradually shift off the mountains towards
the south. Urban areas such as Santa Fe, as well as any burn scars
and slot canyons have the potential for flash flooding as the
convection tracks near those flood prone areas.

Moisture across much of New Mexico remains high as PWATs around 1
inch have moved across the southern and eastern portions of the
state. A convergence zone has set up along a north-south boundary
where southeasterly flow out of Texas is advecting both higher
moisture and instability between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg into central
New Mexico. The storms have have formed are producing rainfall
rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour in the strongest cores, and with
numerous flood prone areas in the vicinity of those cores, from
canyons to burn scars, flash flooding is possible.

Convection has started to form off the Sacramento mountains as
well in southern New Mexico. The convergence over that area is
more stark with easterly flow approaching the Sacramentos from the
east and westerly flow from the west. Neither flow is particularly
strong, but the combination of that wind convergence and the
Sacramento mountains themselves could lead to more robust
convective development over the next few hours, in areas that are
also highly prone to flash flooding, such as around Ruidoso.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GDA5XB07bEN3Q2Igy353rYgMqwyeOM6k8Y8y4EEc2fZrMctomUyWRzl9CZCpKbZUtqg1oGS2Z0kaoYtkdnRso6aNuI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37640530 37550467 37520460 36780425 33610412
33010485 32110557 33120620 34630650 35820676
36460679 37270668 37590623

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 20:04:04

AWUS01 KWNH 012003
FFGMPD
TXZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0915
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012002Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and storms developing along and ahead
of a cold front over central Texas could cause storms capable of
producing flash flooding into early this evening. Flash flooding
possible.

DISCUSSION... A cold front slowly pushing south across the Texas
Hill Country is beginning to provide the forcing for scattered
showers and storms to develop. These storms are in a very
favorable environment. SBCAPE values are over 3,000 J/kg near Del
Rio, with over 2,000 J/kg CAPE across the rest of the discussion
area. PWATs are over 2 inches for the eastern half of the area and
over 1.75 inches closer to the Rio Grande. With the front
providing the forcing, and ample moisture and instability in
place, expect continued upscale growth in the convection as it
forms along and south of I-10, and presses south towards the
Balcones Escarpment. Much of the Texas Hill Country is highly
susceptible to flash flooding. Thus, even though rainfall rates
are well below FFGs now, the upscale growth of the storms could
make up for that difference, resulting in flash flooding both
under the storm and immediately downstream in the impacted river
basins.

CAMs guidance is mixed about the potential for flash flooding.
Some of the guidance such as the HRRR is quite lackluster in its
presentation of the expected storms over the next several hours.
Meanwhile the RRFS, FV3, and ARW2 are all quite robust in their
depictions of the convective activity. The HRRR was thrown out as
it has been vastly underdoing the convective coverage so far
today, and with new activity now developing from Del Rio east
through Kerrville, it appears the wetter solutions are in much
better position to verify. When adding the very favorable
environment the storms have been forming in, and the front
continuing to press south, keeping the forcing favorable, expect
convective coverage to continue increasing. This in turn will
allow flash flooding potential to also continue increasing into
this evening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5tjrbIkW8Pt2F6onS7cdUbbQFd9_P4Q-sRXmB6SWKAr8Xw_qfL7IaDzntxhAuvAUbqbMT1yb8GpOUXSXltZoIVe7wDs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30660007 30599870 30559845 30489813 30429792
30209768 29769776 29119821 28969887 28769970
28670019 28660053 28820064 29300096 29720164
29750228 29810220 29980201 30360170 30620099

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 20:46:08

AWUS01 KWNH 012045
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0916
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Alabama through Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012044Z - 020230Z

SUMMARY...A line of training thunderstorms has formed in a highly
unstable and moisture rich environment from northern Alabama
through Eastern Kentucky. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION...A series of lines of thunderstorm cells are setting
up across northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee this afternoon.
These storms are moving northeastward as the lines they are
embedded in move east, thus allowing for some limited training.
Across Alabama, SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values close to
5,000 J/kg near the Mississippi border near Hamilton, Alabama. The
nose of instability extends into central Tennessee and Kentucky
with SBCAPE values around 3,000 J/kg. Southwesterly flow ahead of
the advancing cold front is advecting plentiful moisture
northeastward ahead of the front, allowing the storms to blossom
in coverage as they track off towards the northeast. There are a
few segments where the storms have done a better job merging west
of Knoxville, but it's likely that these storms will congeal into
a solid line or two over the next few hours. For now, the storms
are only producing rainfall rates up to an inch per hour, but as
they organize in this highly unstable and moisture-rich
environment, expect the rates in the strongest cores to rapidly
increase. Rainfall rates will be highly dependent on the speed of
the storms, despite expected high instantaneous rainfall rates.
Local rates will approach 3 inches per hour, with isolated rates
to 4 inches per hour where cell mergers and cold pools locally
slow the movement of any stronger cores.

Urban areas such as Birmingham, Chattanooga, and Knoxville are
likely to be impacted by storms capable of producing heavy
rainfall over the next several hours. These urban areas will have
a greater risk of flash flooding as a result. Meanwhile, low-lying
and particularly flood prone areas, especially into northwest
Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and eastern Kentucky where terrain
becomes a significant factor could also see localized flash
flooding in a few hours as the storms move through.

CAMs guidance suggests there will be a single concrete line of
storms on the western end of any convection associated with the
approaching cold front. However, scattered segments of storms are
likely to continue forming out ahead of the main line, seemingly
at random. Areas that are hit with multiple rounds of heavy rain
in quick succession will also be susceptible to localized flash
flooding into this evening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-uvUIZpfeLbqQ7D-Ok6FDb7psYzUqGi4-D71KLVSin9MAfbFfF_o2j9BeoUv4PHWhQEb55t7XTaXg82XOB3leBZu3RM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37828301 37258257 35688334 35318359 35028385
34398445 33788514 33438586 33088699 33148790
33548806 34468736 35188655 35518637 35898605
36088578 36258548 36638489 37518408

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 21:24:40

AWUS01 KWNH 012124
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0917
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
523 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Central South Carolina and Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012122Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms with a history of rainfall rates over
3 inches per hour will continue to press slowly east across South
Carolina into this evening. Flash flooding likely as the storms
continue over urban areas, and heavy rains overwhelm the dry soils.

DISCUSSION... Numerous showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing
across central South Carolina and portions of eastern Georgia this
afternoon. Due to high FFGs in the area, most storms have been
unable to exceed them so far this afternoon. However, due to the
storms' slow motions, plentiful moisture with PWATs over 2.25
inches along the SC/GA border, instability between 2,000 and 3,000
J/kg of MUCAPE, and interactions with some urban areas, the flash
flooding potential has continued to increase.

The storms have generally been moving very slowly across South
Carolina this afternoon. Meanwhile, with a deep tropical air mass
in place, southeasterly flow off the Atlantic continuing to
replenish the atmospheric moisture lost to rainfall, and
interaction with some urban areas, the storms have continued to
grow upscale as they interact with cold pools in the area.

CAMs guidance suggest the storms will continue to persist for the
next few hours, then gradually diminish in coverage and intensity
over central and eastern South Carolina this evening due to loss
of solar heating and the storms using up the available
instability.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5uAV6j5gxoTT0JAm9vgJjfe3fZXpO1u7QfruzF1yAEbdc8-Eqg9Ffv7qy4qL_aUtggMMyQIMdAcQGA50z7pYV0BES5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35358112 34797931 33777953 33128041 32178120
32408246 32418275 32568295 33118281 33558238
33848192 33968157 34458143 34918162 35178149

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 22:11:54

AWUS01 KWNH 012211
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0918
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012209Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms are moving south over
southwestern New Mexico. These storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 1.5 inches per hour. Burn scars and slot canyons
scattered about southwestern New Mexico will likely see additional
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms that formed over the Gila
National Forest has been tracking southward parallel to the
Arizona border this afternoon. The storms have formed as a result
of a thermal low and a front that are draped along the Mexican
border. Weak upper level shortwave energy tracking south along the
eastern side of a large upper level high centered over Southern
California has likely also contributed to the storms' development.

As the storms push southward, they will move over other vulnerable
areas in southwestern New Mexico, particularly any burn scars and
slot canyons over the area. This area has been hit repeatedly over
the past few days, so the level of flash flooding in those canyons
is likely to be similar as the storms on previous days.

Meanwhile further east, a single storm cell is tracking over
extreme western Texas, just to the north of El Paso. This storm
too has a history of producing localized flash flooding. The storm
will move towards the metro, likely impacting the northern and
western suburbs over the next hour or so. Urban flash flooding
from this storm is also possible.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4wNVBdD8e2xRHv0R_LGW2aNOIN30dzPNUnZJFTAp_aG1JtANmNOU_d-wbqJtFbODFCQ4Vejx_HDY26dBPs9Ea9IIUPU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33590830 33550782 33480759 33070692 32330619
31690578 31360604 31710651 31740729 31750815
31310815 31250994 31321028 31681030 32341002
33240947 33470928 33480917 33560881

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 23:02:02

AWUS01 KWNH 012301
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012300Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will cause additional flash
flooding over portions of the Ohio Valley into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A complex of strong thunderstorms tracking across
eastern Indiana this evening will continue to push north and
eastward into this evening. The storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 3 inches per hour, and they will likely maintain that
intensity for the next few hours, especially over portions of
eastern Indiana to the northeast of Indianapolis.

A strong low near Indianapolis is moving ESE across central
Indiana. Ahead of the low a strong occluded front is forcing a
strong line of storms, which extends well south into Kentucky.
These storms are approaching Dayton and Cincinnati. They will move
through over the next hour or so, with urban and small stream
flash flooding possible.

More consequently, the storms that are currently near I-70 between
the Ohio border and Indianapolis are expected to struggle to move
too much further north, as the low center tracks ESE. This will
make for a scenario where the storms become nearly stationary,
likely extending in a line that orients NE to SW. HREF flash flood
exceedance guidance in eastern Indiana shows that there is a 60%
chance of exceeding 3 hrly FFGs through 00Z, staying above 40% in
a portion of eastern Indiana through 03Z, then above 20% through
06Z. This follows with the loss of daytime heating that the storms
should weaken with time.

SPC Mesoanalysis over Ohio shows PWATs over 1.8 inches over much
of the discussion area, with a nose of MLCAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg
over the same area. This will support the line of storms entering
western Ohio to maintain itself, which is well supported in the
CAMs guidance. The further south one goes, the more progressive
the storms will be, so the flash flooding threat towards the Ohio
River should be lesser than areas further north towards Dayton and
eventually Columbus. As the storms move into northern Ohio later
this evening, FFGs increase considerably. The combination of those
higher FFGs and weakening storms should begin to lessen the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_V3T-pn7GaweGsIj2goXdJ8EYuaEBItTPn_IjQFzWW1EhVONr3AvhEXLH28zugCEoq5SfTCnBHTVb4Hb_TMe4OtZm2s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41188690 41178501 40898403 40568349 40368318
40068230 38938216 38368261 37868294 37888312
37928358 38368380 38738438 38888459 39548558
39958717 40138748 40458747 41028733

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 23:06:28

AWUS01 KWNH 012306
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
705 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Corrected for Graphic

Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012300Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will cause additional flash
flooding over portions of the Ohio Valley into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A complex of strong thunderstorms tracking across
eastern Indiana this evening will continue to push north and
eastward into this evening. The storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 3 inches per hour, and they will likely maintain that
intensity for the next few hours, especially over portions of
eastern Indiana to the northeast of Indianapolis.

A strong low near Indianapolis is moving ESE across central
Indiana. Ahead of the low a strong occluded front is forcing a
strong line of storms, which extends well south into Kentucky.
These storms are approaching Dayton and Cincinnati. They will move
through over the next hour or so, with urban and small stream
flash flooding possible.

More consequently, the storms that are currently near I-70 between
the Ohio border and Indianapolis are expected to struggle to move
too much further north, as the low center tracks ESE. This will
make for a scenario where the storms become nearly stationary,
likely extending in a line that orients NE to SW. HREF flash flood
exceedance guidance in eastern Indiana shows that there is a 60%
chance of exceeding 3 hrly FFGs through 00Z, staying above 40% in
a portion of eastern Indiana through 03Z, then above 20% through
06Z. This follows with the loss of daytime heating that the storms
should weaken with time.

SPC Mesoanalysis over Ohio shows PWATs over 1.8 inches over much
of the discussion area, with a nose of MLCAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg
over the same area. This will support the line of storms entering
western Ohio to maintain itself, which is well supported in the
CAMs guidance. The further south one goes, the more progressive
the storms will be, so the flash flooding threat towards the Ohio
River should be lesser than areas further north towards Dayton and
eventually Columbus. As the storms move into northern Ohio later
this evening, FFGs increase considerably. The combination of those
higher FFGs and weakening storms should begin to lessen the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_mjE6tpVGSIsI3ho1Hp7FW4EJTfkxcb4tyPsVFU9GKmoMnuCppPOyQsqLp4IvME38kAqsSYeIgHEaj0vTV036eYsCwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41188690 41178501 40898403 40568349 40368318
40068230 38938216 38368261 37868294 37888312
37928358 38368380 38738438 38888459 39558556
39698608 39738659 39508695 39538733 39508748
40138748 40458747 41028733

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 23:09:00

AWUS01 KWNH 012308
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Corrected for Graphic

Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012300Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will cause additional flash
flooding over portions of the Ohio Valley into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A complex of strong thunderstorms tracking across
eastern Indiana this evening will continue to push north and
eastward into this evening. The storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 3 inches per hour, and they will likely maintain that
intensity for the next few hours, especially over portions of
eastern Indiana to the northeast of Indianapolis.

A strong low near Indianapolis is moving ESE across central
Indiana. Ahead of the low a strong occluded front is forcing a
strong line of storms, which extends well south into Kentucky.
These storms are approaching Dayton and Cincinnati. They will move
through over the next hour or so, with urban and small stream
flash flooding possible.

More consequently, the storms that are currently near I-70 between
the Ohio border and Indianapolis are expected to struggle to move
too much further north, as the low center tracks ESE. This will
make for a scenario where the storms become nearly stationary,
likely extending in a line that orients NE to SW. HREF flash flood
exceedance guidance in eastern Indiana shows that there is a 60%
chance of exceeding 3 hrly FFGs through 00Z, staying above 40% in
a portion of eastern Indiana through 03Z, then above 20% through
06Z. This follows with the loss of daytime heating that the storms
should weaken with time.

SPC Mesoanalysis over Ohio shows PWATs over 1.8 inches over much
of the discussion area, with a nose of MLCAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg
over the same area. This will support the line of storms entering
western Ohio to maintain itself, which is well supported in the
CAMs guidance. The further south one goes, the more progressive
the storms will be, so the flash flooding threat towards the Ohio
River should be lesser than areas further north towards Dayton and
eventually Columbus. As the storms move into northern Ohio later
this evening, FFGs increase considerably. The combination of those
higher FFGs and weakening storms should begin to lessen the flash
flooding threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5CwxJg-4vP0uMkVZaakowEyZ6LoG2G6QAk-bTxq9LDqxCmf838t6z4aHI8l9womDwqAuLOiIz_ncsPa-kwSIHz6FMvQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LOT...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41188690 41178501 40898403 40568349 40368318
40068230 38938216 38368261 37868294 37888312
37928358 38368380 38738438 38888459 39558556
39698608 39738659 39508695 39538733 39508748
40138748 40458747 41028733

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 01:51:16

AWUS01 KWNH 020151
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-020630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0920
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
949 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico..Adj. Southeast
Arizona/Western Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020150Z - 020630Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of slightly progressive, but intense
rainfall producers additional 1-1.5" in 0-1hrs may result in
isolated remaining new incident of localized flash flooding
through 06z.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows a shortwave at the tail end of the
larger scale trough across the Great Lakes extending into the
eastern edge of the western ridge aloft. This wave currently in
east-central NM, extends a bit further westward due to convective
feedback from earlier convection providing some increased, if
generally weak organization to the convective line. Weak easterly
to east-southeasterly moisture flux out of western Texas into
southern NM as well as generally confluence into the developing
850mb low over N Chihuahua has been providing sufficient moisture
flux with 1.25-1.5" in the southern High Plains and 1-1.25" across
SE AZ into S NM (higher values with greater vertical depth in the
valleys, of course). However, it is the deep layer flow and
convergence and remaining conditionally unstable air across the
area of concern that will help to maintain the forward propagating
complexes.

Regional RADAR also, denotes outflow has been pretty solid ahead
of the mid-level 850-700 convergence axis, allowing for some
pre-convective line convergence to focus/redevelop new scattered
cells in advance of the line as noted in Dona Ana and northeast
Otero county and earlier in northern Chaves county. It is spots
like this that will have greater potential for longer duration and
totals nearing 1.5" in 1-1.5hrs; while overall deep moisture
should support sub-hourly 1" totals along the length of the line.
Given rocky/harder ground conditions and a few urban locales in
the path of the line, there remains a possible chance for
localized flash flooding conditions through the early overnight
period. Instability will continue to diminish with cooling
surface temperatures and cells will likely weaken through 05-07z
ending the FF risk.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QCr-Cp8t3vl13bZxv_pWAUA0rxv2fTxz5N2YEu8ok_65gRgTbNxycEwdq8OaO9YmL-jiQvGUzAi2ddnDz9QD9R4fAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33960347 33860314 33290307 32830318 32360381
31910489 31650619 31670703 31720800 31240809
31230897 31331011 32041021 32830848 33320612
33760440

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 15:52:42

AWUS01 KWNH 301552
FFGMPD
FLZ000-302050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0896
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...West-Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301550Z - 302050Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms containing intense rainfall
rates over 3"/hr are possible through this afternoon in
west-central FL, including the greater Tampa Bay region. Localized
rainfall amounts of 5-8+" may prompt urban flooding and ponding
water over roadways.

Discussion...Regional radar and satellite imagery across the FL
Peninsula show a primary complex of thunderstorms gradually
sinking southward near Tampa bay and extending eastward across the
Peninsula. This is occurring within a very moist and unstable
environment. The 12Z sounding out of TBW recorded a PW of 2.41"
and MLCAPE of 2,015 J/kg. These are both near the daily max in
climatology. Additionally, flow over the Gulf into the region will
continue to advect instability into the region and allow for
thunderstorm redevelopment for areas along the Gulf Coast of
west-central FL through the afternoon.

12Z HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities for at least 5 inches
of rain by 21Z are 40-60% from near Tampa eastward near and just
south of I-4. Additionally, rainfall totals in the areas have been
observed to exceed 2" within 30 mins and is enough to lead to at
least urban flooding or ponding water on roadways. These rates are
expected to continue through this afternoon, with rainfall totals
potentially nearing or exceeding 8 inches within the most
pronounced and slow-moving thunderstorms.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6KoP2OE-H_0MmvV9m9_2pMsaJuwQ56plWVye7TwD32c5eh3NEk9fiKJ3LPVGcDLYarKe5mwdqmDSbCWhhrk1UHuVUrE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28408277 28228198 28298126 28048102 27678115
27388161 27248208 27348266 27918293

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 18:29:34

AWUS01 KWNH 301829
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-310030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0897
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northern South Dakota, southeast North
Dakota, and northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301830Z - 310030Z

Summary...Increasing coverage of slow-moving thunderstorms this
afternoon from north-central South Dakota to northwest Minnesota
are expected to contain rainfall rates up to 2-3"/hr at times.
This may produce isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
through this evening.

Discussion...GOES-E satellite imagery this afternoon shows cooling
cloud-tops across parts of north-central SD into eastern ND. These
developing thunderstorms are exhibiting slow forward propagation
as wind profiles remain rather light (less than 10 kts) out of the
south up until around 500mb. This southerly flow is also ushering
in a very moist airmass with PWs between 1.8-2.2" and aided by a
tightening mid-level circulation/vort max over western SD. These
values are above the 90th climatological percentile in SD per
30-yr CFSR climo for late-July to early August. Instability is
also not lacking with SBCAPE values over 5000 J/kg along the
border of southeast ND and MN (per SPC's mesoanalysis). A frontal
boundary gradually sinking across northern ND into northwest MN
will provide an additional focus for thunderstorm development,
which may remain separated from ongoing activity across southeast
ND into northern SD.

Latest HRRR and RRFS highlight maximum rainfall amounts through
01Z around 3-5" are possible. These 3"+ amounts are also supported
by the 12Z HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities ranging from
20-60% in the region. A limiting factor for widespread flash
flooding is the dry antecedent conditions, with NASA SPoRT-LIS
0-40cm soil moisture below the 5th percentile for much of this
area. However, rainfall rates of 2-3" within this highly moist and
unstable environment could overcome this and produce rapid runoff,
as well as urban flash flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5M0f096OfOrtdcsJ24AoTCAv_-iUQgiqVu6G_vq7ezoGngRdM-EywByJbbb9c2NoHj_JgOCtSI8317epk8PospFqU4k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48979561 48929419 48309392 47409533 46359635
45309696 44799796 44639919 44850043 45600086
46670000 48119779

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 20:44:54

AWUS01 KWNH 302044
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-310042-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0898
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...northern/northeastern Wisconsin, portions of the
upper peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302042Z - 310042Z

Summary...Spotty/isolated flash flood potential exists for a few
hours this afternoon.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the
discussion area and have a history of producing local rain rates
to 3 inches/hr over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The storms
continue to produce spots of 1.5-2 inch/hr rain rates (per MRMS)
and are located within a pool of moderate instability (around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE) along and just ahead of a composite convective/lake
breeze boundary near the WI/MI border. PW values of 1.5-1.9 are
supporting efficient rainfall processes within the storms, while
modest mean flow aloft (around 15-20 knots) was fostering spots of
convective backbuilding, enabling locally higher rain rates to
develop. These rates (approaching 2 inches/hr) are approaching
local FFG in a few areas, suggesting isolated potential for
excessive runoff in spots in the short term.

This risk will continue for another 2-4 hours or so. The upstream
airmass across central/southwest WI is notably drier and less
stable than the near-convective environment, suggesting that once
ongoing activity exhausts the current pool of instability, storms
(and flash flood potential) will diminish in intensity. The flash
flood risk should exist on an isolated basis through at least
00Z/7p central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5e6P27vpg1d-8oOgGTZ_F8MjDCqwCd_8CGEZE7TE0KtN91j6NOMB40nhyt3r_-TkCz7ladxxL8A2Hhdbe_utA-jFh6I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DLH...GRB...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46598554 46448516 46278575 46038662 45038775
44588837 45108986 46359133 46459030 46468929
46238858 46028761 46228658 46438651

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 22:13:58

AWUS01 KWNH 302213
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-310211-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0899
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302211Z - 310211Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out across
Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon and evening.

Discussion...Strong insolation and mid-level moisture was
promoting isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
especially along terrain-favored ridgelines and peaks over the
past couple hours. Development has been gradual, and is most
concentrated across southwestern NM, with more isolated activity
near Ruidoso in south-central NM and also along the Mogollon Rim
in AZ. Storms are in a comparatively drier environment compared
to recent monsoonal thunderstorm days (0.8-1.2 inch PW values),
though MRMS was already indicating spotty rates of 1 inch/hr
especially in southwestern NM with the activity due to slow storm
movement. Flash flooding should be isolated this afternoon/early
evening, and generally tied to locales that experience heavier
rainfall atop burn scars and sensitive terrain/canyons in the
region. Most of this threat should be diurnally driven, with a
weakening trend in storms expected after around 02Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8XZNEortFHDejAP3knFeDKG-utWXQQfT0OPdsjRYElQUw0CjobKemuwYm9cFu7kM32yt2bBq6V0g-2jV_Q8OnEcL70Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35611132 35371031 35210872 35230692 35010546
34090515 32720575 31990685 31710817 31340826
31401013 31741112 32891078 33811157 35381236

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 00:50:36

AWUS01 KWNH 310049
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-310647-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0900
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310047Z - 310647Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue to spread eastward
into southwestern Minnesota while persisting in much of South
Dakota, though the duration and extent of this risk is uncertain.

Discussion...A complicated surface pattern exists across the
discussion area. A couple of maturing convective complexes exist:
1) from just northwest of Benson, MN southwestward to near Huron
and on to near Mobridge, SD and 2) a second, more quickly moving
MCS from near Faith to near Phillip, SD. At their current pace,
each of these complexes were expected to merge across central into
east-central South Dakota, prolonging rain rates in areas that
were already experiencing 1-3 inch/hr totals due to slow storm
movement. These trends suggest a continued flash flood threat
particularly with the lead MCS from near Huron to Mobridge given
slow cell movement and potential for more than one round of heavy
rainfall.

Further complicating this pattern is the presence of subtle
low-level drying downstream across Iowa and far southern
Minnesota, which has resulted in negligible instability in those
areas. Furthermore, a more mature, intense MCS over
central/eastern Nebraska will stabilize the low-levels into
south-central South Dakota via convective overturning. These
factors will likely impact MCS maintenance/propagation over
eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota, although the
well-organized nature of the MCS in eastern South Dakota suggests
at least another 3-5 hours of persistence along with slow eastward
movement. Should 2-3 inch/hr rain rates continue to materialize
(plausible given slow cell motions in some areas and 2.1+ inch PW
values), areas of flash flooding will remain possible. Eastward
maintenance of the convective complexes into southwestern
Minnesota is expected, although persistence beyond State Highway
15 in Minnesota remains uncertain. Flash flooding is expected on
at least an isolated basis in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4LtTCLnCLeHRbW5XNC8V0PR26xoFsK6RNcNpVOw55KYYbSvxU5lIagZ7TPCTqQSYzzlNPZQmZ9mKmdoZRaATpJgpBlk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45819638 45729529 45169465 44619438 43979436
43629600 43789943 44000030 44650035 45169982
45199854 45499719

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 06:27:20

AWUS01 KWNH 310627
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-311200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0901
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Eastern SD...Southern MN...Northern IA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310630Z - 311200Z

SUMMARY...Vertically stacking cyclone will have strong moisture
flux convergence for slow moving thunderstorms near the center and
along the steepening warm-air advective band(s) across S MN/N IA.
Prolonged 1-1.25"/hr rates with occasional peaks near 2"/hr will
support spots of 2-4", with possible highly localized spot or two
up to 5". Incidents of focused flash flooding will be possible,
especially near and east of the cyclone center.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and RAP analysis depict, older
shortwave that translated out of the Rockies yesterday has stalled
over SE SD and is starting to lift northward and merge with the
larger scale shortwave that can be seen well near KPIR sliding in
to replace it, providing a strong downstream zone of dPVA and deep
layer cyclogenesis. At the surface, a strengthening 1007-8mb low
in SE SD, appears to be slowly occluding as lead cold front is
advancing upon warm front slow to leave the Missouri River Valley
into western IA; the older northern-stream frontal zone is
dropping a stronger cold front through central SD and through the
Sand Hills that will continue to swing through the base as the
main height-falls roll through over the next 4-6hrs; while return
easterly flow across central MN is steepening the isentropes ahead
of the advancing warm front, though with ample moisture in the
upper 60s and low 70s aiding overall deep layer moisture in the
region. Overall Total PWats along and east of the surface to 500mb
trof axis (across E SD) are AoA 2.25" with strong directional
convergence and with winds of 20-30kts from surface to 700mb.

Moisture flux convergence will be key has overall instability
environment continues to diminish with loss of heating. Warm
sector/warm conveyor belt out of E NEB had be mixed over with
initial convective line, but solid WAA across the warm front and
into the back-shearing TROWAL toward the vertically stacking
cyclone center will continue to maintain pockets of MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg. This will allow for shallow, inner core convection
across E SD into SW MN to have capability of up to 2"/hr though
flare-ups of convection are likely to be short-lived, focused and
transient to next strong convergence zone, though with limited
cell motions, SHaRS-type intense localized rainfall for 1-2 hours
may result in localized 2-4"+ totals and represent the best
opportunities for flash flooding; though broad areas of 1-1.25"/hr
will exist for prolonged periods due to isentropic ascent/mst flux
convergence.

Eastward, strong vertical ascent on those steepening isentropic
boundary into south-central MN and northern IA will also have
stronger vertical depth closer to the warm conveyor/instability
axis. Rates of 1.5-2"/hr are likely to result in 2-3" totals
closer to the slower cell motions near the cyclone pivot point,
while further south into central IA may have reduced localized
totals due to forward (west to east) cell motions to limit
residency time.

Hydrologically, the area has remained very dry with NASA SPoRT LIS
0-40cm relative soil moisture values below 15% for much of the
area of concern. If rates are hard enough, the soils could be
more hydrophobic with run-off, but shield precipitation may help
to soften them initially before heavier rates reach most areas.
So hopefully, the slower rates will be more beneficial for most
areas; however, those areas where the inner-core shallow but
intense convective cores reach with 2-5" totals may result in
localized incident or two of possible flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aSKrUPMIqpjzAjgGzinR8Ouz8tBhr8XVAzWzw1qQx4B1uO-PfDPn1iNDlg_U7XKNZKbx57Gzj5Bar3BIGwH33-wS_c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45819658 45739620 45659558 45369419 44689312
44069270 43069246 42559268 42279385 42179511
42509536 43489630 43669675 43859719 44439750
44989756 45379755 45589739 45789700

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 09:52:42

AWUS01 KWNH 310952
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-311250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0902
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Western Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310950Z - 311250Z

SUMMARY...Recent uptick of convective vigor and short-term
training suggests a narrow window of possible 2-4" totals and
possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows warming across SE SD and NE NEB
as upstream shortwave is merging into larger scale closed low
feature resulting in flattening of deep-layer flow across KS into
MO. Simultaneously, outflow-boundary is pressing south, but
orientating west to east across E KS with slightly backed
southerly LLJ across E KS. RAP analysis shows instability axis
along and downstream across SE KS and W MO with 1000-1500 J/kg of
slightly capped MLCAPE. As such, the strengthened deep layer
moisture convergence has recently resulted in stronger convective
response over Jefferson and W Leavenworth county with tops cooling
below -70C, while upstream development continues in the core of
the LLJ in Shawnee county.

CIRA LPW and RAP analysis show solid overlap of enhanced moisture
through E KS with 2.25-2.5" total PWats. Given ample moisture and
convective vigor, recent rainfall rates are pushing 2-2.25"/hr
with length of potential training sufficient for 2-3"+ totals.
Weak southeastward propagation as the meso-high/cold pool
regenerates may deflect ideal training to reduce overall temporal
and therefore eastward areal coverage, especially as local FFG
values increase into central MO. However, with 1hr FFG values in
the 1.5-2" range and 1.5-2.5"/3hr from Waubansee, KS to
Cass/Johnson county in MO, there is a sufficient window for
possible localized flash flooding over the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Mche3yXFZirQAPeSRlClmFkTWihwWCnvvMBhVLAXofXjO3ZsNo_FcV2FzxzCU1Xw1Kgp9MvI7S5HZFLssx3x4jc2Ck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39199428 39059346 38679324 38209362 38269480
38409558 38819634 39149599

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 11:48:52

AWUS01 KWNH 311148
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-311745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0903
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
747 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311147Z - 311745Z

SUMMARY...Concerns for isolated and mainly urban flash flooding
will exist across portions of the Upper Midwest going through
midday.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
well-defined mid-level trough and associated closed 700/500mb low
center across the Upper Midwest which is driving a regional area
of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Much of the current activity
is situated out ahead of a surface low and is elevated in nature
across central and especially southern MN, along with an axis down
across northeast IA.

Focused warm air advection into the region and coupling with the
right-entrance region of the upper-level jet is providing focused
corridors of deep layer ascent. This coupled with modest
instability (MUCAPE values ~500 J/kg), but rather strong low-level
moisture convergence, has been the key driver of the morning
convective footprint across the region.

An axis of 2.0 to 2.25 inch PWs are noted across south-central MN
through central IA just ahead of the approaching cold front, and
this moisture coupled with the aforementioned forcing is helping
to yield rainfall rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour with the
stronger convective cores. The relatively lackluster instability
is actually helping to mitigate the rainfall rate potential a bit,
but the current activity is also rather slow-moving. Therefore,
this is allowing for concerns for locally heavy rainfall totals to
materialize.

The latest multi-model hires CAMs and global model guidance show
some additional amplification of the mid-level trough, and with
the rather strong dynamical forcing, the overall convective
footprint is likely to persist despite the relative lack of
instability.

Slow cell-motions will encourage persistence of locally heavy
rainfall rates that may allow for an additional 2 to 4 inches
going through midday. While generally south-central MN down
through northeast IA should see the heaviest rains, some of these
rains may edge into western WI and northwest IL toward midday.
This rainfall is expected to support concerns for isolated and
mainly urban flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4LJQzYuzxXQ-HBzGZgCP7Av3dfUa7pTfJhNZPESGLyej7pEwhm7IlvUmEARIYsD20jxPGCzu9GxdFKKUqoF0qF7JjLU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45419426 45159272 44319119 43409027 42608984
41918974 41538981 41329016 41319108 42039204
43009321 43549475 43969589 44589633 45229572

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 14:42:36

AWUS01 KWNH 311442
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-311900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0904
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1041 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast MO...Southern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311441Z - 311900Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly urban flash flooding will
exist over the next few hours from locally repeating showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms advancing across east-central MO and into western
and southwest IL. The convection is associated with a well-defined
warm air and moisture advection regime around the southeast flank
of a deeper layer trough over the Upper Midwest.

This coupled with relatively divergent flow aloft and some uptick
in boundary layer moisture convergence has been promoting some
localized expansion and uptick in intensity of this convection
over the last hour. Much of the convection is highly elevated and
focused along a rather strong instability gradient, but with some
cloud-top cooling noted, the activity should tend to persist over
the next few hours as it advances off to the east.

Some expansion of convection is possible across southern MO and
adjacent areas of southern IL as a warm front begins to encroach
on the area, and this will also lead to an increase in PWs which
are quite high across central and southern MO right now with
values of 2.25+ inches. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are
expected with the stronger and more focused cells.

Some localized repeating of convective cells is noted in radar
imagery over the last hour, especially south of St. Louis, and
this may result in some localized 2 to 3+ inch totals as the
general convective mass advances more into areas of southern IL
over the next few hours.

An isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat will exist with
this activity over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9UzJjZfxyFdwt86ZTmdFmlc5bf_MYrCHyK2AqJrQtehf6ZBGi4XFNyeVRKLdZ9RWOdsQxZGTNlE8UycaRvZTVHPyXw0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39368898 38788818 38038808 37328851 36998956
37109116 37559171 38259143 38789045 39248989

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 16:48:14

AWUS01 KWNH 281648
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern New York through Western New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281646Z - 282245Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have developed across portions of
New York into New England. Flash flooding is likely as the storms
interact with the terrain.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have formed in several
clusters from central New York through portions of western New
England this afternoon. These clusters have a history of producing multiple-inch-per-hour rainfall rates. Duration has also been a
distinguishing factor as some portions of central New York have
seen heavy rainfall for several hours. The clusters of storms have
developed ahead of a strong upper level negatively tilted trough,
on the leading edge of a potent low level jet advecting high PWATs
to 1.5 to 1.75 inches right into eastern New York and western New
England. With plentiful terrain in these areas, the combination of
upslope into the south-facing slopes of the mountains, heavy rain
that's likely to persist for multiple hours, and plentiful
moisture allowing storms to train and backbuild will all combine
to make flash flooding likely in this region through the
afternoon.

While the heaviest rain has been in Central New York thus far,
streamers of storms will fill in most areas in eastern New York
over to western New England through the afternoon as peak heating
and instability advection both increase the coverage, severity,
and duration of the strongest storms. Urban and small stream
flooding are most likely, especially off the south-facing slopes
of the mountains and in the urban areas subject to the longer
durations of heavy rainfall. Locally significant flash flooding
can't be ruled out.

High resolution CAMs guidance suggests the most persistent rains
will be in the western areas from Binghamton up I-88, and for
eastern areas from western Connecticut into southern Vermont from
I-91 west. There remains some uncertainty for the Catskills
through the Hudson Valley, where southerly flow may limit the
convective coverage since terrain won't necessarily help
concentrate the heaviest rainfall, and storms to the south may
limit how much instability can advect into that area.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6o50qUhhx870TJnLypXP7q9PoIMPZrXhRGTn_xj_TYcscowWKenmc-4ss_iwnH_rUXoTOivRdeGJ2TftYPIHjSBf5i0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43957288 43157243 42467213 41767207 41417244
41387304 41357405 41327467 41417475 41537502
41507557 41597608 42097667 42927578 43677401

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 14:41:46

AWUS01 KWNH 291441
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-292035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0887
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...Central NY into Parts of Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291435Z - 292035Z

Summary...Ongoing flash flooding threat will continue through at
least early this afternoon as moderate to locally heavy rain
(hourly rates up to 2"/hr) maintains over the region. Locally
significant impacts are possible in parts of the Hudson Valley
where over 5" has fallen already.

Discussion...A favorable synoptic setup for heavy rainfall
continues to evolve this morning, although waning in intensity
somewhat, over parts of east-central New York State and adjacent
southern New England. Stacked low-to-mid level low with a few
embedded circulations extend from near Long Island to the
Adirondacks and is supplying an axis of strong deep layer
convergence. Additionally, this setup is supplying very moist flow
(1.5-1.8" PWs) from the Atlantic just to the east of this
circulation. As the northernmost low rotates around the strong
southern low, this creates a pivoting axis over the Hudson Valley
for longer duration moderate rainfall rates and the highest storm
totals. Rainfall amounts up until 14Z over the last 24-hrs were
over 5" along the Hudson River Valley of NY and as high as around
9.5" just southeast of Albany, NY. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr as
estimated by MRMS this morning have come down and are expected to
remain around or below 2"/hr throughout the day due to limited
instability. However, rates of 1-2" across regions already dealing
with overly saturated soils will be enough to continue producing
scattered to widespread flash flooding. Locally significant
impacts are possible, including additional road closures and
impacts to low-lying infrastructure.

Just to the east of the Hudson Valley throughout southern New
England, a band of moderate to heavy rainfall wrapping on the
east-northeast periphery of the circulation moving inland from the
Long Island Sound will produce potential for isolated to scattered
flash flooding. Although hourly rainfall rates across this region
are again not expected to exceed 2", there could be a brief period
of training that leads to 3-5" amounts and exceeding local FFG
from northern CT to central/western Ma. Additionally, upslope
enhancement into the Berkshires, southern Greens, and Worcester
Hills could lead to locally higher rainfall and higher likelihood
of at least scattered coverage of flash flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VUy7j5RmhBpfKPH27hkG5Iv4_M1v577Qyk1O7NL1cPvjhd-r4csmFZu4GvsE3EKsfpZJQyI6JuSJ4YIbtTJ6kVTJj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43717416 43377343 43097276 42847225 42427177
41987183 41747228 41557291 41387363 41677430
42367441 42857446 43577464

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 15:44:18

AWUS01 KWNH 291544
FFGMPD
NYZ000-292140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0888
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1143 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...Parts of New York State from the St. Lawrence
River Valley to the Southern Tier

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291540Z - 292140Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms with pockets of 2-4" rainfall
totals are possible through this afternoon across parts of New
York State, centered over the eastern shores of Lake Ontario,
which may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Latest regional radar and MRMS estimates show
developing efficient rain-producing showers across far northern
New York State near the St. Lawrence River Valley along a frontal
boundary wrapping southward to the east of Lake Ontario and into
the Southern Tier of New York. MRMS hourly rates have been
estimated up to 2" across far northwest parts of the state so far.
This is all occurring to the west of a strong and stacked low-mid
level low over southern New England, with high PWs being directed
to the north and west into this frontal zone. PWs of 1.5-1.75" via
SPC's mesoanalysis are found across this region and actually
higher from Oswego, NY on northward.

With ample moisture and an axis of convergence in place,
instability is not overly impressive, but is highest over the
highlighted area where compared to the remainder of the Northeast
and New England. SBCAPE values remain around 1000 J/kg and should
keep showers from growing upscale, but the slow forward
propagation and uniform northerly flow could allow for some
repeating of showers. Should this occur, rainfall amounts could
add up to around 2-4" and is supported by recent HRRR and RRFS
runs. 12Z REFS neighborhood probabilities for at least 2" per
3-hrs are between 20-40% and match recent radar trends, with the
expectation that these totals are isolated in nature.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_hEgyMBJLfPtR6htyH1VN-vXi4lhMGye_f7h0I56ngOecaZ6zWxm7Tlm4MWvxaLS72ekk4HIPRrh3eKICsegS2gu6zg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45027499 44627474 43737517 43027532 42527545
42407602 42727661 43577670 44477621 44897560

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 17:40:34

AWUS01 KWNH 041740
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-042338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0938
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...Much of North Carolina into Southern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041738Z - 042338Z

Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are possible through
23z/7pm EDT.

Discussion...Radar shows increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across North Carolina into southern Virginia. 1-2
inch hourly rainfall rates are occurring on an isolated basis in
cells forming in this general region -- highest near Fayetteville.
The convection was increasing due to a number of factors,
including: 1) increasing instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) from
surface heating, 2) ascent from weak mid-level shortwave troughs
just downstream of an upper low over Georgia, and 3) Moist
southerly flow emanating from the Gulf Stream, which was
maintaining 1.5-2.4 inch PW values into a stationary front
extending from near Richmond, VA west-southwest to near Asheville,
NC.

Scattered convection will continue to increase in coverage, with
areas of 1-3 inch totals expected (per models/HREF) in several
areas. Locally higher amounts could be observed where cell mergers
or local training materializes. Model guidance indicates 20-30
percent chances for 2 inch hourly rainfall rates in North Carolina
and 30-50 percent chances in southern Virginia, with similar 3-6
hour flash flood exceedance probabilities in these respective
areas. Urban locales (i.e., Richmond to Virginia Beach) and areas
of lower FFG from central VA through western NC will be more
susceptible to flash flooding. This risk will likely exist
through at least 23Z/7p EDT.

Wilder/Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!78l-GHuzGQEpGLTv6WkPrAw0KPSg4hIhKvdiWBVvP0xGlqSxyGixOwG2-Irc5Sh8ffPxY_DEq_Uz8Xtl6ENq3m9BwpI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MHX...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37917811 37387629 36597614 35887705 35407834
34937946 35228212 35758253 36568148 37347985

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 21:08:24

AWUS01 KWNH 042108
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-050240-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0939
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...southwestern NM into southeastern/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042106Z - 050240Z

Summary...Increasing thunderstorm coverage across southwestern NM
into southeastern AZ through the evening and early overnight may
result in a few areas of flash flooding. Hourly rainfall totals of
1-2 inches and sub-hourly rains of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30
minutes are expected through 03Z.

Discussion...2045Z visible satellite imagery showed monsoonal
convection underway across the higher terrain of southwestern NM
into southeastern AZ. Water vapor imagery showed the center of a
west-east elongated mid to upper-level ridge over south-central AZ
into NM, with deeper layer mean flow from the E to ENE across the
south-central AZ/NM border into northern MX. PW values across
western NM into eastern AZ were average to slightly above average
for this time of year (per blended TPW imagery) and mostly clear
skies through the mid-afternoon have contributed to 500 to 1500+
J/kg MLCAPE across southeastern AZ into far southwestern NM via
20Z SPC mesoanalysis data, with higher instability in excess of
2000 J/kg with southward extent into northern MX.

Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue forming along the
higher terrain of southwestern NM into eastern AZ over the next
few hours, with an eventual movement toward the west and southwest
into the lower deserts and eventually portions of the I-10 and
I-19 corridors which have greater instability. While some slow
cell movement may be observed early on in the storm life cycle,
individual cell speeds of 10 to 20 kt are expected as one nears
the US/MX border due to the presence of 20-35 kt of easterly 500
mb winds over southern AZ into northern MX on the south side of
the ridge axis. Rainfall rate potential will be for 1 to 2 inches
in an hour but also high sub-hourly totals of 0.5 to 1 inch in
15-30 minutes.

Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase through 00Z
across the mountains of southeastern AZ into northern MX (per
recent HRRR/RRFS runs), with these cells generally moving from
east to west. Outflow development within the dry sub-cloud layer
should contribute to eventual merging and clustering of cells with
movement toward the west. As this occurs, locally enhanced rain
rates of 1-2 inches per hour are expected but with much of the
heaviest rain falling in the sub-hourly time frame. These intense
rainfall rates may produce a few areas of flash flooding through
03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4AKAOQd4a6mh9rV27f27afd6zu8KmKZYZQmgBN3vyOCB-eznwNF0QSAt_nYjeYisZmeOGnHnzEpyZgbGVWCSlgp6zZw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34671088 34440963 33560823 32640746 31850739
31510796 31110837 31071013 31121107 31481175
32271168 32891146 33881154

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 23:55:46

AWUS01 KWNH 042355
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-050330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0940
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...far southern VA into central/east-central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042353Z - 050330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood potential will exist across far
southern VA into central/east-central NC for another 2-4 hours. An
additional 2-4 inches of rain will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 2340Z showed lingering
convection along the central VA/NC border into portions of central
NC. Satellite and radar imagery showed an outflow boundary
tracking southward into northern NC, associated with locally
heavier rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour. Farther south, scattered
showers were noted in the vicinity of a mid-level vorticity max
centered roughly between Raleigh-Durham and Rocky Mount,
NC...tracking slowly north to northwest. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 23Z estimated MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg in place across the
region but high PWs of 2.2 to 2.5 inches also remained, supporting
high short term rainfall rates.

While the overall trend in convective vigor appears to be down
with the loss of daytime heating, it seems widely scattered
instances of higher rainfall rate potential (1 to 3 in/hr) will
remain from the VA/NC border into central/east-central NC for
another 2-4 hours as the vorticity max continues to interact with
convectively driven mesoscale outflows. An additional 2-4 inches
of rain will be possible through ~03Z, but these higher totals are
expected to remain isolated/localized in coverage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5zd4Cc_yZnrZ_YNDnuNRpl-QfhuACMPKwKvV-B_loSdZ98UgW7aDhuQxS9WvaLkNyCuzQcBfVur6839lGIxiVh39sHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36817776 36627689 35717707 35137890 35367990
35837997 36197959 36467880

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 00:31:22

AWUS01 KWNH 050031
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-050400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0941
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...northern MO/southern IA into western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050029Z - 050400Z

SUMMARY...A relatively narrow axis of flash flooding will be
possible across northern MO, far southern IA into western IL
through 04Z. Peak rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (locally higher)
are expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0015Z showed a few slow moving
thunderstorms located along a cold to quasi-stationary front
across northern MO. These cells were slow moving within a weakness
in the steering flow and tracking parallel to the boundary aligned
from west to east, supporting peak MRMS-derived hourly rainfall
locally in the 2-3 inch range over the past 1-2 hours. MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg and PWs just near 2 inches were estimated by the
00Z SPC mesoanalysis across the region, supporting high rain rates
beneath modestly diffluent flow aloft. To the west of this axis of
slow moving cells was a forward propagating and loosely organized
cluster of thunderstorms along the west-central IA/MO border.

The forward propagating cluster is expected to maintain a west to
east track in the short term. Given the orientation of the
initiating boundary/front aligned with the mean wind and available
instability, it seems plausible that hourly rainfall rates of 1-3
inches in an hour will continue along a relatively narrow axis
from northern MO into far southern IA and western IL over the next
3-4 hours. These high rates from slow movement or training of
cells may result in flash flooding with potential for an
additional 2-4 inches of rain (locally higher) through 04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!59xWB8QhBVmeEa7EEfjFVzmZijgANAV96YvXpiIgc3mFPqeUyGirJHO8RKvoqVbu0D638Pp7V7t2DN9cedI9vzOsVOg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41129066 40889009 40339019 39999093 39789272
40039414 40779407 40979371 41109207

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 02:41:06

AWUS01 KWNH 050240
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-050615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0942
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...far southwestern NM into southeastern/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050238Z - 050615Z

Summary...Flash flooding will remain possible for another few
hours from the NM Bootheel westward into far southeastern AZ.
Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be likely and localized storm
totals over 2 inches will be possible.

Discussion...02Z satellite and radar imagery showed scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms over the Bootheel of NM into
Cochise and Graham counties, with an overall movement toward the
west on convective outflow. Overlap of convection with a personal
weather station in northern Cochise County showed 0.64 inches of
rain in 15 minutes ending at 02Z, an example of the high short
term rates with the ongoing activity. Additional cells were noted
south of the border into Mexico where SPC mesoanalysis showed
MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, falling off sharply with northward
extent into southeastern AZ along with increasing CIN with
northward extent. PW values have increased a little since the
mid-afternoon, remaining slightly above average for early August.

As the cells from Mexico and far southern AZ/NM continue to
advance downstream toward the west, congealing into a compact
convective cluster is expected with motion following Corfidi
vectors generally toward the west at a progressive pace. However,
there is good model agreement from the HRRR/RRFS and recent runs
of the WoFS to support a localized flash flood concern over the
next 3-4 hours evolving westward from the southern AZ/NM border
into remaining portions of southern Cochise County and Santa Cruz
County, possibly extending into eastern/central Pima County
overnight.

The 23Z-02Z WoFS has been consistent with high probabilities
(70-90+ percent) of 1+ inches across southern Hidalgo into
southern Cochise and Santa Cruz counties through 06Z. Also of note
is the 90th percentile shows 2-4 inches for southern Cochise
County for the same time period, representative of potential spot
maxima. While the threat looks to stay south of the Tucson metro,
a localized flash flood threat will remain for mainly southern
portions of the MPD threat area through 06Z, at which point the
threat of high rain rates appears to shift primarily south of the
border.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8qo6y5sKRcE-KIsO4RzqG_1gxxgQ674rVgw_eWJHthMracitsdcBJedkKjlwAgtOAsdHVXZiN71g9ZafUfyrq7u2CVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32380998 32260848 31690802 31330801 31140831
31111054 31311203 31701262 32091259 32321170

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 05:16:48

AWUS01 KWNH 050516
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-051100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0943
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...SE Nebraska...SW to Central Iowa...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050515Z - 051100Z

SUMMARY...Favorable back-building repeating environment for
elevated thunderstorms overnight. Hourly rates of 1.5-2"/hr
probable to support streaks of 2-4" totals and possible incidents
of flash flooding through late overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Environment is starting to recover well with return
moisture, instability advection from strengthening and broaden LLJ
(25-30kts) in the wake of the initial convective cluster/complex
that continues but is weakening as it enters western IL. While
the surface low and front remain well south in central KS into
northern MO; the 850-700mb frontal zone is sharpening/steepening
in advance of approaching broad larger scale trough over the
Higher Northern and Central Plains as well as the nose of a
70-90kt 250mb jet core out of WY. Diffluence over the Missouri
Valley and the dPVA aloft has aided the strengthening of the LLJ
and FGEN from central NEB through central IA. As the LLJ
slows/broadens at the 850-700mb front, speed and therefore
moisture convergence can overcome the slowly degrading MUCINH and
exploit the steeper lapse rates aloft and therefore pool of
1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE from the western edge of the LLJ axis
across central KS to south-central NEB eastward.
As such, RADAR/GOES-E 3.9um has seen broad area of agitated Cu
grow and cool to scattered CBs across E NEB and SW IA.

CIRA LPW and RAP analysis denotes ample moisture pooled between
the surface and 850mb front across NE KS into SW IA will support
some modest rainfall efficiency as the convective complex
develops/expands across the area over the next few hours. A few
cells are broad enough at this point to support 1-1.5"/hr rates
but this is expected to increase as the larger scale forcing
further helps flux convergence, eventually supporting 1.75-2"/hr
rates. The upper level flow is fairly solid but slightly veered
through the low-level steering from SW to W across 700-400mb,
especially as the preceding wave is helping to flatten 500-1000mb
thickness pattern for a favorable propagation more due east to
promote west to east training/ repeating steering profile. The
more concerning factor is the convective generation point appears
to be stationary or even slightly retrograding over the next few
hours across SE NEB as the approaching jet/dPVA further expands
allowing for a favorable back-building environment. This will
support a longer duration of training especially closer to the source/development point in SE NEB/SW IA.

Spots of 2-4" are probable and may result in localized flash
flooding conditions. There are Hi-Res CAMs even supportive of
higher values in the 5"+ range and this remains a viable
possibility, though these are the traditionally hotter solutions
of the RRFS/NAM-Nest and FV3-LAM, but the setup would not be too
surprising if this were to manifest through 12z, but confidence is
not quite high enough given higher FFG to consider broader areas
of flash flooding likely; but it is close. At this point will
hold off and keep the consideration for flash flooding as
possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-FmUlig2A4m2GQHm1WfbULYorEhYwRz6nDw_-lfPthQ255VG-mrJyZENdAQiUCV4J1vatMa-4KXc-kxqzs0DWC-XpdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42469355 42239298 41809258 41419243 41039247
40639285 40609353 40629466 40629567 40629648
40669723 41149734 41569699 41969595 42379434

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 05:50:52

AWUS01 KWNH 050550
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-051145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0944
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...Much of Maryland...DC...Delaware...Northern
Virginia...Eastern West Virginia Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050550Z - 051145Z

SUMMARY...Narrow but highly efficient/focused slow moving showers
capable of 1.5-2"/hr and focused 2-3"+ totals may result in widely
scattered localized incidents of flash flooding through early
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a classic comma head closed
low over the southern to central Appalachians with broadening
downshear deformation shield of mid to upper-clouds. Embedded
within is a weak 'warm-sector' shortwave over northern VA starting
to shear/shift northeast within the anticyclonic ridge of the mid
to upper-level jet entrance toward the northeast. Deep layer
warm-advection just advance and trailing the wave can be seen very
well in deep layer moisture fields with back-arched nose of
enhanced 2-2.3" Total PWats from the Blue Ridge of N VA extending
southwest into south-central VA. VWP show broad cyclonic curvature
into the effective TROWAL for solid moisture convergence axis in
the vicinity of I-95 and west. A wedge of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
exists from I-95 east across S MD into the southern Delmarva.

So while winds and instability is weak, it is sufficient in a high
potential vorticity environment at the confluence of a broad WAA
regime. Scattered narrow updraft cells are starting to break out
across central to northern VA. Deep warm cloud layer (15Kft+) and
ample moisture support efficient tropical rain-showers with rates
of 1.5-2"/hr. This setup has been consistent with good
historical track record for heavy rainfall production though there
is a bit greater deep layer speed than the prior day or so across
S VA/E NC; so residency may be a bit less than those areas.
However, given proximity to the slow moving deep layer deformation
zone across the region; cells should slow and occasionally pause
to allow for spots of 2-3" possible this morning. Given proximity
to the Washington Baltimore urban corridor, these showers while
very local are prone for localized flash flooding concerns if they
intersect the right area(s), this includes the foothills and peaks
of the Blue Ridge and eastern ridges of the Appalachians which may
have additional low level/upslope support. As such, widely
scattered, localized flash flooding is considered possible through
daybreak.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Aas9thOp771ttjlKPscsHROKR8rJQ2GnKESRv9PftuqTnXRm3r05nI22DkPGqnVNXltJySNpIfIKvZ4znBP-KW4T1k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39667742 39667651 39657568 39067530 38627508
38237516 37907561 37757715 37777791 38067861
38577890 39317879 39657830

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 10:56:24

AWUS01 KWNH 051056
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-051554-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0945
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...southern Iowa, northern Missouri, far western
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051054Z - 051554Z

Summary...An MCS with training convection will persist for a few
more hours this morning, posing an isolated flash flood risk.

Discussion...Training convection has materialized in earnest
generally along an axis between US 34 and the IA/MO border.
Within this axis, areas of 1.5-2 inch/hr rain rates were locally
exceeding FFG in spots, posing an isolated flash flood risk. The
storms were located on the nose of 25-35 kt 850mb flow centered
over eastern KS and northwestern MO, with strong convergence axis
oriented parallel to steering flow aloft favoring training.

The overall scenario for flash flooding will continue for the next
couple of hours given a continued presence of elevated instability
(7C/km midlevel lapse rates) and moisture (1.8 inch PW).
Low-level flow into the axis of convective training will gradually
veer and weaken through the morning hours, eventually allowing for
storms to re-orient and perhaps lose their training character.
While some of this activity may reach western Illinois through
13-14Z, flash flood potential with eastern extent is a bit in
doubt at this time and remains contingent on the degree of
convective training.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7--HqbmklLKMyvNkBvGFGVW-LnfXzpJQ848dwdO4SzB_Ec6vIRQ4QpJrBcClMxhC649XW5tHf6cRv4TzBJEGuNwtSD8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41759444 41689174 41079069 40329069 39949150
40049439 41489554

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 11:24:30

AWUS01 KWNH 051124
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-051622-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0946
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...coastal areas of North and South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051122Z - 051622Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible on an isolated
basis this morning - primarily along coastal areas.

Discussion...Deep convection has remained persistent across the
Gulf Stream and near-coastal areas over the past several hours.
The storms are embedded within a moist and strongly unstable
airmass, with 2.2 inch PW and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE supporting strong
updrafts and efficient, heavy rain rates. Low-level confluence
was also supporting the ongoing convection, and with low-level
trajectories oriented inland from the Gulf Stream, recent
convection has developed just inland from the Gulf Stream with
local rates of 0.5-2 inch/hr noted near Charleston, Georgetown,
and areas just east of Wilmington. While these rates may not
cause flash flooding on a widespread basis, some concern exists
for urbanized areas, where a quick inch of rainfall from efficient
cells could result in local impacts.

Models/CAMs suggest that this threat will persist for a few hours,
with potential for 2-3 inch rainfall totals through 15Z. Flash
flooding is possible given the scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8L3xfTTU9gjH5kGKbikcFUNWJt63zvAwj3ZzZXc7tB2h-WAWWxkmLbEAS0TFAw_NI42-N95wgxRUMVGErgS9tH8SYZU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34877759 34837675 34317701 33447862 32188045
32718066 33308023 34177941

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 16:00:24

AWUS01 KWNH 051555
FFGMPD
IAZ000-051952-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0947
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1154 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...central/southern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051552Z - 051952Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible
through early afternoon.

Discussion...While a lead convective complex has largely exited
the region to the southeast and weakened (now extending across
northeastern Missouri), renewed convective development has
occurred across southwestern into central Iowa over the past
couple hours. The storms are being aided by ascent associated
with a mid-level shortwave trough approaching the region from
eastern Nebraska, while SPC mesoanalyses indicate lingering steep
lapse rates (near 7 C/km) and elevated instability to support
ongoing convection. 1.9 inch PW values continue to support heavy
rainfall. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates have been noted near/east
of Des Moines, while other convection in southwestern Iowa is
moving toward south-central parts of the state that received 2-4
inches of rainfall this morning and currently have near-zero FFG
thresholds. Flash flooding remains possible on at least an
isolated basis through 19Z/2p central given the rainfall scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7d6PkoD8ZrN1hktiKHJy6fTkm0tmjLCwodC1f9F1SaQnfoeNFr8hc7xqI36R0muAOGtTEBzpVgBJUvFEHG5K-eHhOnI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42209424 42169213 41439128 40749150 40699305
40649540 41769564

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 18:04:24

AWUS01 KWNH 051803
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-052102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0948
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/northeast MD into central New
Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051802Z - 052102Z

Summary...Local flash flood risk exists - particularly in
urban/low-lying areas along the I-95 corridor from
Washington/Baltimore through Philadelphia and Trenton.

Discussion...A broken band of shallow convection was drifting
northward at about 10-15 knots across the discussion area and
currently extends from near western sides of Baltimore
east-northeastward to near Philadelphia and Trenton. The
convection is embedded within an abundantly moist airmass (2.2+
inch PW values), leading to efficient rain rates (subhourly 0.5-1
inch totals) within the convection. Cells were currently moving
toward urban land surfaces (especially near Philadelphia/Trenton),
which should cause at least isolated excessive runoff issues in
the next 0-2 hours or so.

As this band lifts northward, it'll likely continue intensifying
due to continued surface heating/destabilization in the ambient
environment. A couple of conditional factors for an increase in
flash flood potential exists, including 1) local backbuilding and
2) any local mesocyclogenesis that may evolve as convection
interacts with a subtle remnant boundary/warm frontal feature in
the region. Either of these factors could prolong rainfall and
bump rates to 2 inches/hr. Should this conditional risk
materialize, the combination of rainfall and urban/low-lying areas
would result in an even higher risk of flash flood impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_CWxtgWzFNv8WfQITykmBz4k2Pun4MhX7In6tImNA4LIjLk5-RCNXJC_YgDmfPNcRAWZdZcfnwMb1n3BriQzaRK3r-E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40677521 40437429 40177408 39757460 39297614
38987714 39527758 40147700

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 19:43:14

AWUS01 KWNH 051943
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0949
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051939Z - 060100Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms will maintain a threat for
flash flooding into the evening across portions of the Upper OH
Valley over the next 3-6 hours. High rain rates on the sub-hourly
scale will likely result in peak rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher) through about 00Z.

Discussion...1920Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms
aligned in a SW to NE axis on the warm side of a diffuse
quasi-stationary front extending from central KY into a low over
southeastern OH, and northward along an inverted trough axis into
far western NY. The front was aligned with a slow moving mid to
upper-level shear axis on water vapor imagery with modest
divergence aloft within the right-entrance region of a 50-60 kt
upper level jet max extending northeastward from eastern OH. A
gradient existed in precipitable water values with 1.5 to 2.0
inches seen on blended TPW imagery and RAP analyses along and just
to the warm side of the front, falling back to about 0.75 inches
over northwestern OH.

low level flow was weak but aligned with the front and deeper
layer mean steering flow from the SW which is a favorable setup
for training. However, the lack of organization of cells due to
the weak shear has resulted in limited residence time for most
cells and outflow dominance. Still, the high moisture environment
has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall of 0.5 to 1.25 inches in 15
minutes and hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, locally in excess of
2 inches, from northern KY into southern and eastern OH. With slow
movement of synoptic scale forcing over the next 6 hours, cells
will likely continue to take advantage of the 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE in place near and east of the front from KY into OH,
eventually reaching portions of western PA/WV into central WV
which tend to be more hydrologically sensitive to high rain rates.
High short term rates are expected to result in storm total
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches on a localized basis which may result
in a few areas of flash flooding through 01Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6dHgVXnvXh63Uw4o8wPNh3eLOHXMrE4t4USPvRrBe1KIbM7OzfaCzQcfxw7iOhEAPrYMWAiayCnTGLQBhLwa8w3bhMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41678032 41487960 40137931 38528035 37588174
37508317 37828439 38438459 39178371 40148206
41108123

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 21:37:56

AWUS01 KWNH 052137
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0950
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern PA into central/northern NY and the NYC
metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052131Z - 060200Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will remain for another
2-4 hours across portions of eastern PA into central/northern NY
and the NYC metro. High sub-hourly rainfall rates will support the
potential for 1 to 2+ inches through 02Z.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 2115Z continued to show scattered showers/thunderstorms extending from portions of southeastern PA
into north-central NJ, although the intensity of rainfall has
lowered compared to earlier this afternoon. Visible satellite
imagery showed a number of low level vorticity maxima embedded
within a broader axis of low level convergence that extended from
the east-central MD/PA border into central NJ, each associated
with locally heavier regions of rainfall. MLCAPE has been limited
to ~500 to 1000 J/kg along this convergence axis, but instability
has also been advecting northward in association with a weak warm
front, with PWs locally in excess of 2 inches.

While the threat for additional flash flooding appears isolated
through the evening, as the diffuse warm front continues to lift
north, weak instability (<1000 J/kg) is forecast by the RAP to
expand into northeastern PA, northern NJ and the NYC metro. Based
on earlier rainfall rates across PA into NJ, the potential will
exist for 15-minute rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and storm
totals of 1 to 2+ inches. Should these higher rates materialize,
heavy rainfall should remain isolated across eastern PA into
northern NJ and southern NY, but overlap with urban or otherwise
sensitive locations could result in flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-n3feBbqWHx8PkPOdSRgqa7EdKtYeyDS7mOEGfbeV_XKOdeXf933WPm_VZsgsbab3xDRbvOqFiMDQbzHYwVjGiYQgyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41577437 41257376 40727369 40147470 39647646
39937719 40557695 41067605 41517526

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 22:50:20

AWUS01 KWNH 052249
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-060445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0951
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...far southwestern NM into central/southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052247Z - 060445Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage into
portions of southwestern NM into southeastern/south-central AZ
through the late evening. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are
expected across these portions of the Desert Southwest on a
localized basis (isolated 3 inches possible).

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite, lightning and radar imagery from
2230Z showed monsoon thunderstorms ongoing across the Mogollon Rim
into the higher terrain of western NM. Estimated instability via
the 22Z SPC mesoanalysis varied from southwestern NM across
central to southeastern AZ, but MLCAPE ranged from ~500 to 2000
J/kg. CIN remained south of the Mogollon Rim but that has been
eroding as evidenced by convective development across some of the
higher terrain of southeastern AZ.

The upper pattern is not much different than yesterday at this
time across the Desert Southwest with an elongated ridge centered
over the central AZ/NM border, however moisture values have
increased for some locations of AZ compared to this time
yesterday, especially closer to southwestern AZ where blended TPW
values showed a greater coverage of 1.6 to 2.0 inch PW values.
Thunderstorms are likely to continue expanding in coverage due to
rain-cooled outflow and new development along terrain features
over the next 2-4 hours. Increasing coverage, especially across
southeastern AZ, should lead to merging and clustering of cells
with westward propagation following the mean steering flow into
the low level easterlies currently in place across southern AZ.
There remains uncertainty with the convective coverage across
central to south-central AZ due to lingering CIN but storm driven
outflow may be enough to overcome the inhibition in some areas.

Despite an expected evolution toward progressive cell motions
toward the west, the environment will be supportive of 0.5 to 1.0
inches of rain in 15-30 minutes and 1-2 inches in an hour. Peak
storm totals are likely to be in the 1-2 inch range, but isolated
2 to 3 inch totals cannot be ruled out through ~05Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VTDNKnG0wyVN45xuHIaH4EjhPtFJ-O3Vy6tBkBjSB2UVb5rRAKBhiHe3J4x_jDmrco2Kxv9Heut9JqRzSb5Bqk_J5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35311157 34911079 33960944 33230805 32540786
32030792 31140833 30941050 31151159 31751241
32871272 33721270 34551261 35041232

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 01:52:52

AWUS01 KWNH 060152
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0953
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern KS into MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060150Z - 060745Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training and repeating thunderstorms are
expected to focus across eastern KS into central MO by 06Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will contribute to 2 to 4 inch totals
through 08Z (locally higher rates/totals), along with possible
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...01Z surface observations showed a quasi-stationary
front extending from northern IL through northern MO into eastern
and southern KS/northern OK. Largely elevated showers and
thunderstorms were ongoing over northern portions of MO where
MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg was in place via the 00Z TOP sounding and
01Z SPC mesoanalysis. Additional thunderstorms had recently
developed about 40-50 miles east of Wichita, KS. Of particular
note was that the region has increased moisture compared to 24
hours ago with PWs of 1.6 to 2.0 inches extending along a broad
region from eastern KS into MO and IL. Aloft, flow was diffluent
across the lower Plains into the mid-MS Valley, located at the
base of a broad mid to upper level trough in place across the
north-central U.S.

Forecasts from the RAP show the low level jet increasing from the
south overnight through 06Z, represented by 25-35 kt at 850 mb
from central KS into central MO. Convergence at the nose of the
low level jet will help to focus a west-east zone of thunderstorms
beneath the diffluent flow aloft. There could be several axes of training/repeating thunderstorms that develop. The environment
will be supportive of hourly rainfall between 1-2 inches and
totals of 2 to 4 inches by 08Z (locally higher rates/totals
possible). Forecast veering of the low level jet after 06Z and
clustering of thunderstorms may shift the focus of heavier
rainfall out of KS into MO, though some uncertainty exists for
when the flash flood threat will end across KS. A mixture of above
and below average rainfall was in place across eastern KS into MO
over the past week, along with varying flash flood guidance
values. Therefore, given uncertainty in exactly where the heaviest
rainfall will setup, the threat is considered possible over likely
at this time.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-oJIY9W-QjTGnq_QakKd8lmWu9gpUJPA4GFSj_WyZ92o7k-BfTJMxbYIGXcFMxnWE6LNJUrpTtxWLk1VxLt0Go2fZAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40289436 40259307 39709159 39069097 38459099
37789161 37449363 37369567 37749762 39229764
39959575

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 01:02:24

AWUS01 KWNH 060102
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-060600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0952
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...WV, MD Panhandle into western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060100Z - 060600Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood threat will linger across
portions of WV into the MD Panhandle and western PA for another
3-5 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and peak additional
rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...0045Z radar imagery showed an axis of scattered
showers and thunderstorms extending from central WV into western
PA, within a zone of weak low level confluence. While mid-level
lapse rates were poor (5.5 to less than 6.0 C/km), a high low
level moisture environment was contributing to pockets of 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE where rain has not significantly cooled surface
temperatures (per SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z). Precipitable
water values of ~1.5 to 2.0 inches will continue to support high
sub-hourly rainfall rates of about 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15-30
minutes and 1-2 inches in an hour. Unidirectional southwest flow
remains beneath weakening right-entrance upper jet support which
may continue to aid with lift to some degree over the next few
hours. Therefore, despite sunset and cooling of the boundary
layer, some degree of instability is expected to remain for
another 3-5 hours to support additional but localized heavy rain
and flash flood potential from WV into western PA. Additional
storm total rainfall of 1-3 inches is expected through 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_jPxcESX9kqzGiJk8uQ2cLg_F5b0h6Ateze1ATxKmjVXeFYgIsb6KObAsBxHo76CzSVmhfKZ3SWOO1STnAsOAa6fbc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42077862 41887796 41027791 39917811 38637923
38078007 37858092 38068191 38438200 39298090
40098021 41707940 41967915

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 04:39:10

AWUS01 KWNH 060438
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-060900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0954
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060435Z - 060900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours as a shortwave drops southwest towards Mexico.
Slow moving storms with hourly rainfall up to 1.5" could cause
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR satellite this evening shows rapidly
cooling cloud tops across far southeast AZ coincident with
deepening convection noted in the regional radar mosaic. These
storms are developing downstream of a weak shortwave impulse
evident in WV imagery rotating W/SW around the base of the monsoon
ridge, with subsequent convective development occurring along
storm mergers and outflow boundaries. The environment across
southern AZ remains extremely favorable for heavy rain, with PWs
measured by GPS and the 00Z U/A soundings around 1.5 inches
overlapped with impressive MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms
this evening have produced MRMS hourly rainfall as much as 1.5
inches, and these rates are likely to continue for a few more
hours.

Despite the slow loss of daytime heating combined with increasing
convective overturning, the high-res CAMs suggest at least a few
more hours of heavy rain likely within this activity. The
southwest motion of the shortwave will place it more favorably
atop robust thermodynamics, and within a pocket of 20-25 kts shear
to help organize thunderstorms into clusters and multicells. This
will additionally enhance the rain rate potential, which is
reflected by both HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities for
1"/hr that remain above 40% through around 08Z, with similar
evolution noted in the hourly rainfall from the UA WRF. While the
general trend should be for these cells to drift SW on mean 0-6km
winds of around 5 kts, locally slower or chaotic motion is
possible at times through mergers/collisions which could produce
as much as 2-3" of rain in isolated locations.

While intensity should begin to wane in the next few hours, this
area of southeast AZ has been wet recently as reflected by 7-day
rainfall departures that are as much as 300-400% of normal. This
makes the already vulnerable region (due to sensitive features
such as dry washes or burn scars) even more susceptible to runoff
impacts. This is reflected by lowering, but still notable, FFG
exceedance probabilities through 09Z before convection wanes more
rapidly, suggesting the flash flood potential will continue for
several more hours tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-znro9JmXPXRX3a5X-ztPM4mEOa9q0HaXtZ0RKnLp3YX3pbptufj2wmTVIRddJxqMS3ok743ehThsvpq5c6eN5dgJMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32551089 32480996 32230915 31970875 31700858
31360865 31180909 31141041 31321162 31651298
32131361 32451338 32371261 32441180

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 07:48:06

AWUS01 KWNH 060747
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-061300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0955
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Kansas through much of Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060745Z - 061300Z

Summary...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist and
repeat from eastern Kansas through Missouri overnight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts. This may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows a broad area
of widespread, but relatively unfocused, thunderstorms stretching
from far eastern Kansas to northeast Missouri. This convection is
forming immediately downstream of a mid-level trough axis
approaching from the Central Plains (through which a weak,
convectively enhanced shortwave has developed over eastern KS)
with additional ascent provided through the RRQ of a jet streak
arcing poleward into the Great Lakes. In the lower levels,
regional VWPs indicate the LLJ at 850mb has increased to 25-30 kts
with some local S/SW backing helping to promote increased
thermodynamic advection. This is materializing as an overlap of
PWs over 2 inches (in convection, 1.6 - 1.8 inches otherwise) with
MUCAPE above 1500 J/kg.

Hourly MRMS rainfall within ongoing activity has been as high as
1.75", but the development thus far has been scattered and
disorganized. This is likely due to modest LLJ intensity thus far,
as well as a lack of overlap between the convergent nose of this
LLJ, which is oriented more E-W, and the accompanying stationary
front which is aligned more NE-SW. However, as the shortwave
approaches from the west, the LLJ should accelerate and subtly
back to force 850mb convergence to be more aligned with the
surface boundary. As that occurs, more cohesive ascent is expected
leading to more organized convection which may becomes an MCS or
rounds of multi-cells within increased 25-35kt bulk shear. During
this time, rain rates are likely to intensify as well, which is
reflected by HREF neighborhood probabilities peaking over 40% for
2"/hr, and supported by HRRR 15-min rainfall that may reach 1"
(brief 4"/hr rain rates.)

Mean 0-6km winds will generally remain progressive at 20-25 kts
from west to east, but this should align generally parallel to the
convergent LLJ nose to result in enhanced training of echoes.
Where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur, total rainfall of
2-4" is likely, with locally more than 5" possible (10-15%
chance.) While this setup appears favorable for organized or
repeating enhanced rain rates, 3-hr FFG is generally high (2.5-3")
and individual cells will be progressive. For this reason, the
threat remains possible rather than likely, with training driving
the greater risk overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-94ZxznreIM2Eb8jNXErvyYplFIbQv-vApeU-yRh_g7BHbxaXs4A9Oe3ro35Zehyo76gty3aIW4Gq38rK7ptipWfB6s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40429419 40219262 39659103 38709000 38168985
37808995 37559050 37449149 37859418 38329606
38999658 39909583

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 19:52:16

AWUS01 KWNH 061951
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-070120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0956
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the
Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061950Z - 070120Z

Summary...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across
portions of the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast through the early evening. Isolated flash flooding will
be possible from hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. Impacts will be
greatest across any urban locations or where recent heavy rainfall
has increased soil moisture.

Discussion...1930Z radar imagery showed widely scattered
thunderstorms extending from the central Appalachians into
portions of eastern PA and southern NY with an average movement
toward the northeast at 15-25 kt. Much of the Mid-Atlantic into
the Northeast contained PWs near 2 inches and 1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE with virtually no inhibition according to the 19Z SPC
mesoanalysis. However, other than terrain and a lee trough (which
extended from the Catskills down into VA near the Blue Ridge
Mountains), forcing for ascent was not notable to focus any
particular region over another.

Despite the weak forcing, the broad region of ample instability
should play a role in additional storm development as they move
eastward over the next several hours. While sufficient shear
exists for organized cells, most storms should be multi-cellular
or pulse in nature with outflows contributing to additional storm
evolution.

The flash flood threat is broad but appears it will remain
isolated in coverage. The greatest impacts will likely occur where
higher rainfall rates can overlap with urban or otherwise
sensitive locations...such as those that received heavy rain over
the past week. Total rainfall from these storms should be capped
at/near 3 inches, but the majority of cells will produce 1-2
inches, with some areas not getting any rainfall through 01Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Taqg9iD3MSrcExtQdVkR6fmeHssUGX7sdjDVEG9SPv_9jwpXHQDPF3chVnPLHVXrDdMxqDmUb1TYSlaOhcVik8i_tY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42677520 42647446 42457405 42327375 41647354
41187360 40357418 39427555 38507784 37057936
37068000 37508017 38557968 40787760 41687690
42337631

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 20:45:34

AWUS01 KWNH 062045
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-070230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0957
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...southern NM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062043Z - 070230Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible through the
remainder of the afternoon into the early evening across portions
of southern NM into far western TX. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches in 15-30 minutes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 2020Z showed the early
stages of convective development along the Sacramento Mountains
along with a mid-level vorticity max/remnant MCV in central Otero
County. The vorticity max may be providing increased low level
convergence into a portion of the Sacramento Mountains with
area-wide PW values over 1 inch, an increase of 0.1 to 0.2 inches
compared to 24 hours ago via blended TPW imagery. Instability was
estimated to be 500-1000 J/kg via SPC mesoanalysis data and the
18Z soundings from ABQ and EPZ.

The larger scale pattern featured a mid to upper-level ridge
centered across AZ, extending eastward across NM and westward
toward southern CA into NV. The upper ridge placement/orientation
results in very weak deeper layer steering flow (average of 5 kt).
Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue along the terrain
and following the weak mean steering flow toward the south over
time. In addition to the slow movement, there could be cell
mergers and very brief training to support locally higher rates
approaching 2 inches in an hour, but the sub-hourly rain rates
should be the main driver of the flash flood threat with 0.5 to
1.0 inches expected in 15-30 minutes. A lack of shear should keep
cells fairly disorganized in nature, but proximity to a few
notable burn scars in the Sacramento Mountains is a concern for
flash flood impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-J4V7d9iy8pH8STH9sx_96yPXFwPprvWM64-FRanw-1hfGIGZN0oNV7YwHUoZXmIxI4qbWx_8cHv16QCTv42vMDk8D4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34880602 34590500 32040521 30960565 31530656
31670730 32400735 33460686

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 22:05:34

AWUS01 KWNH 062205
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0958
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...swrn MO, nrn AR into adjacent sern KS and nern
OK.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062202Z - 070400Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and storm totals of 2 to 4+ inches are expected through 04Z
across portions of southwestern MO into northern AR and adjacent
portions of southeastern KS and northeastern OK.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery from 2130Z showed a multi-cell
cluster of thunderstorms just to the ESE of Springfield, MO with
movement off toward the SE, but with embedded training resulting
in localized hourly rainfall amounts near 3 inches in the vicinity
of Strafford, MO (ending 2115Z). While some isolated cells existed
farther south near the MO/AR border into north-central AR, much of
the region was quiet at the moment. Surface observations revealed
a composite outflow boundary that extended from near the MO
Bootheel into north-central AR near Clinton, before curving back
toward the northwest into southwestern MO. Southwesterly low level
flow represented by 10-15 kt in the 925-850 mb layer, was
overrunning the rain-cooled outflow, helping to support activity
across southern MO into northern AR. SPC mesoanalysis data from
21Z showed PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches across the MOKSAROK 4-state
region along with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE with weak to negligible
inhibition.

Expectations are for the ongoing cluster over southern MO to
continue advancing toward the southeast with time, but with
upstream development along its southwestern flank, supported by
low level flow advecting into the region. This will allow for
training potential with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (but
locally higher rates will remain possible). Near and beyond 00Z,
the RAP forecasts a strengthening of the low level jet from
eastern OK into southwestern MO, which may contribute to increased
convective coverage and additional small thunderstorm clusters.
Mean cluster evolution toward the south or southeast coupled with
a mean west to east motion of individual cells could support
additional training with possible areas of flash flooding through
04Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-7GHkb6L_93wd_2djvAwvvdeYAwKf-GqbKCyiu2awxKeKmqpWEkhQT-Ep_HO87SZNEo6k4Pdy5eltlKXfttuyU3xjI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37829316 37119159 36019096 35279133 34989262
35369408 35949486 36799509 37609460

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 00:32:20

AWUS01 KWNH 070032
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-070530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0959
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into southwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070030Z - 070530Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will exist across
southeastern AZ into southwestern NM through 05Z to 06Z. While
coverage looks to be isolated, locally high rainfall rates of 1 to
2 in/hr look likely at times.

DISCUSSION...0015Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed
lingering thunderstorms across the higher terrain of
eastern/southeastern AZ into southwestern NM, with some southward
development of cells over the past 1-2 hours, on and well ahead of
rain-cooled outflow. Cloud tops on infrared imagery have been
warming over the higher terrain but convective outflow looks to be
igniting additional development toward the south where MLCAPE is
estimated to be 500-1500 J/kg with little to no inhibition via the
00Z SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, PW values were similar to
yesterday (1.0 to 1.4 inches), near climatology for early August.

Isolated thunderstorm development on terrain features and storms
forming on the advancing outflow will provide a locally increased
chance for isolated flash flooding over the next 3-5 hours. Hourly
and sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches appears to fit the
environment given 0-6 km AGL mean layer winds of less than 5 kt in
advance of any outflow. Even storms developing on outflow could
produce a quick 15-30 minutes of rain near 1 inch. Any flash flood
issues are expected to remain localized and beyond 05Z - 06Z,
forecast guidance suggests the bulk of any lingering convection
should be south of the border into Mexico, following a mean
northerly flow around the the east side of a mid-upper level ridge
centered over northwestern AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5HmoC4fVn4rahN4ZYCjD_2y4A4ywPx9FX-AjO8HQD_8rsuu4nSD4n1nEEd-snb6qko3KCuvQxD5J3BrFir3UDmsH4io$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33810999 33790984 33740973 33650959 33530947
33450936 33420916 33410891 33360868 33260844
32900812 32120783 31430782 31130820 31050893
31110988 31281048 31941060 32861046 33381042
33611033 33751021 33801007

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 05:25:20

AWUS01 KWNH 070525
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0960
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070523Z - 071000Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will expand across
eastern Kansas and then repeat through the morning. Rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr will be common, leading to 2-4" of rain. Flash flooding
is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows development
of thunderstorms across portions of eastern Kansas. This activity
is developing along the nose of a modest but intensifying 850mb
LLJ which has risen to 20-30 kts over southern Kansas and into
Oklahoma. This LLJ is emanating from a plume of 1.5" PWs and 2000
J/kg MUCAPE, helping to transport these robust thermodynamics
northward while concurrently isentropically ascending a stationary
front to the south. The convergence along the nose combined with
this isentropic lift is occurring within a region of mid-level
thickness diffluence to additionally enhance ascent. It is this
WAA beneath the collocated synoptic lift which is resulting in the
rapid expansion of thunderstorms during the past hour.

The high-res CAMs are in good general agreement that thunderstorms
will continue to expand and then repeat across eastern Kansas.
This will be in response to a subtle increase in the LLJ reaching
30-35 kts, while slowly veering more to the ENE. The resulting WAA
should provide sufficient thermodynamic replenishment to allow for
storms to repeatedly fire and then track slowly E/SE through the
morning. With rain rates progged to be 1-2"/hr at times (40-60%
chance of 1"+/hr from both the HREF and REFS), repeating of these
cells could cause stripes of 2-4" of rain with isolated higher
amounts possible (5-10% chance of 5 inches according to the HREF).

7-day rainfall across eastern Kansas has been quite variable, with
some areas receiving very little rainfall while others have
exceeded 200% of normal. This has resulted in a sharp gradient in
soil moisture, and 3-hr FFG that varies from as low as 1.5" to as
high as 4" (gradient from ENE to WSW). Despite this, the
likelihood of repeating heavy rain rates creates FFG exceedance
from the HREF that spikes to 20-30% later this morning, suggesting
at least an isolated flash flood risk is developing. The greatest
chance for impacts appears to be between Wichita and Topeka (in
the vicinity of Emporia and north to I-70) where the LLJ
convergence may maximize and linger, but any location that
receives repeating rounds, especially atop the more saturated
soils, could experience impacts due to flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7pY6b9sRqR1hrT5CYrkHtU3uhOEt5x-6mD4qWrJMh29PTaWaPidgkISdIuwGKqfmgVMxhFPXSrW-0twGBqwckTpLtf4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40039682 39609577 38999482 38129427 37329416
36819477 36749591 36849671 37329739 38159781
38839818 39539852 40029810

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 09:51:14

AWUS01 KWNH 070951
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070949Z - 071500Z

Summary...Persistent and slow moving thunderstorms will continue
across eastern Kansas through the morning. Rainfall rates as high
as 2"/hr are likely within these storms, leading to 2-4" of rain
with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
continued expansion of clusters of thunderstorms positioned over
eastern Kansas. This activity has been ongoing for several hours
now, and is likely to continue well into the morning. Recent MRMS
hourly rainfall has been as much as 2" in isolated locations, with
overnight rain as much as 4" in a narrow corridor between I-35 and
I-70 west of Emporia leading to FLASH unit streamflow response as
high as 300 cfs/smi.

The setup for continued heavy rainfall is quite favorable. Forcing
for ascent continues to be driven by an 850mb LLJ that has
strengthened to 40 kts over central KS, with rapidly veering winds
between 925-700mb helping to advect this moisture (overlapped with
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg to improve thermodynamics) into the area.
This is seen clearly on the advected LPW fields showing
convergence of the 850-700mb PW directly into the ongoing
convection. The accompanying WAA is not only converging into
850-700mb boundary, but simultaneously isentropically ascending a
stationary front just to the SW within a region of mid-level
thickness diffluence to additionally support large-scale lift.
This suggests that convection will continue well into the morning,
which is supported by high-res CAMs simulated reflectivity.

Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely to continue for several more
hours as indicated by HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities.
This will increase the flash flood risk across the area as storms
repeatedly develop within the WAA and then track E/SE. Although
individual cells should be generally progressive as propagation
vectors are above 20 kts, continued development back into the
elevated thermodynamics to the west will support
training/repeating, and the HREF indicates a 20-25% chance of
locally as much as an additional 5" of rain through late morning.
This will occur atop soils that have become saturated already by
morning rainfall, so any additional rainfall will likely quickly
become runoff, leading to an increased potential for isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7TThY2Lzw_ncSwjzyGJ_szPs-g_dpGG85dUDJxQBVZXX2jtYgKliGfJlC81UVCyZYVAwMKXQKjRmHvOBu9IgXLuqrEU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40319717 40299651 39599599 38489503 37889489
37229498 36759592 36819690 36869717 37079758
37389776 37939801 38789797 39509794 40089765

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 15:04:14

AWUS01 KWNH 071504
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0962
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1102 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania, far northern West Virginia,
far southwestern New York State, western/northern Maryland

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071501Z - 072101Z

Summary...A few spots of FFG exceedance were noted just northeast
of Pittsburgh over the past couple hours. At least isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible this morning, with an increasing/expanding threat expected through the early afternoon.

Discussion...Scattered deep convection was noted primarily across
the western 1/4 of PA this morning, with more isolated storms
observed over northern WV, central OH, and far southwestern NY
state. The storms are in an abundantly moist environment (2+ inch
PW) that, when combined with modest westerly steering flow, was
fostering areas of 1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates that were locally
exceeding FFG in a few spots. The ongoing scenario should persist
for a few hours due to continued surface heating of this moist
airmass and ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough
approaching from Ohio. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
expected in the short term.

With time, models (particularly CAMs) depict an increase in
convective coverage through the afternoon hours particularly
focused on central PA and vicinity. This increase in convective
coverage should result in increase flash flood potential given the
high PW airmass and modest steering flow, although models also
hint at gradual upscale growth into clusters/linear segments that
might forward propagate and limit the extent (space/intensity) of
rain rates. Still, with downstream areas of central/eastern PA
having been wet from prior rainfall, instances of flash flooding
can be expected through the day on at least an isolated basis.
This threat will likely extend beyond the 21Z expiration time of
this MPD.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qUx9r_EKkKu68gs0HL89IGbqmUcDHD6--ek4LKzmoQ341hOBetdKXr16jS0HZmWQNAfcCdBAeNpXQf_8VimDDxViBw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42657839 42247627 41297545 39917576 39407742
39247979 40068077 41768004

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 15:25:16

AWUS01 KWNH 071525
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-072123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0963
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1124 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, western
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071523Z - 072123Z

Summary...Robust thunderstorm development over western Minnesota
will pose a flash flood risk as it spreads eastward/southeastward
across the discussion area through 21Z/4p central.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have quickly developed across western
MN and vicinity (near Willmar, Redwood Falls/west of Mankato) and
were already producing spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS.
The storms were in a strongly unstable environment, with 7-8C/km
mid-level lapse rates, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and 1.5+ inch PW values
all supporting intense updrafts with heavy rainfall. Storms are
also forming ahead of a mid-level wave along the ND/MN border, and
confluence along a surface trough/front across western portions of
the discussion area was also fostering updraft development amid
modest convective inhibition.

Models/CAMs are in decent agreement that storms will continue to
expand in coverage while remaining intense with eastward
progression across southern MN/northern IA and perhaps western WI
through the afternoon. There is potential that storms evolve into clusters/lines that forward propagate, though 1.5 inch PW will
support locally heavy rainfall. FFG thresholds are in the 1.5
inch/hr range (locally lower near Minneapolis/St. Paul Metro) and
may be readily exceeded at times on at least an isolated basis.
Soil moisture data (per NASA) suggests wet soils with downstream
extent into southeastern MN and eastern IA, supporting at least an
isolated flash flood threat in those areas. This will will likely
persist through 21Z/4p central today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7hOFcbOWSbV96q1-BgdSvu3nv-h7oBELFloglax0jlt96wxPxNhUYf97_JkEuirS2OGJ4PqgSJx6hXQIEhBaUANGDL8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46059444 45819284 44919146 43779103 42809142
42259233 42179463 43159548 44159557 45639546

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 18:02:02

AWUS01 KWNH 071801
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-080000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0964
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of New York, New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071800Z - 080000Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms in from Pennsylvania and central
New York state will eventually help prompt isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding across the discussion area through
00Z/8p eastern.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered
thunderstorms across PA/NY generally from Ithaca southward through
Harrisburg and eastward to near Scranton. The storms are in an
abundantly moist airmass (near 2 inch PW), and with weak/modest
steering flow across much of the region (10-15 knots from the
WSW), local rain rates to around 2 inches/hr have been noted per
MRMS at times due to slow storm motions.

Meanwhile, the downstream airmass (encompassing much of the
discussion area) is heating up/destabilizating and will soon
support convection both 1) moving eastward from PA/NY into the
region and 2) developing across the region. Ground conditions are wet/sensitive from prior rainfall over the past few days, and
local FFGs are near zero across northern NJ and around 1 inch/hr
from central NJ through Philadelphia northward into much of
southern NY state. Areas of flash flooding are expected as storms
migrate eastward.

The overall degree of flash flood risk may depend on convective
mode -- more forward propagating convection (with upscale growth)
might limit rain rates some what. Recent radar trends are
concerning though, and suggest that a mix of lines and merging
cells can be expected, increasing local rain rates to 2 inches at
times and on an isolated to scattered basis. Flash flooding is
likely, and some concern exists for impacts to urban areas from
Philadelphia northeastward to New York City and points northward.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_lCT-DrvsqwXmxI3ya_ZKS9wYO3J7DbcnIC16ujZk0OrxGBAhGoyK9e-8Fm9wlpRzBLo5gnqUSGjgCYgKUPz6UJZLdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BUF...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43247572 43247372 42247301 41467295 40727339
40157412 39847519 40277594 41587617 43017663

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 19:28:14

AWUS01 KWNH 071927
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0965
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...OH Valley into central/southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071925Z - 080100Z

Summary...At least isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding
are expected across portions of the OH Valley into the central
Appalachians through the early evening. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches are expected.

Discussion...19Z radar imagery across the upper OH Valley into
portions of the central Appalachians showed scattered
thunderstorms with a few regions of greater coverage. Trends over
the past 1-2 hours have shown increased coverage of storms over
southwestern OH, from eastern KY into western VA and along the
Cumberland Plateau of TN. The storms farther north were located
ahead of an advancing shortwave trough, with the right-entrance
region of a 50-60 kt upper jet max enhancing upper level
divergence across portions of the upper OH Valley. The broad
region from the OH Valley to the Appalachians contained 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE and modestly positive PW anomalies of +1 to +2 above
the mean.

Given speed shear was low to modest at best across the area, storm
organization should remain limited across the region but the high
moisture environment and varied storm motions ranging from ~15 kt
up north to ~5 kt down south should allow for locally higher
rainfall rates with hourly values of 1 to 2+ inches expected.
Storm mergers with related outflow interactions and subsequent
convective development could support brief areas of training as
well. While the flash flood threat doesn't appear to be
particularly focused in any given area across the OH Valley into
the central and southern Appalachians, at least a few areas of
flash flooding will be likely given flash flood guidance values
under 2 inches in 1 and 3 hours for portions of the region,
although flash flood coverage should remain limited due a lack of
larger scale forcing.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ei3Vu7eEwx7cEY9EKWxtWelQa4XQH93sypzS1Ul3D_ENoW6RlpB8NYPVhCBfujdZ1xwR6j1AiHHhwgJrj_1gyjj-w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40018483 39648311 39278175 39078089 38908008
38347989 37958001 37198054 36268135 34978323
34798547 36248551 37588559 38878644 39528637
40008576

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 20:08:42

AWUS01 KWNH 072008
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-080200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern AZ into southwestern UT and portions
of southern/eastern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072005Z - 080200Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible through
02Z from northwestern AZ into southwestern UT and portions of
southern/eastern NV. Hourly to sub-hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches
are expected.

DISCUSSION...1945Z satellite imagery showed maturing cumulus and a
few thunderstorms along portions of the higher terrain from
eastern/southern NV into southwestern UT and northwestern AZ. PW
values have increased compared to 24 hours ago over southern NV
and southwestern UT with the 18Z VEF sounding showing 1.4 inches
of precipitable water. PW values were most anomalous across
southern NV with 150 to 200 percent of normal depicted for what is
already the peak climatological max of moisture across the region.
The upper pattern showed that the center of a mid to upper level
ridge was located over southwestern UT with deeper layer steering
flow of 5 kt or less over the region.

While convective inhibition remains at this relatively early hour
outside of the terrain, expectations are for continued daytime
heating to erode remaining CIN across portions of the region with
expanding thunderstorm coverage over the next 3 hours through 23Z.
While the immediate Colorado River Valley along the NV/AZ may stay
free from thunderstorms through the early evening given
uncertainties of eroding CIN, slow movement of cells and the
anomalous moisture should support high rainfall rates with 0.5 to
1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes expected in neighboring locations and
into the Slot Canyon region of southwestern UT. Flash flooding
will be possible with storm totals generally in the 1-2 inch
range, although storm totals locally over 2 inches will be
possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-nQHCaNGCQ3v6Jh-fEt-4OaYdRSVRt-S3l6f1NLAVqt4dwFQd_A6Fh3XoTCFbBYScSG96ifxpTJFF42UbAGftP4862Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39051410 38871305 38511233 37851180 37491170
36911162 36431150 36051149 35571138 35221148
34941190 34821314 34701381 35171470 35351506
35801576 36521648 37181676 37821681 38241656
38631622 38851566 39011507

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 20:46:22

AWUS01 KWNH 072046
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0967
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...D.C. into northeastern MD, northern DE and
southern NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072044Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain with 1 to 3+ inch totals will pose a
risk of flash flooding from D.C. through northeastern MD, northern
DE and southern NJ. The flash flood threat is expected to
translate from NW to SE through 01Z.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery at 2030Z showed scattered
thunderstorms advancing ESE across eastern and southeastern PA
with an outflow boundary advancing from southeastern PA into
northern MD. Out ahead, a low level confluence axis was supporting
slow moving thunderstorms from Baltimore and points north along
I-95 in northeastern MD. While the outflow is progressive toward
the southeast, convective development out ahead is aligned with
the mean steering flow from WSW to ENE or SW to NE, which should
allow for at least brief areas of training. Thunderstorms are
expected to continue advancing south and east into the northern
Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours and MLCAPE of 2000-2500 along
with PWs near 2 inches will be supportive of high rainfall rates
between 1 and 2 inches in an hour. However, where cell training
maximizes, hourly totals in 2 inches will be possible. The flash
flood threat will be greatest along the urban corridor from D.C.
to Philadelphia, with the threat advancing downstream into
portions of the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and portions of
southern NJ into the early evening hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5lxAfAXOfYW4oroDK9G0-9d8NUjBtrvIs8iPP2m3HLEvuV4nDe79WTGkAdh229hvVGQgGoKpJvQrMn7CWVasWmj6agQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40347455 40347409 39877371 38967475 38707591
38827691 39067718 39407705 39857624 40247531

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 21:38:52

AWUS01 KWNH 072138
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-080330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0968
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...southern MO into northern AR and eastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072136Z - 080330Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is likely across
portions of southern MO into northern AR and eastern OK through
00Z. Training of heavy rain within the expanding area of
thunderstorms is expected to allow for 2 to 4 inch totals (locally
higher) and areas of flash flooding through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery from 2120Z showed a
well-defined MCV over western MO with isolated convective
development to its southwest over southwestern MO. Meanwhile area
radar imagery showed a SSE propagating cluster of thunderstorms
along with an MCV over south-central OK, preceded by an outflow
boundary to its south, curving northward into eastern OK, where
cloud cover from the MO MCV has contributed to a differential
heating boundary between southwestern MO and areas west and north
of the MO MCV. A smaller outflow boundary was also analyzed in the
vicinity of the Ouachita Mountains over south-central AR. The
environment to the south and east of the large
outflow/differential heating boundary contained an estimated
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches via 21Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.

While there is likely some weak subsidence behind a smaller MCV
over north-central AR, advancement of the western MO and OK MCVs
slowly southeast will be coincident with an increase in the
southwesterly 925-850 mb winds from eastern OK into western
AR/southwestern MO into the 15-25 kt range per recent RAP
forecasts. The approaching mid-level ascent coupled with low level
overrunning beneath broadly diffluent/divergent flow aloft should
support an increase in thunderstorms from eastern OK into southern
MO and central/northern AR and over the next 2-3 hours. Individual
cells tracking from west to east are expected to focus axes of
training heavy rain with 1 to 2+ inch per hour rainfall, as the
cluster of storms tracks eastward/southeastward with time. Some
areas of flash flooding may occur as a result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IZMFEl4KadTsIy9nPalonlyxyIjUhwFQIQYnXGqDG3evucnsRcFWrDfdmUfz2om3bejnS7KxboZo2hM9dIphS4OUZo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37479106 37219025 36409024 35699084 35329144
34769257 34689380 35179469 36189507 37249365

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 00:09:40

AWUS01 KWNH 080009
FFGMPD
NMZ000-080510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0969
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern third of NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080007Z - 080510Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of east-central to eastern NM through about 06Z. Peak hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches can be expected in a few locations.

DISCUSSION...2335Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed
ongoing thunderstorms across portions of the Sacramento Mountains,
northward toward about I-40. Additional, scattered thunderstorms
were located over portions of northeastern NM, to the north of
I-40 and east of I-25. An axis of estimated MLCAPE ranging from
500 to 1500 J/kg extended southwestward from the northern TX
Panhandle into east-central NM where precipitable water values of
0.8 to 1.1 inches existed, per 23Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

The northern half of NM was situated beneath the southeastern edge
of a large mid to upper-level ridge centered over southwestern UT,
with weak deeper layer steering flow from the north to northeast
of less than 10 kt. This was contributing to a few slow moving
cells but a broader outflow boundary was becoming better defined
from Torrance County, northeastward into northeastern San Miguel
County. Meanwhile, the current 15 kt VAD wind measured 850 mb wind
at KFDX is forecast to increase following the typical diurnal
cycle into the 20-25 kt range by 04Z from the northern TX/NM
border into portions of eastern NM, which should increase
overrunning and convergence along the leading edge of the outflow
boundary as it likely continues to advance S to SSE over the next
few hours. The environment will be supportive of locally high
hourly rainfall values of 1 to 1.5 inches, but with isolated
hourly totals near 2 inches possible. These high rates are
expected to affect portions of the eastern third of NM over the
next 3-5 hours. The flash flood threat will likely end from north
to south with time with isolated storm totals generally expected
to be capped in the 1 to 2 inch range (locally 2+ inch totals
possible) given an expectation for increasing forward speed with
the advancing outflow.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6kyBPOW577k_oS_aFv3fIRJE3gRFw-Svklvt7tes2iB7q9XJjqtwDQMc8Sbz-ftrF8gbohY67d5smx6LpJIFKIZdbqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36250359 36160310 35180313 33600358 32720386
32330456 32330528 32480564 32910586 33840591
34150584 35260568 35810528 36180406

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 01:45:22

AWUS01 KWNH 080143
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0970
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
941 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...eastern IN into OH/northern KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080140Z - 080700Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be possible from parts of
eastern IN into OH and possibly northern portions of KY through
07Z. Training will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated totals of 2 to 4 inches.

Discussion...Radar imagery through 0115Z showed an increase in the
coverage of scattered thunderstorms over eastern IN, located just
on the cool side of a remnant outflow boundary that extended from
just northeast of Indianapolis, IN into northeastern KY. Water
vapor imagery showed an approaching shortwave trough from WI to
eastern MO, advancing eastward, with about 15-20 kt of 925-850 mb
flow in place from the OH River into central IN/OH, out ahead of
the shortwave trough. Central IN seemed to have both the high
moisture (1.8 inch PW) and notable instability (2100 J/kg MLCAPE)
seen on the ILX and ILN soundings, but ILX was drier and ILN was
more stable.

As the upstream shortwave continues to advance east over the next
6 hours, RAP guidance shows the 925-850 mb flow out ahead
increasing into the 20-30 kt range over IN/OH/northern KY. The
increasing ascent ahead of the shortwave and isentropic lift over
the remnant outflow boundary should allow for increasing
thunderstorm coverage across eastern IN into OH over the next 3-6
hours. Areas of stability currently present over southern OH due
to earlier rainfall are expected to destabilize later tonight with
the advection of low level moisture back into the region. While
850-300 mb mean layer winds are progressive from the W to WSW a
20-25 kt, the increasing low level jet of nearly a similar
orientation could support some repeating and training of any
smaller thunderstorm clusters that develop. The environment will
be supportive of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches with
isolated storm totals of 2-4 inches. With much of the area
containing 3-hr flash flood guidance values of around 2 inches,
some areas of flash flooding may occur through 07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9P7la5YcLmUEyO6YQN4o5aU3cFfnigPMnnyXFttmi3qADcsKdDMCspIPG9Qj21yd_mV9fyG5051Cjem39xIaGPjerew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41748217 41298189 40688192 39428248 38668369
38588448 38698582 39268674 40298659 40978573
41348359

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 03:26:30

AWUS01 KWNH 080326
FFGMPD
LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0971
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Southern Missouri through far Northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080324Z - 080900Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to move slowly
across the Ozarks and towards the ArkLaTex overnight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are expected, which through slow storm motions or
repeating cells could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows multiple
clusters of thunderstorms moving slowly from southern Missouri
through far northeast Texas. This activity is developing in
response to multiple MCVs noted in radar, downstream of a more
prominent shortwave digging out of the Central Plains. These
features are driving locally enhanced ascent, with additional lift
occurring along outflows and remnant differential heating
boundaries. The thermodynamic environment across the area is
characterized by PWs around 2 inches and collocated MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg, to support hourly rainfall which has been measured
via MRMS to be as high as 1.5 - 2.0 inches in the past few hours.

The high-res CAMs differ in the evolution with respect to coverage
and position of convection, but nearly all solutions show at least
scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain rates continuing the next
few hours. The focus will likely be along and south of the current
MCVs as they locally enhanced ascent, while modest 25kt bulk shear
helps organize new development into additional clusters. The HREF
and REFS both indicate a 30-50% chance of at least 1"/hr rain
rates for several more hours, supported by modest 850mb inflow
resupplying the favorable thermodynamics northward into the area.
0-6km mean winds are progged to remain light at just around 5 kts,
and as the inflow veers overnight, Corfidi vectors may collapse to
support weak and chaotic storm motions, aided by boundary
collisions and storm mergers. This will create 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts above 4" possible

Although portions of the Ozarks of AR and MO have experienced
slightly above normal rainfall the past 7-days, much of this
region has been dry, leading to elevated 3-hr FFG that is
generally 3-4 inches. These dry antecedent conditions will likely
limit the flash flood potential overnight. However, an isolated
risk will continue for several more hours, especially where these
intense rain rates move most slowly or across any of the locally
more vulnerable soils.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9WUdpvHSnaEphrnKLG9fG6cvi7BJbOq5TSOy-55dFJITP9bEe07Jig8pclUIXkJDUE0HRWD9DiVJzmCMJxvSWrkhGgE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37729186 37529059 37079033 35919064 34199151
33729200 33339280 32809326 32619405 32899455
33219498 33789532 34769539 36229460 36929408
37449326

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 09:59:42

AWUS01 KWNH 080959
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-081500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0972
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Arkansas into far northern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080957Z - 081500Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across
southwest/south-central Arkansas through late morning. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are expected, which through slow storm motions
could produce 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a
rapid uptick in thunderstorm activity across southwest Arkansas.
This activity is blossoming rapidly downstream of an MCV evident
in the GOES-E ProxyVis satellite imagery, with the rapid growth
driving a coincident increase in LightningCast probabilities. This
suggests that convection will continue to strengthen the next few
hours, supported by an impressive overlap of PWs measured via GPS
of around 2 inches and MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg. Despite this
convection being quite fresh, hourly rainfall in excess of 1 inch
has already been measured by MRMS, additionally suggestive of the
favorable environment in place.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with this early activity, as both
the HRRR and RRFS are completely missing this new development.
However, there is a signal in both ARWs which is translating to a
reasonable solution in the HREF blended-mean QPF suggesting 2-4"
of rain with locally higher amounts above 5" possible (10-20%
chance from the HREF). This will be due to the anticipated
extremely slow movement of the convection as mean 0-6km winds
remain just around 5-10 kts.

850mb inflow is modest at just 10-15 kts as reflected by both the
SPC RAP analysis and regional VWPs. However, this is still
sufficient to drive strong convergence as it exceeds the mean wind
by almost almost double in some places. The veering of this inflow
will additionally result in Corfidi vectors becoming aligned
against the mean wind and collapsing, which will result in
backbuilding and training cells with net motion approaching 0kts
at times, lengthening the duration of heavy rainfall.

Antecedent conditions are quite dry (NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil
moisture generally below the 10th percentile) from a lack of
recent rainfall, and 3-hr FFG is elevated at 3-4 inches. However,
the favorable setup for very slow moving storms with intense rain
rates could still overwhelm soils, at least locally, leading to
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6i0XH22n0pnAo03t-i74tSXmem3oD7mx8nuvXArQGw4Pq9xKhlzMBWdJQYzP3Pfe5XtSNv5RgCzB0yTFuTgLcqzjkeg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35799328 35589182 34759147 33959151 33299200
32869276 32639359 32809436 33699427 35439397

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 13:01:40

AWUS01 KWNH 081300
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-081557-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0973
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...West Virginia to Central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081257Z - 081557Z

Summary... Isolated flash flooding possible across portions of
Western Virginia to central Pennsylvania.

Discussion...Satellite shows brightening cloud tops and increasing
lightning near the West Virginia and Pennsylvania border. Rainfall
rates are nearing an inch per hour on an isolated basis with
eastward moving, training cells embedded in ~30 kt westerly flow
aloft. Storms are embedded with an airmass characterized by
1.5-1.7 inch PWATS and persistent low-level moist advection into
the discussion area. Instability is marginal (~1000 J/kg), but
sufficient to maintain ongoing activity. Additionally, a
mid-level shortwave trough centered over northern Ohio was moving
toward the discussion area, providing ascent to support continued
heavy rainfall beneath the storms.

Isolated flash flooding is possible in sensitive terrain in the
northern West Virginia -- potentially including towns of Fairmount
and Morgantown. The foothills of the Appalachians in southwestern
and central Pennsylvania will also be susceptible to localized
flooding. A quick 1-2 inches of rain in a hour may exceed local
FFG thresholds (currently in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range). The cells
are likely to persist as they move eastward at around 15-25 knots,
reaching portions of south-central PA and western Maryland through
15Z/11a eastern.

Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_bVI_MqvZ69MBhQY2MqwqAs9DZ8WooGZlGXPGCPn9-PeUVuKMOifmDqKFKyN_mmljP5JbOdTplUMl8oFlerPYmb8h1c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40707936 40637834 40597743 40297680 39757748
39267847 38747948 38548039 38918149 39198188
39218191 40158130 40568060 40668005

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 15:57:42

AWUS01 KWNH 081557
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0974
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1156 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...ArkLaTex and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081555Z - 081855Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding risk continues across the
Arklatex...

Discussion... A near stationary band of thunderstorms has
developed across Southwest Arkansas along an outflow boundary from
convection across the area this morning. Convection is also
forming along this boundary westward to the Texas/Oklahoma border.
Satellite shows convection and lightning expanding within this
storm cluster. Rainfall rates (per MRMS) are as high as 2-3" per
hour on a localized basis, nearing hourly FFG thresholds, while
MRMS Flash responses were low to moderate, suggestive of local
runoff potential beneath ongoing cells.

The storms are embedded in 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per RAP/SPC
mesoanalyses) and 2 inch PW values, supporting heavy rainfall and
efficient rainfall processes. This moisture/instability combo
along with subtle confluence rooted in the 850-700mb layer should
sustain storms for at least another couple hours. Weak steering
flow aloft will enable slow/negligible storm motions, and spots of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates are likely to occur while storms persist.

Models/CAMs suggest that this threat may diminish through 18-19Z
or so as weak low- to mid-level convergence further weakens.These
trends will be monitored through the early afternoon as there
remains some uncertainty if the storms may persist beyond this
time period.

Cook/Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5QyJ2iRPGqMoWOkDx9XRQZJWqW1Qxop2W2xXpNNEUJRsLU7qj6fbDklwzjn1DyjIAO3S6IVKTDxwzNOYA997Q_12SnY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34819317 34679216 33979209 33259368 32989584
33009634 33859639 34319522

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 16:26:14

AWUS01 KWNH 081626
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-081954-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0975
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...I-95 urban corridor from Baltimore to
Philadelphia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081624Z - 081954Z

Summary...A few areas of heavy rainfall could pose a primarily
urban flash flood threat along the I-95 corridor over the next 2-4
hours.

Discussion...A forward-propagating line of convection is currently
organized along an axis from York/Harrisburg, PA southwestward to
Frederick, MD. The storms are moving at a decent pace (around
25-30 knots or so), but are in an environment characterized by 1.8
inch PW values and ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The downstream airmass will
likely support a continued heavy rainfall threat with this
activity, and areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates (locally higher)
will accompany this activity as it reaches the Baltimore to
Philadelphia I-95 corridor and surrounding area through
approximately 1730-1830Z (130-230p eastern). Local FFG thresholds
are near zero across Baltimore and closer to 1 inch/hr near
Philadelphia, though urban sensitivities could result in excessive
runoff even with sub-FFG threshold rainfall rates. Areas of
primarily urban flash flood instances are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dyZNF6IXYUjUrHMYGZarQHXyNpkOl1AAlsdX0C0nppcZlbnKh_Z5erEt5U5Hwsgftw0jnV_20spLhgTBYoCRsd5s3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40707502 40327430 39517416 38937483 38707660
39197709 40397687 40617627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 18:45:00

AWUS01 KWNH 081844
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0977
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Arklatex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081843Z - 090030Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates
continue across portions of the Arklatex region. Additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and radar data suggests
evidence of a slow-moving vort across the Arklatex region which
continues to interact with a very moist and unstable airmass for
redeveloping areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE
values across far northeast TX through northern LA and far
southern AR are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, with PWs of
generally 1.8 to 2.0 inches based on the latest RAP analysis.

This strongly favorable thermodynamic environment coupled with
small-scale vort dynamics and surface outflow boundary activity
should help to maintain a convective threat across the broader
Arklatex region over the next several hours.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with
the stronger storms given the level of moisture and instability
that is in place. While the shear is limited, these storms should
still have some localized organization along any outflow boundary
collisions. This coupled with slow cell-motions overall may allow
for some additional rainfal totals of 3 to 4+ inches to occur.

FFG values are quite high over the region, and therefore these
additional rains should generally favor an isolated and mainly
urban flash flood threat going through the afternoon and early
evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9XgyE-CzbGeOqG5BYwrUSp0MgxuriDDy1jOZzV3Q1O6zVRZu5gyA21PuSGIAXHTkVhjj9M65PyfakXTuGDN3k8q_rto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34119395 34039310 33889255 33589196 33249171
32689171 32249187 31969249 31929371 32129481
32539569 32939591 33479583 33859548 34029488

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 18:13:58

AWUS01 KWNH 081813
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0976
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081812Z - 090000Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will promote concerns for at least isolated
areas of flash flooding going through the afternoon and early
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
cloud tops across areas of northern MS, western TN and northwest
AL in association with developing clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. Additional activity is also noted farther east
across the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern TN. The activity
is initiating and expanding in coverage as a well-defined
mid-level vort center over eastern AR drifts east into a very
moist and unstable airmass pooled up across the broader Mid-South.
Farther east, there is also the influence from terrain and
differential heating boundaries.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2+ inches
are in place across the region. The strong boundary layer heating
with solar insolation will continue to help drive increasing
levels of instability over the next few hours, and this will
couple with the evolution of smaller-scale outflow boundary
activity for additional convection to develop and expand in
coverage. Local orographic ascent near areas of elevation will
also be a key player in driving more areas of convection.

The morning 12Z RAOB soundings from KLZK, KBNA and KBMX confirm
rather high WBZ heights and plenty of moisture extending through
the vertical column. This will support high efficiency with this
afternoon's convection with high rainfall rates that will be
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

The lack of effective bulk shear suggests the convective mode
should mainly be pulse in nature, but there may be enough outflow
boundary collisions and cold pool activity to facilitate some
loosely organized multi-cell convection. This coupled with slow
cell-motions and some cell-merger potential may help yield some
localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals over the next several
hours. This will drive a threat for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding, with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk
for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VZ7YQLm-IPvAN2vO8MiVW4I8hW0Uf--izJd1ZDx5jXrLL2cChBgz6jlFytWi6OQDzj3b3a67U2UeiBvZT2P7kqvZiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36988713 36978567 36768460 36218393 35368413
35138428 34648491 34238588 33788845 33059043
33159148 33609158 34919046 36019006 36558893

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 21:58:54

AWUS01 KWNH 082158
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-090345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0978
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northwest AZ...Southern NV...Southwest
UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082157Z - 090345Z

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for flash flooding will exist from
scattered areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms through
early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W satellite imagery, LightningCast,
and GREMLIN products show scattered areas of locally heavy showers
and thunderstorms impacting portions of southeast NV through
southwest UT and northwest/central AZ. New areas of convection are
expected to initiate and locally expand in coverage this afternoon
through early this evening as the full diurnal heating cycle plays
out.

Much of the activity will continue to be terrain-focused, but the
activity will increasingly move off areas of higher terrain over
the next few hours and propagate downwind into areas of stronger
boundary layer instability and also with potential for interacting
with multiple outflow boundaries.

SBCAPE values have reached locally as high as 1000 J/kg with the
continuation of strong boundary layer heating, and with areas of
terrain still enhancing some differential heating boundaries,
convection will still be capable of focusing along these mesoscale
features throughout the afternoon.

PWs are as high as 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across
areas of southern NV down into western AZ. These elevated PWs are
due to the deeper layer transport of monsoonal moisture around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge over the Southwest.

The model guidance is overall pretty modest with its QPF over the
next several hours, but with areas of deeper and sustainable cloud
top cooling seen, there will be concerns for locally heavy
rainfall. Slow cell-motions and the degree of moisture that is in
place may foster some rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour, but
this would be highly isolated in nature. The instability uptick
across areas of central and western AZ to the west of the Mogollon
Rim may facilitate the development or sustenance of westward
moving convection off the terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Some spotty
rainfall amounts may reach up to 2 inches going through early this
evening, and this may result in an isolated occurrence of some
flash flooding. The local burn scar and slot canyon areas will be
most susceptible to potential impacts along with the normally dry
washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_vLBcmIRYoGBWz-RH8uDA1daSe_vl4ihuRegqtxtpZnygjahDen6vYMZ5aol1WKbM7sMEBRqI907QdIOxMSMFhSRAdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40071466 39501390 38931273 39061190 38611130
37531144 36891148 36111145 35331121 34731077
34420995 33840972 33261013 33091109 33231233
33831331 34561379 35401404 36311432 36891480
37331621 37681691 38331739 39491723 39991621

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 22:49:54

AWUS01 KWNH 082249
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-090300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0979
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Southwest to Central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082248Z - 090300Z

SUMMARY...An isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat will
exist this evening. This will include the Raleigh-Durham
metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows some
cooling convective tops across areas of southwest to central NC in
association with a broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Surface data shows the activity focused along a well-defined and
convectively reinforced surface trough.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are pooled along this
boundary, and it is quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches in
place. This airmass combined with modest moisture convergence and
weakly divergent flow aloft may help to sustain the convective
threat at least into a portion of the evening time frame.

Some of the 18Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some locally heavy
rains with potential for 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates and
perhaps a few spotty 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals where some highly
localized cell-training takes place. As the aforementioned
instability pool is exhausted, the convection should weaken later
this evening, but at least for a few hours this evening, there
will be an isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat. This will
include areas near and west of the Raleigh-Durham metropolitan
area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-fLhsvz83JM_uZiw5uFWNWi8XZarFjiV8DZPoXe7mqiOkjZ6ySMm5S2Zd6tz8mNTxvWFtPZwGyRaKeq6wjDIwxAtYF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36307857 36287803 36067782 35767794 35457839
35247907 35117997 35028082 35038159 35088199
35248218 35448209 35608168 35808087 36028002
36187929

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 00:19:36

AWUS01 KWNH 090019
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0980
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Sierra Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090017Z - 090400Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally anchored thunderstorms over the
Sierra Nevada may persist for a few more hours. This will maintain
at least a localized flash flood threat over sensitive sloped
terrain and possibly burn scars.

DISCUSSION...Relatively anomalous monsoonal moisture pooling along
the crest of the Sierra Nevada working in tandem with the diurnal
heating cycle and orographic ascent has led to the development of
slow-moving thunderstorms over the higher terrain.

Radar and satellite imagery shows some of these cells becoming
quite focused over the higher terrain of Alpine and Mono Counties
in particular, and these cells may tend to persist locally for
another couple of hours. Terrain-driven circulations related to
the differential heating boundaries are the primary driver of some
of these cell-anchored storms, and with the moisture profiles that
are in place, some additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2+ inches
will be possible. This is being aided by pockets of MUCAPE around
500 to 1000+ J/kg.

Additional areas of small-scale flash flooding will be possible
which may include burn scar locations and also the more sensitive
sloped terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_8fCO4U4NO_mrTi4Lh2BX7DjLGTSKP68zDwdyZVDB6qtJmoNBR_drIDqjiQRbwlRt3EC1bSldH46BotMR2SBlteWoIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...REV...STO...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38861998 38821971 38601935 38181892 37571847
36871819 36421814 36321861 37041903 37661950
38272013 38702031

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 02:09:44

AWUS01 KWNH 090209
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-090700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0981
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley and Northern
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090207Z - 090700Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of thunderstorms with some
cell-training concerns may result in at least some isolated areas
of flash flooding going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows some clusters of convection tending to expand in
coverage across areas of central to northeast OH, western PA, and
into southwest NY. The activity is focusing along and ahead of a
cold front dropping southeast across the region as an upper-level
trough and corridor of upper-level jet energy transits the Great
Lakes region.

MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are pooled up across these
areas along with an axis of 1.75+ inch PWs. This coupled with
broadly divergent flow aloft and a belt of stronger shear will
help to drive potentially some additional expansion of convection
over the next few hours.

Some localized cell-training will be possible with some of the
swaths of convection over the next few hours, and with rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour expected with the stronger storms,
there may be some spotty areas of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals.

FFG values are generally rather low across the Upper OH Valley and
adjacent areas of the northern Mid-Atlantic, so these corridors of thunderstorms going into portions of the overnight period may
result in at least some isolated areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5SUEI4qKpizBZEs4hsioO9rBqd9R_rpnJ65ZepWge4Xx1GZAaMrp8K7cVJjzg4_jeVo4dLTF8kc8TJDliHx9P37RftQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43137656 42887538 42377495 41487560 40177808
39297925 38408038 38028153 38188276 38788355
39408350 40478261 41438108 41898000 42287907
42677815 42957755

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 05:38:08

AWUS01 KWNH 090537
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-091130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0982
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...South Dakota through Southern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090534Z - 091130Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage during the next several hours and train across eastern
South Dakota into Minnesota. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr are likely,
which through training could produce 2-4+" of rain. Flash flooding
is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows a slow
expansion of slow moving thunderstorms near the SD/ND border, with
additional scattered thunderstorms farther east into MN. This
activity is blossoming in response to a strengthening LLJ emerging
from NE, now being measured via regional VWPs as high as 40-55
kts. The S/SW orientation of this LLJ is drawing impressive
thermodynamics northward as reflected by GPS measured PWs of 1.3
to 1.5 inches, around the 90th percentile for the date,
overlapping a ribbon of extreme MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. A weak
shortwave digging out of ND to interact with this LLJ in a region
of modest mid-level thickness diffluence is additionally enhancing
ascent, and it is likely activity is on the precipice of rapid
expansion as reflected by a steady increase in LightningCast
probabilities over the Dakotas/Minnesota.

The HRRR is initializing poorly tonight, but some of the high-res
CAMs including the RRFS have at least some semblance of the
current activity to help with the progged evolution. As the LLJ
continues to ramp up and surge northward, it will sharpen both the
convergence axis and the resulting CAPE gradient to cause what
should be a NW to SE arcing line of thunderstorms through the
overnight. Mean 0-6km winds from the west (and region of more
impressive thermodynamics) combined with Corfidi vectors aligned
to the LLJ nose suggest upstream development will occur, leading
to training as cells move repeatedly to the southeast. With
rainfall rates potentially eclipsing 2"/hr at times (10-20% chance
from the REFS), this could lean to a corridor of 2-4" of rainfall
with locally higher amounts possible.

7-day rainfall across this region has been below normal with just
a few exceptions in southern MN. This has allowed 3-hr FFG to
recover to 2-2.5 inches, for which REFS exceedance probabilities
peak around 30%. This suggests that despite the relatively dry
antecedent conditions, the training of these intense rain rates
could still overwhelm the soils, leading to instances of flash
flooding through the overnight and into the early morning hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4_6znjrjbKM8d-4FNIVmr_DCwj7NROZaYykGtBqeWnrsuDCSy5NzmrlhYeRWroTxbwYWRoAXpREu6yM1FgE-Gnesm68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46320040 46259856 45799544 45689527 45179369
44449288 43869327 43749360 43519477 43609623
44319834 45320019 45900106 46210108

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 07:26:48

AWUS01 KWNH 090726
FFGMPD
MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-091300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0983
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Iowa, eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090724Z - 091300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across western Iowa overnight with a slow advance eastward through
morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-3" of
rain with locally higher amounts. This may result in flash
flooding.

Discussion...During the past few hours, the regional radar mosaic
has shown a slow but steady expansion of thunderstorms across
western Iowa. This activity is blossoming along the eastern edge
of the intense 850mb LLJ centered over Nebraska (measured via VWPs
to above 50 kts). Veering winds between 850-700mb is helping to
transport the accompanying robust thermodynamics over Nebraska
eastward, and the resulting convergence on the edge of the +12C
700mb is leading to regenerating thunderstorms within the
associated WAA.

Hourly rainfall measured via MRMS has been generally 0.75 to 1.25
inches within the more intense cells. However, the coverage of
these higher rain rates has begun to expand, suggesting the flash
flood risk is increasing. As the core of the LLJ moves slowly
eastward, the accompanying veered flow should push MUCAPE to above
2000 J/kg coincident with a PW plume of 1.7 to 1.8 inches. This
will support expanding convection with rain rates peaking at
1-2"/hr as suggested by HREF and REFS probabilities reaching
20-30% for 1"/hr, despite the poor initialization of many of the
high-res CAMs this morning.

The persistent WAA should generally push the convection eastward
with time in response to the translation of warming mid-level
temperatures. However, this will promote at least a short duration
of backbuilding convection with storms developing upstream near
the Nebraska/Iowa border and then translating E/SE at 10-20 kts.
Where any repeating/backbuilding storms can occur, 2-3" of rain is
possible with locally higher amounts.

Soil moisture across the region is generally normal to slightly
below normal according to NASA SPoRT. However, recent 7-day
rainfall that has been as much as 400% of normal over southern
Iowa/northern Missouri has reduced 3-hr FFG to around 2 inches.
While any backbuilding of these intense rain rates could lead to
instances of flash flooding, the greatest risk appears to be over
southern Iowa, southeast Nebraska, and northern Missouri, where
antecedent conditions make the area a bit more vulnerable to
runoff and flash flooding impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IugpsI26kqmniRe3xoazHTaFD0rWW4-id1fNTH6IZeGbxwtPAMhRwnCE056XnoaCWlUNf-fVxLPHsMSCTgCNS9EDJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...MPX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43689409 42569284 41219275 40269323 39899455
40059579 40489622 40979631 41729636 42269648
42409647 43689665

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 14:24:00

AWUS01 KWNH 091423
FFGMPD
WIZ000-091922-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0984
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1022 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...central into southeastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091422Z - 091922Z

Summary...A mature convective complex near Wisconsin Dells was
migrating southeastward while producing heavy rainfall. Flash
flood potential will increase once this complex reaches
urban/sensitive areas of southeastern Wisconsin over the next 2-4
hours (though 18Z/1p central).

Discussion...Areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates were noted with a
convective complex currently near the Wisconsin Dells/Portage
areas (per MRMS). The complex was migrating southeastward at a
decent pace (around 30 knots) but was exhibiting both
forward-propagation and local mergers, enhancing rain rates on a
localized basis. FFG thresholds in the immediate vicinity of the
complex were in the 2-2.5 inch/hr range, suggesting
isolated/localized flash flood potential in the short term.

Storms are moving east-southeastward along a warm front currently.
Their trajectory will result in heavy rainfall approaching more
urbanized areas of southeastern WI (Milwaukee and vicinity) over
the next 2-4 hours, and should the orientation/organization of the
complex remain during this timeframe, an increase in local flash
flood potential will exist. Downstream PW values of 1.5+ inches
and instability (around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along/south of the warm
front) will continue to support heavy rainfall. Furthermore, FFG
thresholds decrease to around 1 inch/hr with southeastward extent,
which has potential for exceedance as the complex migrates through
the region. Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis -
particularly in low-lying/urban/sensitive areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7NEAW2tNbIpzQr9N9IxL8Z0vh-H-pxz561SHDiVzbyKC0mOoi-mEeBk3DVB70LtShTWNjl29oKNdwVrZHfkYSo0SVxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44168841 43928748 42868741 42508819 42718965
43419017 44158929

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 18:01:54

AWUS01 KWNH 091801
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-100000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0986
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the TN Valley and Southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091800Z - 100000Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates will pose a threat for localized flash flooding.
Some sensitive sloped terrain and the more urbanized locations
will be at greatest risk for impacts this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking place
across central to northeast AL up through northern GA, eastern TN
and adjacent areas of the southern Appalachians.

The convection is developing in an unstable and moisture-rich
environment with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWs of
1.75 to 2.0 inches. This thermodynamic environment coupled with
modest orographic ascent over the Cumberland Plateau and adjacent
southern Appalachians will foster an uptick in the coverage of
rather slow-moving and locally terrain-anchored showers and
thunderstorms going through the afternoon hours. Some very weak
ascent also around the eastern flanks of vort energy over the
Mid-South may provide some additional support for convection, but
largely the convective threat today is being driven by orographic
ascent and differential heating boundaries. In time, some outflow
boundary collisions will favor additional convective development.

Rainfall rates with the stronger and more focused cells will be
capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. The latest consensus
of HREF and REFS data suggest some localized 3 to 4 inch rainfall
totals will be possible. This would likely be sufficient to drive
a localized threat for some flash flooding, including some of the
more sensitive sloped terrain and urban corridors where runoff
would be more enhanced.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4NZQ5kYtwgqq8dMuvNz0N2RXVfc6JeAcOH-c2kLY0gSIb5UGbAPei1CSS9jTHJpYVDns8ahF4fD3awiz6hI_we8WR5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36888067 36658033 36018089 34998206 34228338
33128504 32968617 33358661 34368641 35158583
36208532 36678463 36378330 36478234 36878123

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 17:32:50

AWUS01 KWNH 091732
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-092030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0985
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois, northwestern
Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091730Z - 092030Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible through 2030Z/3:30p
central.

Discussion...An earlier, mature MCS has migrated southeastward
primarily across WI and the border region between WI and IL over
the past several hours. Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts
more focused development on the southwestern flank of this mature
MCS extending from near Waukegan to near Rochelle. These storms
were progressive owing to 25 kt mean flow aloft, although 1.7 inch
PW and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE was enabling local rain rates to reach 1
inch/hr as storms mature. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough
over central IL was also likely aiding in convective development
in tandem with southward surging outflow from far southern WI into
the discussion area.

The overall result of this evolving mesoscale pattern is localized
areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates that should affect populated/urban
areas of northeastern IL into northwestern IN over at least the
next 3 hours (through 2030Z). The combination of urban surfaces
and FFG thresholds near 1 inch/hr should support at least a
localized risk of flash flood impacts 1) as storms mature and 2)
near any local mergers that may occur.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4VSpA_p2Ff5VFtkwou4F7OdcXk6jwzBWep2xkBu15gqS6Vr_mwjuQEvXFfYG2CHkS5TtDPN8cRt3JZLoOO0Cd7zxg90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42458819 42218739 41848680 41418662 41118692
41098803 41488910 41838910 42368876

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 18:32:00

AWUS01 KWNH 091831
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-100015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0987
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast GA...Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091829Z - 100015Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with locally extreme rainfall
rates may cause some areas of especially urban flash flooding this
afternoon and early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Cooling convective tops are seen across areas of
southeast GA and far northeast FL as sea breeze convergence
gradually attempts to push inland where interacting with a very
moist and unstable airmass. MLCAPE values have increased to over
3000 J/kg in a corridor just inland of the coast to the west of
Brunswick and down to the northwest of Jacksonville.

LightningCast data shows high probabilities (over 70 percent) of
CI taking place to the west and southwest of the current activity
over the next 60 minutes, and visible satellite images show an
increasingly agitated CU/TCU field more broadly across southeast
GA and northeast FL, so the overall convective footprint should
expand in coverage over the next few hours.

PWs are very high and reflective of a deeply tropical environment
with values around 2.25 inches, and this coupled with the
instability will favor extreme rainfall rates. Some rainfall rates
of 2 to 3 inches/hour are expected, and with weak steering
currents driving slow cell-motions, some spotty 3 to 5 inch
rainfall amounts will be possible.

This is supported by a consensus of the 12Z HREF/REFS solutions
which also show some 20 to 40 percent probabilities of seeing the
3-hour FFG being exceeded. As a result, some areas of mainly urban
flash flooding will be possible over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ILHxJGeWDCzkBnl4ve3TyIfbdRP0R4jzOrk32T4tog6bk5K1heO4lcSkwkdBN8lHFjVZCxWY1dUmPxcxJSO1h08Mxw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32218158 31948097 31248108 30668128 29888134
29768217 30198298 30618330 31108336 31548314
32038240

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 20:40:14

AWUS01 KWNH 092039
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-100235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0988
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Northern IN...Southern Lower
MI...Northwest OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092038Z - 100235Z

SUMMARY...A strong MCS advancing across portions of the Midwest
will continue to foster a threat for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a generally progressive MCS advancing across portions
of far northeast IL through far northwest IN and into southwest
Lower MI. This convective line is generally focused in close
proximity to a warm front attempting to lift off to the northeast
out ahead of a shortwave trough and associated low center crossing
through northern IL.

Very unstable and moist air is situated across the warm sector to
the south of this front with MLCAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/kg
pooled up across north-central IL through northwest IN. Surface
dewpoints in the mid 70s are contributing to these high CAPE
values, and fostering PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches.

Given the elevated shear values (~30 to 40 kts) in conjunction
with strong thermodynamics, the ongoing MCS is likely to be
sustainable with a motion off to the east or east-southeast over
the next few hours. Convergence along the warm front along with
isentropic ascent will play a role in maintaining the convective
threat as the MCS moves across northern IN, southern Lower MI and
eventually northwest OH.

The southwest tail of the MCS is an area where some cell-training
concerns may occur to the extent of fostering some flash flood
risk. Also, with a cold pool established across parts of northern
IL in the wake of this MCS, the upstream advance of very
moist/unstable low-level southwest flow over top of it may result
in there being some regeneration of elevated convection. Radar and
satellite imagery is already hinting at some of this.

Considerable uncertainty exists this evening with the convective
threat over northern IL and northern IN as there may be an
opportunity for regenerating rounds of convection, but at least
for the near-term, some rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour will
be possible with the main MCS, with some spotty 2 to 3+ inch
amounts where any cell-training sets up.

At least isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through
early this evening, with most of the threat confined to the more
sensitive urban areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AHtXxzym7S8NI_athLYKrRd25g_n3qnA9pDIQSjHWeMXGju1WVeise6CXOyfpZYYYtlYyZ71EAIum8rTJ2lE0lgefw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...
LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42568919 42328801 42248719 42218625 42448536
42398422 42058330 41358293 40778325 40468446
40518620 40658777 41048916 41689008 42419030

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 21:59:26

AWUS01 KWNH 092159
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0990
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092157Z - 100330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening across portions of the Mid-South which will maintain a
concern for additional pockets of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of relatively slow-moving showers
and thunderstorms are seen impacting areas of central to northwest
AL and also adjacent areas of northeast MS and middle TN.

There are still areas of northern AL and parts of middle TN that
have a substantial pool of boundary layer instability in place
with MLCAPE values of around 2500 J/kg. Meanwhile, outflow
boundaries are seen slowly advancing out from the existing areas
of convection across the region.

Over the next few hours, some outflow boundary collisions are
expected which will drive a threat for expanding and regenerating
clusters of convection over the region. Northern AL in particular
appears to be at risk for seeing the best potential for this based
on the latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery trends.

Given the instability and high PW environment, with PWs of 2.0 to
2.2 inches, the rainfall rate potential will be very high and
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour. Slow cell-motions and
potential for a few cell-mergers may allow for some spotty 3 to 4
inch rainfall amounts going through this evening.

Already there have been a couple of flash flood warnings that have
come out across central and northwest AL, and some additional
flash flooding concerns will exist going into the evening hours as
the convective threat continues.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!95y6SJ4NF_1U1AOl_wju3-skkGyQRyLShg91b78Zz1Qi0_-i19Zu2geTl5fur8t74cBmjv3TZ5SlRlwFeoOZIjHpiM8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35638690 35618629 35378566 34778551 34168589
33288675 32908765 32978853 33408879 34308822
35238781

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 21:34:16

AWUS01 KWNH 092134
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-100330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0989
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092132Z - 100330Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will tend
to increase a bit further in coverage this evening. Isolated areas
of flash flooding will be possible with locally heavy rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2+ inches.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite along with the
GREMLIN product shows scattered areas of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms tending to further increase in coverage across areas
of west-central NM into eastern AZ, with additional areas of focus
noted up across some of the higher terrain of northwest AZ (near
the Mogollon Rim), southeast NV, and southwest to south-central UT.

Strong diurnal heating has led to SBCAPE values of as much as 1000
to 2000 J/kg across sizable areas of central and southern AZ with
nose of this extending up into northwest AZ and southwest UT. This
corridor of greater instability will tend to be where some of the
better convective focus will be over the next several hours in
conjunction with orographic ascent and differential heating
boundaries.

Some convection over the Mogollon Rim is expected to advance
westward off the terrain and out into this more unstable airmass
that is pooling across the region, and some of the hires models
suggest areas of central AZ may see some of the heaviest rainfall
potential this evening. PW anomalies of 1 to 1.5 standard
deviations above normal area noted across some of these areas with
the fetch of better low to mid-level monsoonal moisture seen
lifting north around the west side of the subtropical ridge over
the Southwest.

A highly isolated threat for flash flooding will exist into the
evening hours from the thunderstorms which will have the potential
to drop 1 inch of rain in as little as 30 minutes. Generally the
totals will be 1 to 2 inches, with a couple of spotty 2+ inch
amounts possible where the stronger storms focus. This may result
in some arroyo flash flooding, and some of the regional burn scar
locations and sensitive slot canyon locations may also potentially
see impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6R8MqZMI--W_-0M7BoRUzTavHXbL9lAUaexgGYf6sm4LXxuLo4Jdg0KyjV-U-XjklCwBJtrREwQFlWWfO90DE8TZGkw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PSR...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39171180 38951097 38251053 36181106 35131087
34671034 34320941 34220843 33930777 33680764
33180769 32460871 31610942 31301013 31341152
31841289 32581332 33671350 34631399 35321467
36141570 36981596 37811545 38661409 39091249

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 02:33:48

AWUS01 KWNH 100233
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-100700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0991
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1032 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern Illinois, far Southwest Michigan,
Northern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100231Z - 100700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this evening
and then expand while training to the east-southeast. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-4+" of rainfall in the
next few hours. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows new
thunderstorm development occurring across far NW Illinois. This
activity is blossoming downstream of a modest shortwave rippling
southeast within broadly cyclonic mid-level flow. This is
producing subtle backing of the low-level wind field to
isentropically ascend a stationary front analyzed by WPC draped
west-to-east from Iowa into Ohio. 850mb winds have increased to
20-30 kts as measured via regional VWPs, helping to transport
impressive thermodynamics northward due to PWs approaching 2" and
MLCAPE of 4000 J/kg pooling along the front. This is supporting
hourly rainfall that has already exceeded 1" according to MRMS
within this new activity.

The ingredients are extremely supportive for heavy rainfall into
tonight, but the CAMs are struggling to identify a focus for the
footprint. As the shortwave drops steadily E/SE it will help to
accelerate the inflow to produce even more intense thermodynamic
advection northward. Locally enhanced ascent downstream of this
shortwave should interact broadly with the front to create strong
lift to regenerate convection. The mean 0-6km winds aligned
parallel to the front indicate a high potential for
backbuilding/training, with a southeast motion eventually
developing as Corfidi vectors become aligned NW to SE to dive into
the moisture in reponse to the veering LLJ. The last two runs of
the HRRR have finally started to exhibit a reasonable QPF
footprint, getting closer to the ARW/CONEST/RRFS which, while not
perfect, appear to match better the conceptual model for tonight's
evolution. This is concerning because several of the deterministic
models suggest locally 5-6" of rain in the next 6 hours, and
although confidence in these amounts by 08Z are limited, it does
outline the higher-end potential for the area tonight.

Parts of this area, generally along and north of I-90, have
received 1-3" of rain already today, priming the soils ahead of
the event tonight. 3-hr FFG is generally 2 inches across the
region, but locally is as low as 1-1.5", for which the HREF and
REFS both indicate a 20-30% chance of exceedance, and this is
despite significant spread in the individual ensemble members.
Still, this is enough support to suggest at least possible flash
flooding the next few hours. However, as this event unfolds,
additional MPDs will likely be needed to capture the evolving, and
potentially increasing, flash flood risk overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!77rguL3N0y6NjR4V8ywosbfi4E2aVKKEYtVzgzUuwj1nEI2CXclhqr0Q_KvjSTe0Rxweb0F28SfV9n8DRKzCipSQJCo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42408838 42198620 41838521 41378456 41008441
40528473 40158558 39968688 40078820 41019012
42399059

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 03:34:54

AWUS01 KWNH 100334
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0992
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100330Z - 100800Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to progress
westward across southern Arizona the next few hours. Hourly
rainfall of 0.75 to 1.25 inches is possible, leading to isolated
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...GOES-E IR satellite imagery this evening indicates
that cloud tops are continuing to rapidly cool across southern
Arizona. This cloud top cooling is associated with deepening
thunderstorms moving steadily east to west across the region. At
500mb, a shortwave trough is noted pushing west beneath the
monsoon ridge, driving locally enhanced forcing for ascent. This
lift, combined with surface convergence along boundary collisions
and storm mergers from the ongoing convection is producing renewed
thunderstorm activity thanks to impressive thermodynamics
characterized by PWs as high as 1.6 inches and MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/kg.

Recent MRMS hourly rainfall has been above 1 inch in a few of the
deeper convective cores, and despite limited signal in the HREF
neighborhood probabilities (just 5-15%), the ingredients suggest
these rates can continue for a few more hours. This is supported,
at least, by recent UA WRF and sub-hourly HRRR guidance as well.
As the shortwave pushes steadily to the west, it will impinge upon thermodynamics that may additionally improve due to persistent
inflow off the Gulf of California. The overlap of the approaching
shortwave with an even more moist column suggests rainfall rates
of 0.75-1.25"/hr are likely. Limiting the total rain from this
convection is the speed at which these storms should move, as
propagation vectors are to the west at 20-25 kts, but any
collisions or redevelopment immediately downstream of the
mid-level wave could cause locally slower storm motions, or
repeating events. Where this occurs, 1-2" of rain is possible in
isolated locations.

In general, the modest storm coverage combined with steady storm
motions should preclude widespread flash flooding tonight.
However, any of these intense rain rates that move over vulnerable
terrain features like dry washes or burn scars, could lead to
flash flooding impacts before activity wanes later tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_GIeXgc9DWEhdk3silp_9Dm-RcP_GGwaOEiFCYf5pHd8EVfehAbocjQeSMprYtJ_4yQuZak5ItYt3Wpj6BLaxfKzKDA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33881303 33541207 32961106 32811080 32090998
31731017 31461103 31371180 31781312 32391484
33411461 33861410

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 06:14:46

AWUS01 KWNH 100614
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-101130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0993
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas, Northern Missouri, Far Southern
Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100612Z - 101130Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms moving along a stationary
front will bring 1-2"/hr rain rates through the overnight. Total
rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts may cause flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows clusters of
thunderstorms expanding near the intersection of Nebraska, Kansas,
and Missouri. This activity is building along a stationary front
analyzed by WPC, into which a strengthening LLJ of 40-50 kts
measured via regional VWPs is supplying impressive moisture and
instability to sustain convection. Recent GPS measurements
indicate PWs have climbed to 1.4 to 1.7 inches, collocated with
pooled MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in the vicinity of the boundary. A
modest shortwave tracking east from Nebraska has helped develop a
wave of low pressure along this boundary, with these coupled
features driving additionally enhanced ascent to support
thunderstorms.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with this activity tonight. There
is very little support from any of the CAMs to suggest the ongoing
activity will continue (as most do not have the current
development at all). This creates lower than typical confidence in
the forecast. However, with the LLJ progged to continue to surge
to the NE at 40-50 kts until diurnal veering, convection should be
sustained for many hours. Thunderstorms which develop along the
convergent nose of this LLJ should generally organize into
clusters on 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear, with cells
generally tracking to the south as reflected by Corfidi vectors.
However, with redevelopment upstream likely, and mean 0-6km winds
pointing to the east, this suggests the potential for repeating
rounds of convection, through which 1-2"/hr rain rates could cause
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

This area has received impressive rainfall the past 7 days,
reflected by AHPS showing 300-400% of normal rainfall. This has
lowered the 1-hr (3-hr) FFG to just 1.5 (2.5) inches, indicating
the area is vulnerable to these intense rain rates. Despite
minimal model support, the ingredients suggest the environment is
supportive of rainfall exceeding this FFG, leading to isolated
instances of flash flooding into the early morning hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7VyQgUTyI34wD7UhuWhuWksjpJ2JYxiP5vEV77NbGJZzZj28VobDY46QJInMoqSrdAiJCXUjrQjCYtsQvlKS19DvlHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40789422 40629275 39889185 39019164 38609205
38299295 38349373 38479460 38869544 39429598
40209618 40679544

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 06:54:50

AWUS01 KWNH 100654
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-101230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0994
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100651Z - 101230Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with hourly rainfall as high as 2.5" will
continue to spread across the lower Great Lakes into the early
morning. Where any repeating/training can occur, total rainfall of
3-5" is possible. This may result in additional flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery early this morning shows an
impressive MCS with a large area of -50C or colder cloud tops
moving over northeast Illinois and into Indiana/Michigan. Embedded
even colder cloud tops are indicative of still deepening
convection, which is additionally reflected by the regional radar
mosaic featuring many clusters of thunderstorms moving across the
area.

This activity is building within an area of strong overlapping
deep layer ascent caused via a mid-level shortwave moving atop a
stationary front and isentropic upglide on a 30-40kt 850mb LLJ.
This LLJ is gradually strengthening as noted via regional VWPs,
and is transporting robust thermodynamics (PWs above 2" and MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg) northeastward. The deep layer lift impinging
into these thermodynamics will continue to fuel convective
development, and recent MRMS hourly rainfall has already exceeded
2 inches in the strongest cores.

There is high confidence that thunderstorms will continue into the
morning, although the footprint of heaviest rainfall continues to
be somewhat uncertain. The high-res CAMs are all in agreement that
stripes of heavy rainfall will occur both just north of the front
where an MCV tracking across Lake Michigan will locally accelerate
inflow to enhance the isentropic upglide, as well from northeast
Illinois into northwest Indiana where the most impressive moisture
flux occurs on the LLJ convergence. With rainfall rates climbing
above 2"/hr within the deeper convection, any repeating cells or
training of heavy rain could create 3-5" of rain with locally
higher amounts (5-10% chance for more than 5 inches according to
both HREF and REFS).

There is a slightly higher risk of the heaviest rain occurring
across IL/IN than in lower MI due to a higher training potential,
but much of this region is already vulnerable from recent heavy
rainfall and compromised FFG. While there continues to be some
uncertainty as to whether the additional heavy rain can
efficiently overlap recent rain footprints (and accompanying
reduced FFG) anywhere these intense rain rates can train or
repeat, a flash flood risk will exist.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9yu8_EXu4Xev9kiDBcoAiz8XUu3zzG-G_e5CtRjgaoStnMACvh9e5rCxJBHzFmHyWUu3UiAVHNVBhTu27ljygE2L0aM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43388619 43288462 42328374 41248414 40558499
40388538 40188600 40338745 40728868 41338920
42388859 43078784

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 15:37:38

AWUS01 KWNH 101537
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-102000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0995
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Western PA...Much of Western & Northern
WV...Southern Half of OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101535Z - 102000Z

SUMMARY...Efficient but fast moving convection into western slopes
of Appalachians possible to exceed hourly FFG (1-1.5"/hr), while
flanking line likely to see redevelopment that may repeat across
areas of slightly higher FFG, but with localized totals of 3-4"
possible, flash flooding becomes possible here as well.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows a
mature but compact MCS across NE PA nearing SW NY with a broad
northwesterly flow around the SW quadrant is is providing strong
moisture convergence through the Upper Ohio River Valley.
Enhanced moisture has streamed ahead of the wave through the
Valley bringing upper 60s to low 70s Tds even into the higher
western slopes/ridges and with some early morning sun, temps are
nearing low 80s and supporting SBCAPEs of 2000-2500+ J/kg. The
deep layer moisture pooled through the valley is also above normal
with total through depth around 1.75" though with most in the
lowest levels where convergence is maximized; loading is
supporting efficient rainfall production. Upstream observations
note .75-1.25" totals in 30 to 60 minutes and with continued
cooling trends/overshooting tops with broadening reflectivity,
expect similar 1-1.5" in the 30-60 minute time period across W PA
and western WV over the next hour or so. FFG values in the area
are 1-1.5" with 3hr FFG less than 2", suggesting the rates in
steep terrain may result in scattered incidents of flash flooding.

Upstream across SW, central and southern Ohio; there is a strong
cluster with elongated orientation to the mean flow from Licking
to Logan county, currently... this will start to intersect with
the south-end convection of the main convergence line over
Licking/Perry county, which could induce localized issues, though
FFG is naturally slightly higher across the area closer to
2"+/3hrs... which is about where observations plus hourly totals
will near but maybe not exceed initially. However, VWP through
the region shows highly confluent flow through depth along the
upwind flanking end; combine this with the area starting to move
into a broadening 500-1000mb thickness trough, supports
propagation vectors to reduce to less than 5kts with some
convergence along the upwind edge in SW OH. So with increasingly
unstable air upstream across IND and N KY with southwesterly
inflow orthogonal to the training line (near surface) but veering
confluent inflow aloft is highly suggestive of favorable
backbuilding and then NW to SSE (note turning) training
convection. Total PWats are slightly higher and instability will
further build into the 3000 J/kg increasing vertical strength/low
level moisture flux convergence into the updrafts with rates
increasing to near/locally above 2"/hr. Ideal training will
result in 3-4" totals which would even exceed 3 & 6 hr FFG.

However, there is high uncertainty within the evolution of this
cluster and then new additional development later this morning
into the afternoon. Some suggest the storms would not even exist
now; and therefore would further delay development (due to
capping) and new cells would develop further north and east
(HRRR/FV3/RRFS). Others suggest strong inflow orthogonal to the
outflow boundary and stronger cold pools will propagate the line
further southwest perhaps into SE IND/N KY (ARW2/NamNest). At
this time, the most conservative, middle ground solution is the
12z ARW which also has flaws compared to current RADAR/Satellite
trends but also appears more reasonable than the most aggressive
solutions though the overall line appears to be weakening relative
to the ARW solutions too.

Bottom line, there is solid potential but confidence is low for
the upstream area for prolonged training and may need to update
the MPD as trends unfold and confidence increases; however, the
rainfall efficiency/short-term rates have much higher confidence
for localized flash flooding issues across the western slopes of
the Appalachians in the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_I8sE_xMOAPdhTP1MdMSmuTcspb2uxyDrFsS12anmS3ZR8-XFFcFFEtxgbO5gP7c9hEIU6ADlX7FcIUX_W_2BmO7QQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41077989 41077920 40567874 39847921 39007980
38448052 38178159 38288252 38768366 39308436
39898470 40388459 40568404 40478343 40198275
39978172 40388095 40788036

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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