Forum: KrAABy Gamer BBS

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 05:42:02

ACUS02 KWNS 280541
SWODY2
SPC AC 280539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds
appear possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern
Georgia and northern Florida. Isolated severe storms capable of
severe wind gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High
Plains Wednesday afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the Mid-Atlantic with
associated troughing extending south along the Atlantic Coast. Some
mid-level flow enhancement is forecast across the Carolinas into GA
Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with a weak disturbance moving
through the base of the trough. Elsewhere, an upper high will remain
anchored over the southern Rockies with a series of perturbations
rotating through the western into northern periphery of that
feature.

At the surface, a cool front will settle south into the southeast
Atlantic coastal areas and central and eastern Gulf states by
afternoon with the boundary extending northwest into the central
Plains. Farther west, a lee cyclone is forecast to deepen over the
northern High Plains with an associated lee trough extending into
the central High Plains.

...Southeast...

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s coupled with dewpoints in the
70s are expected to yield a strongly unstable, prefrontal air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE up to 3000-4000 J/kg. The glancing
influence of the mid-level wave passing to the immediate north will
combine with modest frontal convergence to foster scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon from central and southern AL into
southern GA and northern FL. While the strongest deep-layer shear is
expected to remain across the post-frontal air mass, a modest
increase in mid-level flow will overspread the frontal zone. That,
along with the strong buoyancy, high precipitable water content, and
steepening low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging wet microbursts, especially if some cold pool organization can occur.

...Northern High Plains...

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and resultant moderate instability
(e.g., MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) are forecast by afternoon to the
east of the surface low and lee trough. Strong daytime heating and
the approach of a weak mid-level disturbance from the west are
expected to erode the cap, allowing for widely scattered storm
development from late afternoon into evening. Model soundings
indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, which suggests the potential for high-based,
transient supercell structures with an associated risk for localized
severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. There is some model
signal for a potentially greater severe wind gust threat developing
over western into central ND Wednesday evening. Should that signal
persist, an upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be required.

...Southern New England...

A zone of enhanced low-level shear is forecast to develop to the
immediate east of the deep-layer cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday. Clouds and precipitation are expected to limit air mass destabilization within the zone of stronger shear, which should
preclude a severe weather threat. However, if later model runs
indicate stronger instability than is currently forecast, low severe
weather probabilities may be required.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 05:44:12

ACUS02 KWNS 290543
SWODY2
SPC AC 290542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences
of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High
Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains,
the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Plains Thursday
morning will translate into the upper Midwest, while a trailing
disturbance moves through the mid MO Valley. Some enhancement of the
mid-level flow is forecast with the secondary system over the
central Plains. In the low levels, a surface low is expected to
track from SD into MN, along a cool front moving through the upper
MS Valley and the northern Plains into the central Plains. A
secondary low is forecast to deepen along the front over central KS.

...Northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and the
central Plains...

Latest model guidance continues to indicate showers and
thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z Thursday across the northern Plains
into the mid MO Valley, within a zone of forcing for ascent
preceding the lead short-wave trough. A subset of that convection
may linger into afternoon with associated cloud cover limiting
daytime heating and resultant destabilization. Where stronger
heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low/mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the cool front and any
differential heating/outflow boundaries associated with previous
and/or active convection. A separate area of storms may also develop
later in the afternoon over eastern MT in the vicinity of a surface
low and lee trough. Damaging winds appear to be the primary hazard,
though isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.

A number of physics-based models and AI guidance indicate a corridor
from south-central SD into central or eastern NE as being a
preferred location for upscale growth of storms into a
cold-pool-driven MCS Thursday afternoon into evening, which would
enhance the damaging-wind potential. That scenario appears plausible
as the consensus of model guidance depicts that zone as having the
most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and modest
vertical shear. Given these considerations, a 15% wind probability
contour and related level 2/Slight Risk have been included to
account for that potential.

Enhanced moisture transport and storm-relative inflow along a
nocturnal low-level jet are likely to sustain a complex of storms
with some damaging wind risk Thursday night, mainly over eastern KS
into the mid MO Valley.

...Raton Mesa vicinity...

Convergence along the southward-moving front and/or upslope in its
immediate wake are expected to foster isolated to widely scattered
storms by mid afternoon along the high terrain. While vertical will
remain relatively weak, the presence of a steep-lapse-rate
environment, featuring a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will
support the potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Central and eastern Gulf Coast...

Early-day thunderstorms are expected across portions of the far
northeast Gulf and central FL Peninsula. To the north of that
convection, model guidance indicates a corridor of moderate to
strong instability developing by afternoon in the vicinity of a
stalled front. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected within
that zone of stronger air mass destabilization with steepening
low-level lapse rates and high precipitable water content supportive
of locally damaging wet microbursts.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 05:57:46

ACUS02 KWNS 040557
SWODY2
SPC AC 040556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS...OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central
Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New
Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...MO...southern IA...central IL...
A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes
on Wednesday, with a weak surface trough roughly from northern MI
southwestward into northern MO. A plume of upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will exist from MO into IA and IL, supporting around 1500
J/kg MUCAPE. This, combined with around 35 kt deep shear should
support scattered strong to severe storms with mixed mode. Locally
damaging wind gusts are most likely as storms congeal and produce
outflow. A few of the initial cells may produce marginal hail.

...Northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles...
Storms should form over the high terrain of northeast NM after 20Z
with a modest northwest flow regime aloft. High pressure will exist
over the central Plains, but surface winds will back to easterly and
provide moisture into the region late in the day. Strong heating and
steep low-level lapse rates will foster strong wind gusts.

...Southeast AZ...
Westerly surface winds with 50s to near 60 F dewpoints and daytime
heating will support storms over the eastern Mogollon Rim / White
Mtns, with some west/southwest propagation possible. MUCAPE should
rise to at least 1500 J/kg, with PWAT near 1.25" supporting locally
strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 04:52:02

ACUS02 KWNS 020451
SWODY2
SPC AC 020450

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms are expected across
eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and a small part of
northeast South Dakota Monday afternoon into evening. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards. Isolated damaging
winds are possible from central and eastern South Dakota into
western Nebraska, in portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England,
and southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet
streaks initially over the northern Rockies Monday morning will
progress through the northern Plains and the upper MS Valley. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is expected to weaken while
developing from western SD into northwest ON, along a cold front
advancing through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. The
southern extension of the front will push into the central High
Plains, where it will link with a secondary cyclone over eastern CO.

Elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will progress through the
Northeast with a preceding belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds
overspreading that region. The associated surface low is expected to
track along the St. Lawrence Valley, while a trailing front moves
through the Mid-Atlantic and much of New England.

...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from central ND
into the ND-MN Red River Valley, within a zone of warm advection and
moisture transport at the terminus of a low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ
will persist through the day, aiding in air mass recovery in the
wake of the early-day storms. By afternoon, the combination of
daytime heating, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, and steep
lapse rates is expected to yield a moderately unstable, but capped
pre-frontal air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg.

Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid- to late
afternoon along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries
in eastern ND into northwest MN, where stronger dynamic forcing for
ascent should erode the cap. Vertically veering wind profiles with
40-50+ kt effective bulk shear will contribute to organized storm
modes, including supercells and bowing structures capable of large
hail and damaging winds. The presence of a 30-40 kt LLJ will lead to
sizable, clockwise-curved hodographs with 0-1 km SRH of 200-300
m2/s2 during the evening. However, the overall tornado threat
remains uncertain as forecast soundings indicate continued capping
within the inflow air mass, poor low-level lapse rates, and only a
small amount of 0-3 km CAPE.

Storm development farther south along the front in SD and NE remains
more uncertain due to capping concerns. Should storms develop, the
environment would support the potential for severe wind gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail.

...New England into the Mid-Atlantic...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England. Associated
clouds and precipitation are likely to linger into afternoon,
limiting air mass destabilization in some areas. However, where
stronger heating can occur, the presence of dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability
with MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg.

Aided by forcing for ascent attendant to the short-wave trough,
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon along and ahead of the front, namely in areas
that experience greater air mass destabilization. Steepening
low-level lapse rates and the presence of 35-45 kt of deep-layer
shear may support embedded bowing segments capable of damaging wind
gusts.

...Southeast Arizona...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon over the Gila Mountains as well as along favored terrain
nearer to the international border. A subsequent merging of the
separate regimes appears possible by late afternoon into evening.
The presence of a deep, well-mixed boundary layer with MLCAPE up to
1000-1500 J/kg suggests the potential for severe wind gusts,
especially if some cold pool organization can occur.

..Mead.. 08/02/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 17:26:40

ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA......

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms are expected across
eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and a small part of
northeast South Dakota Monday afternoon into evening. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards. Isolated damaging
winds are possible from central and eastern South Dakota into
western Nebraska, in portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England,
and southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid-level trough will move across the Northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest Monday, with a belt of
unseasonably strong west to southwesterly flow overspreading
portions of the Dakotas into northern/central Minnesota. At the
surface, a cold front will shift eastward from the northern to the
central Plains, with a surface low moving across the Dakotas and a
secondary low across eastern Colorado.

Across the Northeast, a second mid-level trough will bring enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow across the region. At the surface, a
warm front will lift northward across portions of New England with a
cold front advancing south and eastward as a surface low tracks into
Quebec.

...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...
Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the
period Monday morning across North Dakota into northern Minnesota.
These will pose some potential for large hail. Preceding morning
convection, steepening low to mid-level lapse rates along with
moistening with the strong southerly low-level jet should allow for
moderate to strong instability to redevelop by the afternoon.
Renewed thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the
cold front. Supercell wind profiles will be in place. Initially,
forecast soundings indicate lingering capping at the base of the
EML. This may erode through time but relatively warm 750-800 mb
levels may lead to fairly high LCLs, which may inhibit tornado
potential though large clockwise curved hodographs will be common.
The primary threats are expected to be large hail and damaging wind.

Capping at the base of an EML may remain further south, limiting
convection with southern extent into South Dakota and Nebraska.
Nonetheless, CAM guidance suggests signal for a few isolated
supercells to develop further south with potential for large hail
and damaging wind.

...New England into the Mid-Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
across the Mid-Atlantic and New England through much of the period.
Pockets of more focused daytime heating may result in moderate
instability by the afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent attendant
to the short-wave trough, thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the
front, namely in areas that experience greater air mass
destabilization. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the presence
of 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear may support embedded bowing segments
capable of damaging wind gusts.

...Southeast Arizona...
Easterly flow will favor thunderstorm development across the high
terrain in Southeast Arizona Monday. Widely scattered activity will
build across the high terrain and move into the lower valleys
through the afternoon and evening. A well mixed boundary layer,
moderate instability, and modest shear around 20-25 kts will support
potential for an organized cluster or two with potential to produce
damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 08/02/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 05:31:08

ACUS02 KWNS 030530
SWODY2
SPC AC 030529

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail appear possible in southeast Arizona, south-central
Colorado, and north-central and northeast New Mexico Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Locally damaging winds may occur with
stronger storms in the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...

A broad, cyclonic flow regime is forecast from the northern Rockies
into the Great Lakes, to the north of an elongating upper high over
the Lower CO Valley into the southern Rockies. Within that pattern,
there is a model signal that a low-amplitude disturbance and
associated mid-level wind maximum will move through the northern
Plains and mid MO Valley. Elsewhere, an upper low centered over the
southern Appalachians Tuesday morning is expected to weaken while
slowly shifting north-northwest.

At the surface, a front will move into the upper Great Lakes with
the boundary trailing southwest through the mid MO Valley into the
southern High Plains. A weak surface low may evolve along the front
over the mid or lower MO Valley Tuesday afternoon into evening.

...Southeast Arizona...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are anticipated by mid afternoon
along the Gila Mountains and high terrain nearer to the
international border within a moderately unstable environment with
MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. The presence of a deep, well-mixed
boundary layer will enhance evaporative cooling potential in the
sub-cloud layer with an associated risk for locally severe wind
gusts as storms advance southwest into the lower desert during the
late afternoon into evening. Some threat for marginally severe hail
may exist with the storms developing along the international border
owing to slightly stronger deep-layer shear.

...South-central Colorado and north-central and northeast New
Mexico...

A relatively small spatial corridor of modest instability and 30-35
kt of deep-layer shear is forecast to materialize in the lee of the
Sangre De Cristo Mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening. The
favored corridor extends from where the surface front intersects the
high terrain northward within the immediate post-frontal upslope.
Several of the 00Z CAMs indicate the potential for isolated to
widely scattered storms capable of a few occurrences of marginally
severe hail and/or locally severe wind gusts.

...Carolinas...

Forcing for ascent associated with the deep-layer low is expected to
contribute to an increase in thunderstorms through the day. Where
stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist boundary layer
will support MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. While stronger upper-level
winds are forecast within the eastern periphery of the low, vertical
shear through the lower half of the storm depth is expected to
remain relatively weak, limiting the potential for storm
organization. Nonetheless, steepening low-level lapse rates and a
high precipitable water may enhance wet microburst potential, with a
few damaging wind gusts possible.

...Middle and Lower Missouri Valley into the upper Midwest...

Consensus of the 00Z models suggests the majority of thunderstorm
activity will likely remain elevated to the north of the front in NE
and IA within a strongly sheared, but only marginally unstable
environment. Poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit any
severe hail threat. There is some model signal for isolated storm
development during the afternoon into evening along the front from
the lower MO Valley into southern/eastern WI. However, given that
there is considerable model variability in the degree of instability
ahead of the boundary, and that vertical shear will be somewhat
marginal across the warm sector, no probabilities will be included
in this forecast.

..Mead.. 08/03/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 17:24:44

ACUS02 KWNS 031724
SWODY2
SPC AC 031722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS......

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and marginally
severe hail appear possible in southeast Arizona, south-central
Colorado, and north-central and northeast New Mexico Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Locally damaging winds may occur with
stronger storms in the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough across southern Canada will bring enhanced westerly
flow aloft across the Northern Rockies into Upper Midwest and
Central Plains. A shortwave trough will move across the Mid-Missouri
Valley late in the period. Weak troughing will be in place across
the eastern US, with a weak upper-level low across northern Georgia
into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front will extend for the
Great Lakes Region south and west into the Mid-Missouri Valley and
into the Southern High Plains.

...Southeast Arizona...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the
high terrain in southeastern Arizona Tuesday afternoon. Convection
will likely build along the high terrain before moving into the
lower deserts by the late afternoon. A deeply mixed and hot air mass
will be in place with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Guidance
suggests that at least moderate instability will be available. This
may allow for a few isolated stronger clusters with potential for
damaging winds through the late afternoon/early evening.

...South-central Colorado and north-central and northeast New
Mexico...
A narrow corridor of instability will overlap with sufficient deep
layer shear near the Sangre De Cristo Mountains in northern New
Mexico/southern Colorado Tuesday afternoon. This will be in the
region where a surface front intersects the terrain within a favored
upslope region. Marginally severe hail and strong to severe wind
gusts will be possible.

...Carolinas...
A vort max will rotate through weak upper-level flow across portions
of the Carolinas and northern Georgia, providing an increase in
forcing for ascent. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected
across the region amid a very moist and unstable air mass. Deep
layer flow will be fairly weak but steepening low level lapse rates
and moist profiles may support a few isolated wet downbursts.

...Middle and Lower Missouri Valley into the upper Midwest...
Convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
Tuesday morning across portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley, which
may linger into the early afternoon. Forcing for ascent will remain
fairly weak during the daytime before a mid-level shortwave rotates
through the flow late in the period. Guidance continues to suggest
that new convective development will be primarily north of the
surface boundary and within a region of poor lapse rates and
marginal instability. Nonetheless, strong deep layer shear will be
present. A few stronger cells may produce gusty winds.

..Thornton.. 08/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 05:27:26

ACUS02 KWNS 010527
SWODY2
SPC AC 010525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...AND OVER A
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds are possible from the
upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas and parts of Georgia Sunday
afternoon and evening. A more conditional severe risk exists across
parts of North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota late Sunday
night.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level low initially over the lower OH Valley Sunday morning is
forecast to evolve into an open wave while slowly moving through the
OH and TN Valleys. That feature will be loosely linked to a
strengthening mid-level trough over eastern ON into QC. Elsewhere,
an intense upper low will move from AB into SK with an attending
belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb spreading from the northern Rockies
into the northern High Plains.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will move through the OH
Valley with a trailing wind shift/weak front moving across the TN
Valley and Gulf Coast states. There is also a signal for a diffuse
warm front to lift north through the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England. Farther northwest, a cold front will advance into the
northern Plains.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Southeast...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning
from the lower Great Lakes into the central Appalachians within the warm-conveyor air stream preceding the OH Valley low. The presence
of a moist and at least modestly unstable environment with little to
no capping will allow showers and storms to persist through the day
in some areas. Where cloud breaks can occur, increased daytime
heating will support corridors of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg.

More intense storms appear possible during the afternoon within the
areas of greater instability, from near and east of the surface low
in the upper OH Valley south along and ahead of the front into GA.
The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt is forecast near the
surface low, where some storm organization appears possible, given
sufficient destabilization. Another area of potential interest is
along the diffuse warm front, which is forecast to lift through the
southern Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon into evening. While
deep-layer shear will be somewhat limited, locally backed surface
winds combined with a broadening and strengthening low-level jet may
enhance low-level shear in the vicinity of the boundary.

Locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with the
most intense storms during the afternoon into evening. However, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the warm front. The
probability of that occurrence currently appears to be less than 2%.

...Northern Plains...

While boundary-layer moisture content will remain somewhat limited,
the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield
an axis of moderate instability ahead the front with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. Despite pre-frontal temperatures warming into the
90s to around 100, afternoon storm development remains uncertain due
to capping at the base of an EML and the absence of forcing for
ascent. Some of the 00Z models indicate a greater possibility of
isolated storm development (mainly elevated) late Sunday night as
the cap is gradually eroded by increasing height falls aloft.
Strengthening vertical shear combined with steep mid-level lapse
rates and MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg suggests a conditional risk for
severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps locally damaging
wind gusts. The level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained due to
uncertainties in storm development and potential coverage.

..Mead.. 08/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 17:27:32

ACUS02 KWNS 011727
SWODY2
SPC AC 011725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...AND OVER A
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds are possible from the
upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas and parts of Georgia Sunday
afternoon and evening. A more conditional severe risk exists across
parts of North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota late Sunday
night.

...Synopsis...
Weak troughing will bring modest flow and broad ascent across much
of the eastern US. Enhanced westerly flow will overspread the
northern periphery of the western ridge across the Northern Rockies
as a more progressive mid-level low moves across the Canadian
Prairies.

At the surface, an occluding surface low will shift northeast across
the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, with a trailing cold front
slowly shifting east across the Ohio Valley into the Gulf States. A
cold front will shift across portions of the Northern Rockies into
the northern Plains.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
Broad forcing for ascent within the region of the eastward sagging
cold front will produce widely scattered thunderstorm activity
across much of the region from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast.
Activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the
northern Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Broken mid-level cloud
cover behind the morning convection should allow for sufficient heating/destabilization and moderate instability ahead of the cold
front by the afternoon. This in combination with deep layer shear
around 25-35 kts will support isolated strong storms capable of
damaging wind where better heating can occur.

...Northern Plains...
A conditional severe threat will extend across potions of North
Dakota into northern Minnesota. Within this region, the environment
will be favorable for severe storms, with moderate to strong
instability and strong deep layer shear. However, weak forcing for
ascent and strong capping at the base of the EML during the daytime
heating period may limit development until mid-level cooling and
ascent from the upper wave moves in late. Nonetheless, should a cell
or two develop the environment would support potential for large
hail and damaging wind. It appears most likely that convection
develops along the cold front toward the end of the D2 period, with
potential for large hail and damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 08/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 17:22:52

ACUS02 KWNS 301722
SWODY2
SPC AC 301720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms appear possible from Iowa
southward into the Ozark Plateau, and over the central and southern
High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic occurrences of
damaging wind and large hail will be the primary hazards, with a
conditional risk for a few tornadoes over Missouri.

...Southern IA into MO and northern AR...
A zone of severe potential remains evident on Friday from southeast
IA across much of MO and into northern AR, though complicating
factors remain.

A shortwave trough will move southeastward toward the lower MO and
mid MS Valleys, which will enhance mid and upper level winds.
However, temperatures aloft will not cool much, and as such,
midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor. In addition, early
day storms are expected, and at least some degree of temporary
stabilization may occur, especially if an MCS develops over NE/KS
Thursday night as depicted by some models.

That said, low-level moisture will likely either remain intact or
redevelop as any residual outflows modify. Daytime heating and 70s F
dewpoints will still result in MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg just ahead
of the cold front which will extend from the IA/MO border area
southwestward into northwest AR by 00Z.

Southwest 850 mb winds will maintain warm advection toward the MS
Valley, and this is also where low-level SRH will be greatest. Given
decent model agreement with redevelopment late in the day along the
cold front, a small Slight Risk has been introduced, covering
damaging wind and conditional tornado potential.

...Eastern CO and NM...
Mid to upper-level northwesterly winds may increase a bit on Friday
as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the central Plains,
with 20-25 kt speeds at 500 mb expected. Minor cooling aloft may
occur across the High Plains as this wave glances the area.

Surface winds will veer to northeasterly by late afternoon,
maintaining moisture and enhancing upslope flow. Storms are likely
to form over the higher terrain of southeast CO into much of
northeast NM, with mean winds supporting southeastward storm
motions. It appears enough storm coverage may develop to support
locally severe outflow winds through early evening.

..Jewell.. 07/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 05:37:22

ACUS02 KWNS 310537
SWODY2
SPC AC 310535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND PART OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind
appear possible across central Kentucky, middle Tennessee, and part
of northern Alabama Saturday afternoon and evening. A broader area
of more isolated damaging wind potential will exist from parts of
the Ohio Valley into portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail may
occur over New Mexico into southeast Arizona Saturday afternoon into
evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the mid MS Valley Saturday morning will
progress into the lower OH and TN Valleys with a belt of stronger mid/upper-level winds rounding the trough base in those areas. In
the low levels, a surface low will develop from central IL into
northern IN during the day before reaching southeast lower MI late
Saturday night. A 30-35 kt low-level jet (LLJ) will precede the
surface low over the OH and TN Valleys, supporting a corridor of
stronger low-level shear in those areas. Meanwhile, a cold front
will advance through the lower and middle OH Valley, TN Valley, and
much of the lower MS Valley with the western extension of the front
pushing south through central and southwest TX.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central Gulf Coast states...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday
across portions of the OH and TN Valleys into MS and AL within the warm-conveyor air stream preceding the surface low and cold front.
In the wake of the early-day storms, and where stronger heating can
occur, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will
contribute to an axis of MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg north of
the OH River, to as high as 2000-2500 J/kg from middle TN into parts
of MS and AL.

Renewed thunderstorm development is expected by early- to
mid-afternoon along the cold front and within the relatively narrow
instability axis over IN with subsequent southward development
through KY and TN into MS and AL. The strongest deep-layer shear of
30-35 kt is forecast from KY to north of the OH River with vector
orientations largely perpendicular to the front. Vertical shear
decreases with southward extent along the front; however, that may
be offset to some extent by a more favorable thermodynamic
environment.

It currently appears that the most favorable overlap of instability
and at least modest vertical shear will reside from central KY into
northern AL Saturday afternoon into evening, where a level 2/Slight
Risk has been delineated. Damaging winds are likely to be the
primary hazard with the most intense storms. Some tornado risk may
develop across portions of KY into IN and OH Saturday afternoon into
evening along the LLJ, where low-level shear is forecast to be
stronger. However, forecast soundings indicate generally poor
low-level lapse rates in areas of strongest shear, which may tend to
limit a more substantial threat. Large hail potential appears
limited due to warm mid-level temperatures and resultant poor lapse
rates.

...New Mexico into southeast Arizona...

The 00Z models continue to suggest that a weak mid-level disturbance
will progress south through the central and southern High Plains on
Saturday. The glancing influence of that feature coupled with an
increasing upslope component in the low-level wind field is expected
to support widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon along the
Raton Mesa, as well as Sangre De Cristo and Sacramento Mountains.
Additional storms may form along the high terrain in the
west-central NM. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s combined with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support a moderately unstable
air mass with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.

Deep-layer shear is expected to strengthen to 30-40 kt by afternoon,
suggesting the potential for organized storm modes with the initial
hazard being marginally severe hail. Individual storms may tend to
cluster by late afternoon into evening with the 00Z CAMs indicating
an increased potential for severe wind gusts, especially from
south-central NM into southeast AZ.

..Mead.. 07/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 16:47:22

ACUS02 KWNS 311647
SWODY2
SPC AC 311645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind
appear possible across central Kentucky, middle Tennessee, and part
of northern Alabama Saturday afternoon and evening. A broader area
of more isolated damaging wind potential will exist from parts of
the Ohio Valley into portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail may
occur over New Mexico into southeast Arizona Saturday afternoon into
evening.

...TN and OH Valleys...

A compact upper low and attendant positive-tilt shortwave trough
will spread east from the Lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau toward
the Mid-South/Lower OH Valley on Saturday. This will bring a belt of
30-40 kt mid/upper southwesterly flow across parts of the region,
decreasing with southward extent into the TN Valley. At the surface,
low pressure initially over central IL will slowly progress east
across IN and western OH. A trailing cold front will move east in
tandem with the low, while a warm front remains nearly stationary
across southern IN/OH. A very moist airmass will be in place, with a
plume of 70s dewpoints extending northward from northern MS/AL
through Middle TN and into KY/southern IN/southwest OH.

Showers/thunderstorms and widespread cloudiness are likely Saturday
morning within the low-level warm advection regime ahead of the
surface cold front. This will likely impact severe potential from
late morning through early evening as stronger heating may be
limited. Furthermore, low-level lapse rates will be stunted by early
day convection and limited heating. Rich boundary-layer moisture
will result in 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid sufficient vertical shear
for organized convection. Strong to severe storms capable of wind
damage will be the main hazard with storms from midday into early
evening. Some tornado risk also is apparent, especially near the
triple point, where 0-1 km SRH will be maximized. However, the
impact of early day convection and cloudiness on low-level lapse rates/destabilization leads to uncertainty in the extent of more
robust tornado potential as low-level instability may be
insufficient to take advantage of the small area of enhanced
low-level SRH, precluding higher tornado probabilities at this time.

...NM/AZ...

A midlevel disturbance is forecast to migrate south across High
Plains within northerly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the
western U.S. upper ridge/anticyclone. Low-level flow will become
more east/southeasterly with time into the afternoon, promoting
upslope flow amid 50s surface dewpoints. Steep low and midlevel
lapse rates will foster up to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and
convection is expected to develop from the Raton Mesa vicinity
southward across higher terrain in NM. Thunderstorm clusters will
mainly pose a risk for strong/severe outflow gusts. However, initial
convection could also pose a risk for hail given elongated/straight
hodographs and 500 mb temps near -8 to -10 C.

..Leitman.. 07/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 17:29:30

ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...AND
FROM FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds are
possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern
Georgia, northern Florida and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated severe
storms capable of damaging gusts and large hail may occur over the
northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern GA and AL...Northern FL and the FL Panhandle...
A slow moving upper trough will begin to weaken/fill on Wednesday
over the eastern states, with upper low centered over NY. A cold
front will primarily be offshore, but the tail end will extend
westward across GA/FL. Ahead of the front, 70s F dewpoints and
strong heating will lead to strong instability, with MLCAPE possibly
reaching 4000 J/kg. This high PWAT environment along with favorable
time of day near peak heating will yield severe wind potential as
storms develop near the cold front during the afternoon.

While shear will be weak, modest westerly mean winds aloft should
support a general southeastward storm motion with multicells and
merging outflows expected. The primary concentration of storms
should be from far southern GA into the FL Panhandle and northern
FL, and perhaps into far southeast AL. Additional daytime activity
is likely farther northwest across MA and AR as well, though
large-scale support will be less. Still, areas of strong instability
could yield scattered strong gusts there.

...Northern High Plains...
A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into WY during the
afternoon with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates
developing. This area will also be affected by a disturbance aloft
rounding the upper ridge and enhancing mid/upper winds and
deep-layer shear. Southeasterly low-level winds will maintain
sufficient moisture into the region to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
even as the boundary layer mixes with heating. Storms will form over
eastern MT and WY after 21Z and move into the western Dakotas
through early evening, with damaging wind potential. Isolated hail
may occur as well as mid/upper lapse rates remain steep, and high
level winds increase, elongating hodographs.

..Jewell.. 07/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 17:27:18

ACUS02 KWNS 041727
SWODY2
SPC AC 041725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central
Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New
Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...Missouri/Iowa/Illinois...
Broad troughing over the north-central CONUS into the Great Lakes
region will bring moderate to seasonably strong mid-level flow
across the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys. Large-scale lift will
not be overly strong, though embedded shortwave troughs may augment
lift locally. Along a surface trough from the lower Great Lakes
southwestward into the central Plains, dewpoints of mid/upper 60s to
low 70s F are expected. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be possible by
the afternoon. The strongest shear will likely remain on the cool
side of the surface boundary, but 30-35 kt of effective shear will
be sufficient for a few organized storms. Initial cells will be
capable of marginally severe hail. Clusters/linear segments will be
the predominant storm modes with an associated risk of damaging
winds.

...New Mexico into the Panhandles...
Moist upslope flow into the Raton Mesa will allow for storm
development by late afternoon. Modest northwesterly flow aloft
(around 35-40 kt of effective shear) will promote marginally
organized storms. Strong/severe winds will be the main hazard given
strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates.

...Arizona...
A moist airmass (50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will be in
place during the afternoon/evening. Westerly surface winds will
promote storm development within eastern portion of the Mogollon
Rim. Modest easterly winds aloft should be sufficient to move
activity off of the Rim into the lower deserts. Strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible especially where clustering of outflow
occurs.

..Wendt.. 08/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 05:50:20

ACUS02 KWNS 050550
SWODY2
SPC AC 050548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,
and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains activity.

...Central SD into northwest NE...
A shortwave trough will move southeastward across SK/MB, with at
least some influence extending southward across the northern Plains.
A surface trough will develop southward into central SD and western
NE, where strong heating will occur. A narrow band of uncapped
instability is forecast, with several models indicating scattered
storms late in the day. Southerly 850 mb winds over 20 kt will
aid/maintain moisture into the area, and forecast soundings show
marginally favorable hodographs for supercells. Localized hail may
occur initially, with some clustering and wind potential into the
early evening.

...Southern KS into northwest OK...
A surface trough/wind shift is forecast to exist from southern KS
into northern OK, with southerly winds and strong heating to the
south. Near/north of the boundary, winds will remain southeasterly
with higher dewpoints. General model consensus is for the deeply
mixed boundary layer to support an uncapped air mass, with a zone of
storms developing. These will likely produce strong outflow, and a
few severe gusts may occur.

...Northeast...
Southwest winds aloft will persist over the region as an upper high
remains over the Atlantic and a shortwave trough approaches the
Lower Great Lakes by late afternoon. Height tendencies will remain
neutral from NY into WV/VA during the day, but strong heating, PWAT
near 2.00" and sufficient MUCAPE should aid scattered storm
development near a weak surface trough after 19Z. This would include
from south-central NY into central PA and across the higher terrain
of western VA. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 17:29:00

ACUS02 KWNS 051728
SWODY2
SPC AC 051726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,
and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains/Ozarks activity.

...Northwest Oklahoma into southwest Missouri...
A stalled surface boundary is expected to be draped across southern
Kansas into central Missouri. The Missouri portion of the boundary
will likely be reinforced by early day convection/cloud cover.
Strong heating south of the boundary will allow for locally enhanced
surface convergence. Storm development is possible along the
boundary, though it remains uncertain where this development is most
probable. The presence of the broad trough to the north will support
sufficient shear that storms would be at least marginally organized.
Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat with this
activity with marginal hail possible where buoyancy will be locally
greater in Missouri.

...Northeast...
Areas of modest to strong heating of a very moist (70+ F dewpoints)
airmass will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid-afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but enhanced mid-level
winds associated with the Great Lakes trough will promote marginally
organized clusters/linear segments. Isolated wind damage will be
possible with this activity.

...Nebraska/South Dakota...
A secondary cold front will develop within the northern Plains.
Moisture return ahead of the boundary will bring upper 50s to low
60s F dewpoint northward. Mid-level heights are forecast to rise
slightly during the period. Given effective shear of around 40 kt
across the boundary, an isolated supercell or two will be possible
where surface heating can remove MLCIN. Severe winds and marginally
severe hail would be the expected hazards. The Marginal risk remains
where confidence in storm development is highest, though a storm or
two could develop farther northeast. Confidence remains too low for
an expansion of probabilities.

..Wendt.. 08/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 05:41:34

ACUS02 KWNS 060541
SWODY2
SPC AC 060539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may occur from Iowa across Wisconsin
and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind
gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally
damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast.

...IA...southeast MN...WI...Upper MI...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will move across the northern Plains
and into the Upper MS Valley, with a cold front extending from
northwest WI into IA by late afternoon. A moist air mass with 70s F
dewpoints will exist ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE. Supporting the potentially strong instability will be
relatively cool 500 mb temperatures to around -10 C.

Storms are likely to form during the afternoon along the front with
scattered marginal hail or strong wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will
not be particularly strong. Some potential may develop for an MCS
over southern areas including IA, and this area will be monitored
for potential greater wind probabilities.

...Northern VA into PA and southern NY...
Midlevel southwesterlies around 25 kt will exist across the
northeastern states on Friday, with weak height falls occurring as a
primary upper trough moves across the Great Lake region. In the low
levels, west/southwest winds around the Atlantic high will maintain
a warm/moist air mass, which when heated during the afternoon should
yield up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, especially near the coastal areas
where dewpoints will be higher.

Despite lack of any surface boundaries, model consensus is for
scattered storms to develop from northern VA/MD into central to
eastern PA and across southern NY during the afternoon. Shear will
be weak but a few clusters of storms may produce gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 17:38:18

ACUS02 KWNS 061735
SWODY2
SPC AC 061734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may occur from the Mid-Missouri Valley
across Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of
strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms
may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast and
hail over parts of central Nebraska/South Dakota.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into Wisconsin/Upper Peninsular Michigan...
A cold front will move into the Upper Midwest during the afternoon.
Moisture return ahead of the front will maintain upper 60s F farther
north to low 70s F dewpoints across Iowa/southern Minnesota.
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected during the afternoon. The
approaching mid-level jet will bring stronger mid-level flow and
30-45 kt of effective shear to the region (stronger shear will
generally exist with southwestward extent). Initial activity will
likely be cellular with a tendency to become more linear with time.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Given the
stronger buoyancy and shear within Iowa, there is greater potential
for an MCS to develop with an associated greater risk for wind
damage. Variance is relatively high within model guidance as to
where this corridor will exist due in part to the subtle forcing.
Some guidance suggests a cluster of activity is possible during the
morning hours. This could intensify as the airmass destabilizes
during the day. Other guidance suggests limited morning activity
with storms forming along the front farther east. An increase in
wind probabilities is possible as confidence increases.

...South Dakota/Nebraska...
At least moderate elevated instability is forecast to develop as a
low-level jet intensifies within the region late Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Several CAMs and global guidance suggest
development will occur. Sufficient mid-level flow on the southern
flank of the northern Plains trough will allow for organized storms.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk for isolated large
hail.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Though mid-level winds will be slightly weaker than on Thursday, the
approach of a modest trough will allow for marginally organized
storms within a very moist environment. Afternoon MLCAPE will near
2000 J/kg in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Model consensus continues to
support the potential for widely scattered to scattered storms
within this weakly capped airmass. Isolated damaging winds will be
possible.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Given the presence of a stalled boundary/outflow, some potential
exists for storms to develop during the afternoon. Confidence on
where this boundary will be placed is quite low at this time.
Deep-layer shear will also be somewhat weak as well. Given these
factors, severe wind probabilities will be withheld, though isolated
wind damage could occur.

..Wendt.. 08/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 05:59:10

ACUS02 KWNS 070558
SWODY2
SPC AC 070557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central and Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place on Saturday over
much of the north-central U.S. as the southern edge of a jet streak
moves across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward through the Dakotas. To the south of the front, a
moist axis is forecast to be in place from central South Dakota
southward into southern Nebraska and eastward into north-central
Missouri. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop
along the moist axis by afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be
relatively weak throughout the region which will keep convection
isolated. The most favorable areas for isolated thunderstorm
development could be over central and eastern Nebraska, where some
models focus low-level convergence near a low-level jet in the
evening. Additional storms could develop along a moisture gradient
in northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Nebraska into
southern South Dakota in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the
35 to 45 knot range with steep low-level lapse rates. This could
support supercells and organized multicells capable of severe wind
gusts and hail. Isolated severe gusts could also occur southeastward
along and near the instability gradient in northern Missouri.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 17:33:10

ACUS02 KWNS 071733
SWODY2
SPC AC 071731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic
and central/southeast Arizona.

...Central Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley...
A complex forecast scenario continues to be evident on Saturday.
Models continue to show a focused low-level jet into western
Nebraska/South Dakota early Saturday morning. Some convection may be
associated with this feature, though storm coverage is not clear.
Depending on the evolution of that activity, some risk for severe
winds and large hail is possible. Storm coverage will largely
dictate how long early morning activity can persist into the
afternoon as warming temperatures aloft are expected during the day.
A strong enough cold pool would have to evolve in order to allow
convection to propagate southeastward with the low-level jet
decreasing into the late morning/early afternoon. Convective
development during the afternoon is far from certain given the
aforementioned capping that will exist. Forcing for ascent will be
weak as well. Some guidance does show some thunderstorm development
along the cold front in parts of the eastern Dakotas/western
Minnesota. The Marginal has been expanded into these areas to
account for this potential hail/wind threat.

By late afternoon/early evening, an intensifying low-level jet will
be focused within the Mid-Missouri Valley. Storm development will
become more likely along the warm front as this occurs. However, the
strongest activity may not form until around 06Z. This reduces
confidence in how severe the activity will be, particularly in terms
of severe wind. Again, the Marginal was expanded to the north/east
to encompass the various model solutions. Large hail would be
possible even with elevated storms given sufficient shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. A greater threat for severe wind gusts may
still develop, but this is conditional on enough of a cold pool
developing. Confidence remains rather low.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A modest, low-amplitude shortwave trough will be favorably timed
with afternoon heating. Widely scattered to scattered storms are
possible ahead of this feature. Deep-layer shear will not be overly
strong, but should be sufficient for strong/marginally severe cells
and clusters. Storm coverage is not certain given the veered,
deep-layer flow, but most model guidance suggests locally greater
storm coverage from northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and
adjacent New Jersey. Wind damage will be the main concern.

...Arizona...
Low 60s F dewpoints are forecast to remain within the lower desert
areas. Strong heating should promote destabilization during the
afternoon/early evening. Most CAM guidance suggests that one or more
clusters will develop on the Mogollon Rim and move west/southwest.
Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

..Wendt.. 08/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 06:02:12

ACUS02 KWNS 080602
SWODY2
SPC AC 080600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening from parts of the northern Plains
east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Severe gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Maine and
southeast Arizona.

...Northern Plains/Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great
Lakes...
Mid-level flow will be west-northwesterly on Sunday from the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place from South Dakota eastward into
the southern Great Lakes. Although moderate instability is forecast
to develop over much of this corridor by afternoon, large-scale
ascent will remain relatively weak. For that reason, thunderstorm
development will confined to areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. Some solutions show an east-to-west axis of
strong low-level convergence from Iowa into northern Indiana,
suggesting this could be a favored area for thunderstorm development
in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast soundings near this axis in the late afternoon have surface
dewpoints in the 70s with moderate to strong instability. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range with a
substantial amount of low-level directional shear. This should
support a severe threat with supercells and short intense line
segments. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.

Further west into parts of the northern Plains, a subtle shortwave
trough is forecast to move into South Dakota during the day. A
post-frontal airmass will be in place ahead of the shortwave with
surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F. This will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near
the axis of instability will have potential for isolated severe
gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Maine...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great
Lakes on Sunday, with west-southwesterly flow located over the
Northeast. Ahead of the system, a cold front is forecast to move
eastward across New England. As surface temperatures warm during the
day, thunderstorm development is expected to take place near the
front in the higher terrain across parts of western Maine. These
storms are forecast to move quickly eastward across central and
eastern Maine during the afternoon. Moderate instability, steep low
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will likely support an
isolated wind-damage threat.

...Southern Appalachians...
Moderate instability will develop on Sunday across much of the
southern Appalachians, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper
60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. The
moderate instability, along with precipitable water values in the
1.70 to 1.85 inch range, will support a potential for isolated
severe wet downbursts as instability becomes maximized in the late
afternoon.

...Southeast Arizona...
Surface dewpoints across southern Arizona will be in the upper 50s
to near 60 F on Sunday. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
moderate instability will develop over much of southern Arizona.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern
Arizona, with the storms moving west-southwestward into the unstable
air during the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level
lapse rates and large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will
support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 06:32:20

ACUS02 KWNS 080632
SWODY2
SPC AC 080630

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDERLINE

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening from parts of the northern Plains
east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Severe gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Maine and
southeast Arizona.

...Northern Plains/Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great
Lakes...
Mid-level flow will be west-northwesterly on Sunday from the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place from South Dakota eastward into
the southern Great Lakes. Although moderate instability is forecast
to develop over much of this corridor by afternoon, large-scale
ascent will remain relatively weak. For that reason, thunderstorm
development will confined to areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. Some solutions show an east-to-west axis of
strong low-level convergence from Iowa into northern Indiana,
suggesting this could be a favored area for thunderstorm development
in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast soundings near this axis in the late afternoon have surface
dewpoints in the 70s with moderate to strong instability. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range with a
substantial amount of low-level directional shear. This should
support a severe threat with supercells and short intense line
segments. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.

Further west into parts of the northern Plains, a subtle shortwave
trough is forecast to move into South Dakota during the day. A
post-frontal airmass will be in place ahead of the shortwave with
surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F. This will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near
the axis of instability will have potential for isolated severe
gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Maine...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great
Lakes on Sunday, with west-southwesterly flow located over the
Northeast. Ahead of the system, a cold front is forecast to move
eastward across New England. As surface temperatures warm during the
day, thunderstorm development is expected to take place near the
front in the higher terrain across parts of western Maine. These
storms are forecast to move quickly eastward across central and
eastern Maine during the afternoon. Moderate instability, steep low
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will likely support an
isolated wind-damage threat.

...Southern Appalachians...
Moderate instability will develop on Sunday across much of the
southern Appalachians, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper
60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. The
moderate instability, along with precipitable water values in the
1.70 to 1.85 inch range, will support a potential for isolated
severe wet downbursts as instability becomes maximized in the late
afternoon.

...Southeast Arizona...
Surface dewpoints across southern Arizona will be in the upper 50s
to near 60 F on Sunday. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
moderate instability will develop over much of southern Arizona.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern
Arizona, with the storms moving west-southwestward into the unstable
air during the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level
lapse rates and large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will
support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 17:35:50

ACUS02 KWNS 081735
SWODY2
SPC AC 081734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds may occur Sunday from eastern Iowa across
northern Illinois and Indiana. A concentrated area of damaging wind
and hail is also expected over much of South Dakota.

...From eastern IA into northern IN...
Storms, possibly producing strong wind gusts, may be ongoing over
much of the area Sunday morning. This potentially severe activity
could persist for much of the day as it travels southeastward with
access to a destabilizing air mass.

Behind the early activity, strong instability will develop as
low-level winds remain out of the southwest. While mid to upper
level winds will not be particularly strong, the veering low-level
winds and likelihood of redevelopment along any outflow boundaries
suggests additional severe storms during the late afternoon, moving
across much of the same areas as the early day storms. Damaging
winds appear to be the primary concern, however, a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out early in the redevelopment cycle as low-level
instability will be large, with perhaps enhanced low-level shear
near residual outflows.

...Dakotas...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the region, with
surface winds veering to east/southeast late in the day. A moist
plume should be maintained over SD within the recovering warm
advection regime, with evening 850 mb winds also increasing out of
the south. Surface based storms are expected to develop into much of
SD, with an initial large hail threat. With time, an MCS could
develop, producing a swath of damaging winds. Isolated significant
wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Southern AZ...
Easterly flow aloft around the upper high will support a westward
component to the storms motions on Sunday, possibly bringing locally
strong gusts into the lower elevations as storms move out of Mexico,
and possibly off the Rim. Substantial PWAT will remain over the
region with 60s F dewpoints which when combined with steep low-level
lapse rates will support afternoon storms and locally severe gusts.

...Southern Appalachians...
Storms will form over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon from
northern GA into the western Carolinas. Given sufficient storm
concentration, a few damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as storms
and outflows generally spread eastward into the diurnally heating
air mass.

..Jewell.. 08/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 05:44:22

ACUS02 KWNS 090544
SWODY2
SPC AC 090542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible
from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

...Southern Great Lakes...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be in place on Monday
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A subtle mid-level
shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move through the
Great Lakes. To the south of the jet streak, a cold front is
forecast to advance southward into northern Illinois, northern
Indiana and northern Ohio by mid afternoon. Low-level convergence
along the front will be a focus for convective development. To the
south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute
to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon, with MLCAPE
likely peaking in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop near the front and move east-southeastward into
the stronger instability during the afternoon and evening.

Along the instability axis in the late afternoon from Lincoln,
Illinois to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the ECMWF has 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots. This should support a mixed mode, with short
intense line segments and embedded rotating storms possible. The
primary threat will damaging wind gusts, with the maximum threat
located ahead of any cold pool that can organize. The severe threat
could persist into the early to mid evening, especially if MCS
development takes place, maintained by increasing low-level flow.

...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the
north-central U.S. on Monday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast
to move east-southeastward across the northern Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across
western South Dakota during the day, with a dryline extending
southward into western Nebraska. To the east of the dryline, surface
dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms appear likely to
develop near the dryline during the mid to late afternoon.
Additional isolated storms are expected to develop further east
along the moist axis from eastern Nebraska into Iowa.

Forecast sounding along the moist axis in the late afternoon have
MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots. This environment, combined with steep low to
mid-level lapse rates, will support isolated potential for severe
wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 17:39:00

ACUS02 KWNS 091738
SWODY2
SPC AC 091737

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM
ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible
from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with
scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

...From northern IL eastward into PA...
A leading shortwave trough may support early day thunderstorms over
portions of NY and PA, though probably not immediately severe. Some
chance exists for re-development from southern New England into NJ
during the afternoon as a surface trough develops, and at least
isolated severe activity is possible. Additional afternoon storms
may develop across the remainder of NY and PA as instability
develops behind the initial wave with areas of strong gusts and
marginal hail.

While isolated wind/hail may occur during the early to mid afternoon
as the air mass becomes uncapped, a greater coverage of severe
storms is expected during the late afternoon and into the evening
from southern WI/IL into IN and OH. Here, a large area of strong
instability will develop, with a persistent/deepening boundary layer
theta-e plume out of the southwest. The high PWAT, relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates, and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt will support
supercell development, with possible bowing structures with time.
Large hail, perhaps an isolated tornado, and damaging winds will be
possible.

...Northern Plains...
Southeast surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints into NE and SD
during the afternoon as strong heating occurs near a surface trough
over the High Plains/Black Hills. This will occur beneath moderate
westerly flow aloft, which will elongate hodographs and produce
favorable deep-layer shear for long-lived cells or bows. Storm
coverage is uncertain, but the conditional risk for large damaging
hail and wind is high. At least isolated cells are expected to form
near the Black Hills and into western NE where heating will be
strong, with perhaps greater storm chances increasing after 00Z into
the central Dakotas with the aid of a modest nocturnal low-level
jet.

...Southern AZ...
Substantial moisture will remain over the area Monday, with PWAT
over 1.25" and areas of 60s F dewpoints. Westerly surface winds are
forecast to develop during the afternoon over southern AZ, which
when combined with the deep easterlies aloft, will support
westward-propagating cells. Storms should form near the Rim and over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ, with locally severe gusts as
activity moves across the lowlands. A storm or two could potentially
produce small hail as well as deep-layer effective shear will be
over 30 kt.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 06:01:02

ACUS02 KWNS 100600
SWODY2
SPC AC 100559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible on
Tuesday from parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians
in the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains
into the Midwest.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will remain in place on
Tuesday from the northern Plains to the central Appalachians. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from
northern Illinois east-southeastward into far northern Kentucky. To
the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F
will result in moderate to strong instability by midday. Low-level
convergence along the boundary will likely be the focus for
convective initiation during the day. It appears that an intense
line segment could develop and move east-southeastward along and
near the frontal zone from mid afternoon to mid evening. However,
there is some uncertainty concerning where the boundary from morning
convection will be in the afternoon.

Forecast soundings along and to the south of the front from
east-central Illinois into far northern Kentucky at 21Z have MLCAPE
in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Wind profiles along this
west-northwest to east-southeast corridor have directional shear in
the boundary layer with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow in
the mid-levels. Some of this zone could have 0-6 km shear in the 40
to 50 knot range along with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around
200 m2/s2. This would support supercells with severe wind gusts and
an isolated tornado threat. Some model forecasts, including the HRRR
suggest that an organized cold pool will develop during the late
afternoon. This scenario could result in a swath of wind damage
across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
At mid-levels, rising heights and west-northwesterly flow will be in
place over the north-central U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold
front will move southeastward across the northern High Plains, as a
low deepens across South Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Low-level convergence will aid convective
initiation during the mid to late afternoon, with isolated storms
moving east-southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest.

Across the moist airmass, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This
will support supercells with isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
However, the rising mid-level heights and lack of large-scale ascent
could result in a more localized severe threat.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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