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  • DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 08:16:36
    ACUS48 KWNS 280816
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 280814

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

    Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Friday...

    The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough
    over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low
    tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those
    features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging
    with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the
    surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther
    southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of
    a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear
    possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the
    cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger
    forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability,
    the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.


    Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over
    the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level
    upslope regime.


    ...Day 5/Saturday...

    The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid
    MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the
    trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley,
    where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few
    severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however,
    generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for
    a more organized event.

    ...Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday...

    Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in
    relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough
    and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the
    international border from the northern Rockies to the northern
    Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat
    could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday
    and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as
    strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By
    Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains
    with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal
    upslope regime.

    ..Mead.. 07/28/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 08:42:12
    ACUS48 KWNS 290841
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 290839

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

    Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Saturday...

    A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH
    Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast
    states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same
    track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances
    through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a
    modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon
    ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

    Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS
    Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal
    low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain
    uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of
    boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of
    moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the
    afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow
    boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to
    remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the
    potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across
    parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could
    contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise,
    locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

    Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail
    appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and
    evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.


    ...Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday...

    The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong
    short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing
    along the international border from the northern Rockies into the
    northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into
    southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer
    moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains
    into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse
    rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will
    support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday
    and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

    An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East
    Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through
    the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.


    ...Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday...

    The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced
    mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes,
    between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the
    Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the
    central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and
    perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south
    side of the upper high.

    ..Mead.. 07/29/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 09:02:16
    ACUS48 KWNS 040902
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 040900

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper high will remain over the southwestern states through much
    of the period, with a deep upper low gradually shifting eastward
    across Ontario Canada. In between, a zone of moderate northwest flow
    aloft will exist from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley across the
    Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will exist over the
    central High Plains, with an east-west boundary roughly along I-80
    from Nebraska eastward.

    Stronger cyclonic flow aloft will move out of the northern Plains on
    Fri/D4 and increase across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast
    from Sat/D5 through the end of the period, with midlevel winds
    around 30-40 kt possibly overspreading the surface front. A large
    area of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along and
    south of the boundary, which may shift north/south as disturbances
    rotate around the Canadian upper low. Predictability remains low for
    denoting precise MCS corridors, but timing of the upper wave
    amplifications will be monitored in subsequent forecast cycles, with
    possible risk areas mainly for damaging wind potential.

    ..Jewell.. 08/04/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 02, 2026 08:30:02
    ACUS48 KWNS 020829
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 020828

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

    Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Wednesday...

    Broad troughing will exist from Hudson Bay into the north-central
    U.S. with a belt of enhanced, cyclonic flow from the northern
    Rockies through northern and central Plains into the upper Great
    Lakes. At the surface, a front will advance through the upper Great
    Lakes with the western extension of the boundary settling more
    slowly south through the central into southern High Plains.
    Thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z across portions of the mid MO
    Valley with lingering clouds and convective outflow potentially
    modulating the location of the effective surface front and the
    degree of instability ahead of it. The models suggest an area from
    eastern KS into MO as being the most probable location for at least
    isolated severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. The
    extent of the threat will likely be dependent on mesoscale details
    yet to be known. As such, no area will be delineated in this
    forecast.

    Other areas of isolated severe storm potential will be in the
    central High Plains and southeast AZ.


    ...Days 5 and 6/ Thursday and Friday...

    A slight eastward shift of the mean trough position is forecast on
    Thursday with some model signal for an embedded short-wave trough to
    move through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is some
    suggestion that a weak front or wind shift will move into the
    northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon with the trailing
    extension of that boundary stretching through the mid MS Valley into
    the southern High Plains. Ahead of that boundary, widespread 70+ F
    dewpoints are expected from New England into the Mid-Atlantic and
    Carolinas, leading to moderate to potentially strong instability.
    The greatest potential for a few severe storms appears to be across
    the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon where the moderate instability
    will coincide with a belt of 30-40 kt mid-level flow.

    Some severe weather threat may also develop in the Ozark Plateau and
    AZ Thursday afternoon and evening.

    On Friday, the above-mentioned Great Lakes short-wave trough is
    expected to shear northeast across southern ON with 30-40 kt of
    mid-level flow prevailing over the Northeast. The surface pattern is
    somewhat disorganized with some semblance of a trough from southern
    New England through the Mid-Atlantic coastal region. Moderate to
    strong instability may again develop ahead of that feature,
    supporting the potential for some severe weather threat during the
    afternoon and early evening hours. However, the strongest vertical
    shear is forecast to remain to the north of the stronger
    instability, leading to uncertainty in the magnitude of the severe
    threat.


    ...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday...

    The various 00Z ensemble mean solutions indicate a slight eastward
    shift of an upper low near Hudson Bay with low-amplitude troughing
    and strengthening mid-level flow moving into the Northeast.
    Southerly low-level winds within the western periphery of a surface
    high positioned off the Atlantic Coast will maintain a moist and
    unstable air mass beneath the strengthening winds aloft. As such,
    some severe weather threat is expected to persist from the
    Mid-Atlantic into New England this period.

    Elsewhere, there is some model signal for a surface front to move
    into the Midwest, where some severe weather potential may exist.

    ..Mead.. 08/02/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 03, 2026 08:31:12
    ACUS48 KWNS 030830
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 030829

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Thursday...

    Broad troughing is forecast from the northern Plains through the
    Great Lakes with a series of disturbances moving through that
    airflow pattern. Elsewhere, an elongated vorticity ribbon will
    progress from the central and southern Appalachians into the
    Northeast. At the surface, a front initially from the southern Great
    Lakes into the southern Plains is forecast to weaken. Over the
    eastern CONUS, southerly winds will maintain a broad corridor of 70+
    F dewpoints along and east of the Appalachians, which will
    contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Aided by the
    approach of the disturbance aloft, thunderstorms are expected to
    increase in coverage through the afternoon with some severe weather
    possible. Generally weak vertical shear and the absence of a
    coherent front in the region lead to uncertainty in where the
    greatest threat may materialize.

    An isolated severe threat may also develop along the front from the
    Ozark Plateau into the southern High Plains, and in AZ during the
    afternoon and evening.


    ...Day 5/Friday...

    An intense mid/upper-level low is expected to evolve over central
    Canada with upper highs situated over the Great Basin and off the
    Mid-Atlantic Coast. Between those features, corridors of stronger
    mid-level flow are forecast from the northern Rockies into the
    northern Plains, and to a lesser extent over the Northeast.
    Some severe weather threat may again materialize from the
    Mid-Atlantic into southern New England in the vicinity of a surface
    trough. However, the strongest vertical shear is forecast to be
    displaced to the north of the stronger instability, leading to
    uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat. Isolated
    severe storms also appear possible along a front moving into the
    upper MS Valley.


    ...Days 6-8/Saturday through Monday...

    The various 00Z ensemble means indicate an upper low initially over
    Hudson Bay shifting east into northern QC with persistent ridging
    over the southern CONUS. Between those features, a belt of enhanced
    mid-level flow is forecast across the northern tier of states with
    some signal for continued troughing through Sunday over the Great
    Lakes into the OH Valley. At the surface, there is ensemble member
    clustering in surface low positions over the northern Plains along a
    front extending into the upper Great Lakes. There is a model signal
    for the front to continue into the Great Lakes and Midwest, where
    some severe weather threat appears possible. A separate severe
    weather risk may also persist from the Mid-Atlantic into New
    England.

    ..Mead.. 08/03/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 01, 2026 08:20:04
    ACUS48 KWNS 010819
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 010817

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

    Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Tuesday...

    A broader-scale trough is forecast over central Canada into the
    north-central U.S. with a series of subtle disturbances moving
    through the base of that feature. At the surface, a front is
    expected to move through the upper Great Lakes with the western
    extension of the boundary settling slowly south through the central
    High Plains. A severe weather threat may materialize from the mid MO
    Valley into the central High Plains along the front and in the
    post-frontal upslope, where an overlap of moderate instability and
    stronger vertical shear is expected to reside.

    Elsewhere, a more widespread area of moderate instability developing
    across southern AZ could support a locally greater risk of severe
    storms.

    The extent of the severe weather threat in both areas is currently
    too uncertain to delineate an area.


    ...Day 5/Wednesday...

    The broad, cyclonic flow regime will continue over the north-central
    CONUS with a belt of slightly enhanced mid-level winds extending
    from the northern Rockies through the northern and central Plains
    into the Great Lakes. At the surface, the previously mentioned front
    will continue through the Great Lakes with the boundary extending
    southwest through the mid MS Valley into the central or southern
    High Plains. Similar to Day 4/Tuesday, some severe weather appears
    possible along the boundary over the lower MO into mid MS Valleys,
    as well as within the post-frontal upslope across the central High
    Plains.

    The subtle nature of the forcing for ascent leads to uncertainty in
    severe storm coverage, so no area will be included.


    ...Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday...

    The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting
    the continuation of an upper high over the southwestern U.S. with lower-amplitude troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast.
    At the surface, there is considerable model spread in the location
    of relevant boundaries that might focus severe storms. That being
    said, much of the available AI guidance suggests an increasing
    severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic during this time frame.

    Model trends will continue to be monitored for the possible
    inclusion of an area in subsequent outlooks.

    ..Mead.. 08/01/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, July 30, 2026 08:37:48
    ACUS48 KWNS 300837
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 300835

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

    Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Days 4 and 5/Sunday and Monday...

    The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong
    short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing
    along the international border from the northern Rockies into the
    northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated cold front is forecast to
    move into the northern High Plains on Sunday and the upper MS Valley
    into northern Plains on Monday. Low-level ridging from the Great
    Lakes into Ozark Plateau may disrupt the advection of a maritime
    tropical air mass ahead of the front. However, evapotranspiration
    will contribute to pockets of higher moisture content, which,
    combined with the eastern extension of an EML plume, will contribute
    to moderate instability ahead of a surface cold front both
    afternoons.

    On Sunday, the strongest forcing for ascent associated with a lead
    vorticity lobe is expected to remain across SK and MB with capping
    to the south of that feature potentially limiting storm coverage
    along the front in ND. On the condition that storms develop, the
    presence of moderate instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear
    would support storm organization and at least an isolated severe
    weather threat. Additional severe storms appear possible from the
    Mid-Atlantic into Southeast ahead of a short-wave trough moving
    through the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Gulf Coast states.

    On Monday, a secondary disturbance and associated jet streak are
    forecast to move into the northern Plains, supporting a potentially
    greater severe weather threat from the northern Plains into the
    upper MS Valley.


    ...Days 6 through 8/Tuesday through Thursday...

    The 00Z deterministic and ensemble mean solutions indicate
    low-amplitude troughing across the north-central states on Tuesday
    with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern
    Rockies into the upper Great Lakes. A few severe storms appear
    possible over the central High Plains where the southern periphery
    of the stronger mid-level flow is juxtaposed with a moist and
    unstable upslope regime.

    By Wednesday and Thursday, the ensemble mean solutions indicate a
    modestly enhanced belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier
    of the CONUS. However, there is considerable spread across the
    deterministic models with the location and track of disturbances
    embedded within that air stream. As such, confidence in the location
    and extent of any severe weather threat is low.

    ..Mead.. 07/30/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 08:51:06
    ACUS48 KWNS 310850
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 310848

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

    Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Monday...

    A short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak are forecast
    to move through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley in
    tandem with a surface cold front. The combination of steep lapse
    rates and a moist boundary layer is expected to yield moderate to
    strong instability by afternoon ahead of the front, amidst a
    kinematic environment featuring 40-50+ kt of deep-layer. As such,
    the potential will exist for organized storm modes capable of a more concentrated severe weather event from eastern ND into northwest MN.
    More isolated severe storms appear possible southwest along the
    front into NE.

    Elsewhere, a mid-level trough is forecast to intensify over western
    QC into the St. Lawrence Valley with an attending belt of
    strengthening mid-level flow overspreading northern New England. At
    the surface, a front is expected to settle south through northern
    New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. Where stronger
    destabilization can occur, isolated severe storms appear possible
    along the front, aided by 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear.


    ...Days 5 and 6/Tuesday and Wednesday...

    A broader-scale trough over central Canada into the north-central
    states on Tuesday is forecast to amplify slightly while moving into
    the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday. Meanwhile, a downstream trough
    across the upper OH Valley is expected to weaken while accelerating
    into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move through
    the Great Lakes with the trailing extension of the boundary stalling
    over the central High Plains. The degree of instability ahead of the
    front remains uncertain; however, sufficient vertical shear is
    expected along the front to support a conditional threat for at
    least isolated severe storms.


    ...Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday...

    The 00Z ensemble means indicate a flattened upper ridge over the
    southwest and south-central U.S. with a belt of modestly enhanced
    mid-level flow across the northern tier of states. However, there is considerable model spread in the location and movement of
    disturbances embedded within that pattern that may focus a severe
    weather threat. That being said, there is a fairly consistent signal
    across AI guidance for some severe weather threat across parts of
    the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday/Day 7. Model trends will continue to be
    monitored for that time period.

    ..Mead.. 07/31/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 09:02:48
    ACUS48 KWNS 050902
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 050900

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Saturday/D4...
    Southwest midlevel winds of only 25 kt will exist across the
    Northeast, while low-level moisture remains in place supporting up
    to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE with poor lapse rates aloft. This will support
    daytime thunderstorms over a large area from the Appalachians into
    the Northeast, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out.
    Otherwise, normal gusty outflow winds are to be expected.

    To the west, an area of stronger instability is forecast across the
    Mid MO Valley, where northwesterly midlevel winds of 35 kt will
    exist along the southern periphery of a trough sweeping across the
    Upper Great Lakes. Evening/overnight storms may occur across parts
    of eastern NE, IA, and MO, and instability may be large enough to
    warrant at least low severe probabilities as the event nears in
    time.

    ...Sunday/D5...
    Drying will occur aloft over parts of the Northeast as a wave moves
    into Quebec, but substantial low-level moisture will still support
    scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front across the Mid
    Atlantic. Shear will again be weak, but perhaps enough mean wind
    speeds will exist for storms to be mobile/produce areas of strong
    gusts.

    To the west, low-level moisture is forecast to shift a bit farther
    north into the Dakotas, and this will occur beneath stronger
    northwest flow aloft. This area bears watching in later outlooks, as
    wind profiles may somewhat favor supercells. Predictability is
    currently low.

    ...Mon/D6 to Wed/D8...
    While predictability decreases further during this time frame,
    moderate west to northwest flow aloft will remain from the upper MS
    Valley across the Great Lakes, which will spread into the Northeast
    D7/D8. If a wave does amplify within this flow regime, a corridor of
    damaging winds could develop given upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
    along/south of the mean frontal zone (roughly IA to NY/PA by end of
    the period). Model variation is currently too great to depict an
    precise corridor.

    ..Jewell.. 08/05/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, August 06, 2026 08:02:02
    ACUS48 KWNS 060801
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 060800

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains
    across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into
    parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given
    the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and
    variability with the position of the elongated west to east front.
    However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating
    around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm
    corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be
    denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.

    At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to
    Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest
    on Monday/D5.

    ..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, August 07, 2026 09:01:46
    ACUS48 KWNS 070901
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070859

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0359 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
    A broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place from
    the north-central U.S. to the Northeast during the early to
    mid-week. On the southern edge of the stronger flow, it appears that
    an east-to-west corridor of moisture and instability will remain in
    place from the central Plains eastward into the Midwest. On Monday,
    isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
    during the afternoon and evening along and near the northern edge of
    the stronger instability, from eastern Nebraska eastward into the
    southern Great Lakes. The greatest convective coverage is expected
    to be from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania,
    where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. Moderate
    deep-layer shear along this zone is forecast to be favorable for a
    severe threat Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells and multicell
    line segments will have potential to produce severe wind gusts.

    On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that a front will
    move southward into northern sections of the Ohio Valley, while the
    instability axis remains in a similar position further west near the
    Omaha area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be
    possible in the afternoon and evening, near and to the north of the
    instability axis. An isolated severe threat could develop with
    storms that form within or near the strongest instability. However, predictability is low concerning where the greatest potential for
    severe storms will be.

    ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
    On Thursday and Friday, west to northwesterly mid-level flow is
    forecast over much of the eastern half of the nation. A moist and
    unstable airmass should be in place from the central and northern
    Plains southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Although
    large-scale ascent may be relatively weak over much of this area,
    isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
    this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Due to the extended
    time range, predictability remains low concerning the finer-scale
    details of any scenario from Thursday into Friday.

    ..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, August 08, 2026 08:57:46
    ACUS48 KWNS 080857
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 080855

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
    A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper
    Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At
    the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of
    the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located
    from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great
    Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F
    will likely result in the development of moderate to strong
    instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
    develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes
    maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where
    the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the
    instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this
    moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be
    possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave
    trough introduces considerable uncertainty.

    ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8...
    From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become
    westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from
    the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio
    Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and
    evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south
    of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make
    isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening.
    However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat
    is considerable at this range.

    ..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, August 09, 2026 09:00:48
    ACUS48 KWNS 090900
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 090858

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
    From Wednesday to Friday, a broad mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is
    forecast to remain in place across the Great Lakes and the
    Northeast, as a ridge moves eastward from the northern Rockies into
    the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is
    forecast to become quasi-stationary from the central and northern
    Plains into the mid Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Low-level convergence
    near this front will be a focus for convective development each day.


    On Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms
    will most likely develop Wednesday afternoon along an axis of
    moderate instability from western Nebraska into southwestern South
    Dakota. The storms will be supported by a mid-level shortwave trough
    moving across the north-central U.S. Moderate deep-layer shear near
    the instability axis should support a severe threat during the
    afternoon and evening. The models also suggest that a convective
    cluster will form within a very moist and unstable airmass in the
    central Appalachians Wednesday afternoon, where a wind-damage threat
    will be possible.

    On Thursday, the most favored corridor for convective development is
    forecast from eastern Nebraska into central Illinois. However, the
    models suggest that scattered convective coverage could be
    concentrated overnight as low-level flow increases across the
    region. A severe threat could develop during the day but would
    remain relatively isolated due to a lack of storm coverage. An
    isolated severe threat could also develop across parts of the
    central and northern High Plains during the afternoon. However,
    storms there will also likely be isolated due to a shortwave ridge
    aloft.

    On Friday, thunderstorm swill also be possible from the central
    Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and
    evening. However, the most favored locations are likely to be
    determined by outflow boundaries associated with the previous day's
    convection. For this reason, uncertainty is substantial on Friday.

    ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
    Over the weekend, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move
    across the north-central U.S., as west-northwesterly flow remains in
    the Northeast. An axis of instability is forecast from the central
    Plains into the Ohio Valley, which will be a focus for thunderstorm development. It appears that an isolated severe threat could develop
    along and near the instability axis each afternoon and evening.
    However, uncertainty is considerable concerning the details of any
    potential scenario.

    ..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, August 10, 2026 08:57:00
    ACUS48 KWNS 100856
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 100854

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
    A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the
    north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on
    Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place
    from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio
    Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will
    make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and
    evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level
    shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern
    Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

    On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
    through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may
    be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon.
    Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the
    central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms
    may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the
    central Plains in the afternoon and evening.

    Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday,
    considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning
    the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great
    to add a threat area.

    ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
    From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast
    to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to
    move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This
    boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each
    afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the
    70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support
    an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists
    concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability
    is low at this extended range.

    ..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)