ACUS11 KWNS 032216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032215
MNZ000-NDZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...parts of north central through west central
Minnesota and adjacent southeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 032215Z - 040015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A period of strong thunderstorm development posing at
least a risk for severe hail may commence by the 7-9 PM CDT time
frame.

DISCUSSION...A stalled, but strengthening, low-level baroclinic zone
across parts of north central Minnesota through southeastern North
Dakota may become a focus for thunderstorm initiation and
intensification by 23-01Z. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates
associated with warm and initially capping elevated mixed layer air,
latest Rapid Refresh output continues to indicate that a narrow
corridor of moderate potential instability will continue to develop
into early evening. Coincident with the western periphery of a
30-40 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet, as 50-70 kt
west-southwesterly flow around 500 mb overspreads the region, the
environment may become conducive to organized thunderstorm
development, including supercell structures.

With stronger mid/upper support for ascent generally trailing to the
west of this boundary, there is some concern that stronger
convection may tend to develop to the immediate cool side of the
front, or become undercut fairly quickly by it. However, even if
this occurs, thermodynamic profiles may still remain supportive of
large hail in stronger storms for a period this evening, before the
front begins to accelerate eastward in the wake of a developing
frontal wave.

..Kerr/Hart.. 08/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6hI4NWdrGDsL15Kn7XuPZnJ_F134fY1w82X5NlxgOL3Lh_nEN3PaLJFHy4uCxpdZVoi_3_WtK4ZB_zc2a5U2blnHwyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 48589479 48549350 47959350 46159612 45989741 46849735
47689623 48589479

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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