ACUS11 KWNS 040436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040436
MNZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...parts of north central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537...

Valid 040436Z - 040600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development posing
a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado still appears
possible near and north-northeast of the Brainerd MN vicinity
through around 1 AM CDT. Otherwise, the risk for severe weather has
diminished enough that a new severe weather watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Post-frontal 2-hourly surface pressure rises continue
to strengthen, with the cold front now advancing across/east of the
Park Rapids and Alexandria vicinities. The primary developing
surface frontal low now appears north of the international border,
but at least a transient 2-hourly fall center (2.5 mb) was recorded
in the 04Z surface observation at Brainerd, where the pre-frontal boundary-layer still appears characterized by modest CAPE (aided by
upper 60s F surface dew points), in the presence of strong shear.

Given this environment, the potential for an additional evolving
supercell structure still appears possible just ahead of, or along,
the cold front near and north-northeast of the Brainerd vicinity,
before the cold front overtakes this region by around 06Z.

..Kerr.. 08/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5WjEgRjR-u0GRGHWFudemBIgCbhFGW178k14YFKK64oSr7vwQKfggIibI2edO2K_52yC3YOHm_emso2shMQvx8cxvi8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46759457 47409363 46909324 46229421 46099478 46219509
46759457

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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