ACUS11 KWNS 021654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021654
NYZ000-021830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of western NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021654Z - 021830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado will skirt the international border near Lake
Ontario/western New York the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...A bowing thunderstorm cluster has developed along a
surface boundary near the international border/western NY. The
downstream airmass is relatively cool, but moist, resulting in weak instability. However, low-level SRH is enhanced along the surface
boundary and in proximity to the larger-scale surface low across the
region. While instability is expected to remain weak, 30-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes will support at least occasional storm
organization. Most of the stronger convection will likely remain
over Lake Ontario and or across the international border. However,
this stronger bowing cluster could skirt the western NY/Lake Ontario
shoreline over the next hour or two, resulting in a low risk for
damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 08/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_CQ2O46Z_QsUDGLjiK6A8qb2xvqzAsc40XlorgWxFfCNSTP1Tx_aLPCbPFOWK76nVdDDeSKj1kzhkDSeGmGdla9dlOU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON 43447943 44107714 44127630 43797586 43427596 43127695
42907828 42957902 43037934 43447943

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)