ACUS11 KWNS 030728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030728
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...New Jersey into southeast New York and Connecticut
and into Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 030728Z - 030930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind/brief tornado threat will exist
through the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...A recent uptick in convective intensity (including
increasing lightning) has been observed with storms from New Jersey
into Connecticut over the past 30 to 45 minutes. These storms are
aided by broad isentropic ascent (40 knot low-level jet sampled by
the OKX VWP) and weak height falls. This strong low-level jet,
combined with backed low-level southeasterly flow ahead of a
deepening surface low across central New York has resulted in
relatively strong low-level shear. In addition, mid to upper 70s
dewpoints are in place, resulting in a very moist low-level air mass
and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg (per SPC HRRR-based mesoanalysis). Storm
mode is messy, due to a combination of storm mergers and a very
moist air mass (2.31 PWAT per IAD 00Z RAOB). These lapse rates and
the messy storm mode should preclude the need for a watch. However,
the very moist low-level air mass and moderately strong low-level
shear could result in isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado.

..Bentley/Smith.. 08/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jKeHgytxH6ZWeZP9ZunlQyqB0g0M05RXEcV7HpLzvEJX19DsgkKBmJ5pZ5PihnP2LB0tt24jpRMm2KL5WUs6x6Cxz4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

LAT...LON 39467423 39947493 40237522 41447394 41827344 42327229
42497139 42387096 41907106 41157179 41017188 40537342
40497379 39797397 39467423

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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