ACUS11 KWNS 031025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031025
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-031230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...central and eastern North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031025Z - 031230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible from storms across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest this morning.

DISCUSSION...An expansive area of storms has developed across North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota within a broad region of isentropic
ascent. 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 35
knots (per SPC mesoanalysis) will support some organization,
including the potential for some supercell structures. Overall,
expect mostly sub-severe high-based storms, but a few of the
stronger storms may be capable of large hail. No watch is expected.

..Bentley/Smith.. 08/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4VfCs8Qb_aQUV8wHasXBEygB0dnxae3sMg-44LVYzb7FMuZx7BDD_rdBxF7vW6q7zA3dAVaWyMWmUL3aFoY8ThAwROo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45950172 47700038 48409935 49129615 49029465 48759448
47689573 46399715 46009827 45819950 45950172

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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