ACUS11 KWNS 031613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031613
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-031815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031613Z - 031815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts, and possibly a weak/brief
tornado, are possible through the afternoon. The overall risk is
expected to remain limited, and a watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in
coverage/intensity ahead of a surface cold near the NY/VT border
early this afternoon. Broken clouds have muted stronger heating, but temperatures have risen modestly into the mid 70s to near 80 F amid
a very moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints). This is
resulting in a corridor of weak destabilization across portions of
New England, with continued destabilization expected through the
afternoon with eastward extent toward western ME. Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft is aiding in effective shear magnitudes
greater than 45 kt across the region, with will allow for transient
storm organization despite weak instability.

Sporadic strong wind gusts will be possible through the afternoon as
the surface front gradually pushes eastward. Where pockets of
stronger heating occur and where backed surface flow is maintained,
a brief/weak spin-up also is possible. However, given weak
instability and poor lapse rate environment, the overall severe risk
should remain limited, and a watch is not currently expected.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 08/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6h0I9nHnJlB9NVM03HAH9CQZzBWFYHNgfmmDw_erm2SMJGS8ahcOT9gRcifbldOuL4-CVgz_iBigGsnAleF2E2zdX-E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 44997322 45457160 45347063 44787023 43767015 42657105
41987217 41957276 42177333 42497367 42947387 44997322

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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