ACUS11 KWNS 311914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311913
MOZ000-ILZ000-312115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...much of central/eastern Missouri into western
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 311913Z - 312115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes to
increase through the afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Air mass recovery is ongoing across portions of western
and central Missouri behind morning thunderstorm activity. A surface
low is currently located across central Iowa, with modest south to southwesterly flow and temperatures warming back into the mid 80s
across Missouri. SPC Mesoanalysis depicts higher theta-e air
advecting in from the southwest and a nose of MLCAPE values around
1000-2000 J/kg are slowly shifting northward into portions of
north-central Missouri. Additionally, visible satellite shows
cumulus becoming increasingly agitated near the front.

This destabilization ahead of the approaching front will be
sufficient to support redevelopment of severe storms over the next
couple of hours both near the front and along surface convergence
with the surface trough in central Missouri. Deep layer shear around
35-40 kts will support supercells. The main threats will likely be
damaging wind and a couple or tornadoes. Tornado potential will be
best where surface winds have a southeasterly component maximizing
low-level SRH. This zone appears most likely across portions of
central/eastern Missouri near the surface trough. A watch will
likely be needed to cover these potential threats in the next couple
of hours.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 07/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4nU7rNCAyzCZVnkRihH_kttlk0_Kc6zPSgNNnrSqQvt2czfyyamm8A21kvomlKfw-nWHc1uIEgcx-iOUNYy1aqM9pTo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37369368 38189389 38469383 38919372 39659353 39769343
40009317 40119292 40219262 40259218 40299184 40309160
40299139 40299137 40189110 39969082 39599067 39079054
38719052 38229054 37709065 37179076 36979082 36669163
36699222 36709261 36739329 36879353 37229364 37369368

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)