ACUS11 KWNS 312004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312003
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-312200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico the Texas Panhandle and
southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 312003Z - 312200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A very hot air mass will support scattered thunderstorms
across parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and evening.
Strong to severe gusts are possible. A WW is being considered.

DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible imagery and surface observations
showed increasing cumulus and thunderstorms along a surface wind
shift/cold front and over northeastern NM. Strong heating is
contributing to moderate destabilization (SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg)
from southwest OK, into the TX Panhandle and eastern NM on the
southwestern periphery of an upper trough progressing through the
Midwest. As weak ascent overspreads the warming air mass
thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity this afternoon,
moving off the higher terrain in NM and ahead of the cold front
farther east.

The surface air mass is very hot (100-105 F) and deeply mixed which
is supporting very steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km. Deep
inverted-v structures will encourage effect downdrafts with strong
to severe gusts possible with the most robust storms. Moderate
effective shear of 20-25 kt will support a multicell storm mode with
some clustering given the expected strength of the outflow.

The severe risk appears likely to focus east of the higher terrain
in NM with scattered severe storms. With time, some clustering would
spread east/southeastward into the western TX Panhandle with a
continued risk for strong to severe gusts as depicted by 12z CAMS.
More isolated storms may also develop and intensify along the wind
shift and weak cold front across the TX Panhandle and southwest OK.
Given the expected increase in storm coverage, a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is possible this afternoon.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4MKYwY4LJBb_U3qA44IMnjbKT5GvFzgi9yW1uNwvx-macmMjmAxslwqIKGPr6iTEJABlrnKuSQ1b5SEkn41rsAfBumo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33050110 33070239 33350430 34200503 35390506 35880497
36250453 36190382 35630259 35610249 35320063 35319933
35319881 35339848 35259800 35139759 34779751 34399756
33889790 33549839 33459858 33140046 33050110

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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