ACUS11 KWNS 312031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312030
COZ000-NMZ000-312230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312030Z - 312230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for damaging wind and hail this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across the high terrain in
central and eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico.
Instability is modest, but steep low to mid-level lapse rates and
sufficient deep layer shear should support some potential for a few
organized storms. Deeply mixed profiles, inverted-v profiles, and
steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support outflow dominate
storms with potential for damaging wind. A few instances of severe
hail will also be possible. Generally, this threat is expected to be
isolated and a watch is unlikely to be needed.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 07/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!567rMSdclE8K0Mjd5juedeKfsabf6TD4AlIVeZmANl2wzX0uwU_FQNibMMsQlmfPW7q_3t37yEbsjmQKCL9U_t2uVic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36380397 36330503 36550520 37900534 39590520 39790471
39760428 39620408 39290391 39060378 38680359 38440352
37400329 36820355 36380397

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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