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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1813

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, July 31, 2026 22:31:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 312230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312230
    MOZ000-ILZ000-010000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1813
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

    Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 536...

    Valid 312230Z - 010000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 536 continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts
    continues across portions of Tornado Watch 536.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along/ahead of a southeastward-progressing surface cold front and accompanying
    pre-frontal confluence zone over the past 1-2 hours in central
    Missouri. Continued northeasterly advection of higher theta-e air
    within the narrow warm sector is supporting MLCAPE values of
    1500-2500+ J/kg and 0-3 km CAPE of 100+ J/kg per latest
    mesoanalysis. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F, low LCLs,
    and a corridor of enhanced low-level shear (200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
    sampled by the LSX VWP) will continue to promote a risk for a
    tornado or two along with damaging wind gusts as convection
    progresses east-southeastward over the next 1-2 hours. The greatest
    potential is likely to accompany any storm that can favorably
    interact with a surface stationary/warm frontal boundary currently
    analyzed near the MO/IL border and the more backed surfaced winds
    noted in closer proximity to this boundary.

    ..Chalmers.. 07/31/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9SHLS-Ku0g_cI7zSmpVs2uAuKQdNfI6XsvepVvnYRCgGAWmkROVm3084k-ca_wG47RZCHkoWA5SuynM4dr-buZWdkVs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38249070 37699079 37349120 37219184 37289246 37539271
    38159302 38569303 38919293 39409270 39759243 39889201
    39859153 39689121 39319099 38669073 38249070

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)