ACUS11 KWNS 010410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010409
MOZ000-010615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 536...

Valid 010409Z - 010615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 536 continues.

SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado may
still be possible with an evolving storm northwest through north of
Poplar Bluff through midnight-1 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of the notable short wave trough digging
into the middle Mississippi Valley, lingering thunderstorm
development has been tending to spread east of a narrowing pre-cold
frontal instability axis supported by mid/upper 70s F surface dew
points. Even with surface dew points only gradually decreasing
through the lower 70s to the east of this axis, forecast soundings
indicate that CAPE becomes increasingly modest, with near-surface
buoyancy becoming negligible. As one strong cell, with an evolving
broad low-level cyclonic circulation, increasingly encountered this
environment to the east of the Farmington vicinity it has tended to substantively weaken. A trailing vigorous upstream cell seems
likely to do the same within the next hour or two, to the
west/southwest of Cape Girardeau. Until then though, some further intensification and organization might still be possible in the near
term to the northwest through north of Poplar Bluff, perhaps
accompanied by locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado.

..Kerr.. 08/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_YgAWmyinXneqA_YagnD3dvVMuJcd2ruB8qrZKYmwg19HVHObAsk21bGN7nmi6Myl0bVaUPVhQIChDjPwPNrRaTr6Uo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37449082 37519008 37128968 36639013 36719018 36649083
37279131 37449082

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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