ACUS11 KWNS 011857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011857
NMZ000-TXZ000-012100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011857Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage will increase through the
afternoon. A few storms could produce strong outflow wind gusts or
marginal hail. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
the 80s to low 90s across lower elevated in central/eastern NM early
this afternoon. Coupled with steep mid and low-level lapse rates,
modest destabilization has occurred, while inhibition continues to
erode. Low-level winds have largely become east/southeasterly in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. This is resulting in initial early
afternoon convection over higher terrain. Moderate northerly flow
aloft is supporting in sufficient vertical shear for loosely
organized cells.

This initial activity may be capable of small/marginally severe
hail, particularly across the northern half of the MCD area where
midlevel temperatures are cooler through the bulk of the elevated
instability layer. As storms track south with time across the hotter
and steep low-level lapse rates environment in lower elevations,
sporadic strong outflow gusts will be possible. Given the overall
marginal parameter space and transient nature of any stronger
updrafts, a watch is not currently expected.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 08/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-eppkHlLUXRLbnO7tf06fQSoODCUSqFR61qTmsZ7l_6z52RYizY1q3Voh_Xumd6FnoiDpW7Wj28ROqYkCRI5BYE6lII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 36410520 36720430 36640394 36020363 35190362 34570365
33800369 32720424 32260471 31980601 31980737 32020812
32220833 32740848 34720728 35230678 36410520

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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