ACUS11 KWNS 301731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301731
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-301930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern portions of Mississippi...Alabama...and
Georgia into northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301731Z - 301930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop
through the afternoon hours. Isolated instances of damaging winds
are probable given a favorable thermodynamic environment. However,
poor deep-layer wind shear will likely limit the overall coverage
and duration of severe thunderstorms and negate the need for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and MRMS mosaics depict the early
stages of deep convection across southern MS/AL with growing cumulus
also noted into southern GA and northern FL. This activity should
continue to grow in coverage and intensity in the coming hours as
surface temperatures continue to warm into the mid/upper 90s with a
very moist environment. Based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates,
MLCAPE values are increasing to 2000 J/kg, and should easily climb
to the 2500-3000 J/kg range by mid afternoon. Additionally,
low-level lapse rates will continue to steepen to near dry-adiabatic
within the lowest 1-2 km in the coming hours. Despite a favorable
thermodynamic environment for robust convection, regional VWPs and
high-res forecast soundings suggest deep-layer wind shear is very
weak across the region (20 knots or less).

Given these environmental parameters, the expectation is for
short-lived, outflow-dominant convection to expand in coverage
through the afternoon with an attendant threat for strong downbursts
capable of producing swaths of damaging winds (most likely peaking
in the 40-60 mph range). Some clustering appears possible and could
yield corridors of higher wind damage potential, but predictability
of when and where such clustering will occur appears limited at this
time. In general, the severe threat should be sufficiently transient
and isolated to preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Mosier.. 07/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5EEtN2TlslHM6Js__Cotm2CHqKibo9ZG3TQ9hXyJJMiLftv1Gbr1pwEBe53Az9ecQeggat6TQxoiYR-08G4MU-gs754$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30288701 30218783 30288837 30528904 30858953 31248977
31698971 31978937 32078872 31978802 31808712 31668528
31468171 31168136 30518133 30138124 29748116 29528105
29358113 29208147 29168195 29258269 29398308 29648347
29858398 29878426 29748452 29608472 29528503 29608523
29818549 30008581 30248628 30318657 30288701

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)