ACUS11 KWNS 301758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301757
NEZ000-SDZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...central South Dakota into northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 301757Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells to increase with potential for large hail and
damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway across central
South Dakota near a region of increasing mid-level ascent over
spreading the central/northern Plains. Behind morning convection,
clearing cloud cover has allowed for modest heating with
temperatures in the 80s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s F.
This has yielded MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear
around 20-30 kts and veering wind profiles will support supercell
modes and potential for large hail and damaging wind initially.
Through time, guidance suggests that clustering will occur with
increasing potential for damaging wind into the evening. A watch
will likely be needed this afternoon to address these potential
threats.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 07/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6vJ5XWz3ydsLyHoSsVXeTMG9R_QnL7nnG_g0p_KJWwFql02K5jiwZXm4fvBS0vAoKAkRlB3FEAypALqmCUzhxHx7vSw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42300164 43200188 43920250 44070252 44780249 45100223
45300135 45280070 44990004 44149967 43919969 42369922
41529970 41360079 41800148 42300164

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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