ACUS11 KWNS 302242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302241
NEZ000-SDZ000-302345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...much of central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

Valid 302241Z - 302345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
continues.

SUMMARY...A growing and organizing cluster of storms accompanied by
increasing potential to produce swaths of strong to severe wind
gusts appears probable through 7-9 PM CDT. Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch
east and south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development continues to gradually
grow upscale, with an expanding and strengthening surface cold
pool, which will continue to slowly advance south of the Winner SD,
Valentine and Ainsworth NE vicinities during the next few hours.
The most intense cell has generally been focused along the
southwestern flank of the outflow, where low-level convergence has
become enhanced near its intersection with a weak wind shift within
broader weak surface troughing. However, south-southeasterly
updraft inflow of seasonably high low-level moisture content (which
appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) may
support a broader area of intensifying convection into the 00-02Z
time frame.

Although deep-layer westerly mean flow is still modest (on the order
of 20 kt), due to pronounced veering of low through mid-level wind
fields, shear through the lowest 5-6 km is strong and may support
the evolution of an organizing cluster with increasing potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7dqC1RI9_D2Roa5T3Rkrtuj0VYB3ONLU-GTsilmdy9pseq5sQjnUzWw1Qc3-WWbPvTPZUsvUrmpTNjdCAGuzyt-sX-w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42080050 42419922 42929895 42889782 41609750 40949917
41010019 41870106 42080050

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)