ACUS11 KWNS 310245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310244
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-310445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Areas affected...southern/eastern Nebraska...adjacent southwestern
Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535...

Valid 310244Z - 310445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorms is likely to be
maintained at least several more hours while propagating
southeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley. Potential for
strong to severe surface gusts may still increase further. Trends
will continue to be monitored for the possibility of an additional
downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...Updraft inflow of seasonably high boundary-layer
moisture content supportive of large CAPE has contributed to the
maintenance of vigorous thunderstorm development, which continues to consolidate a bit along the leading edge of the southeastward
advancing surface cold pool. 2-hourly surface pressure rises on the
order of 2-3 mb have been evident in a narrow corridor now
approaching the Kearney, Hastings and perhaps Columbus vicinities.
An MCV remains fairly well-defined as it migrates across and
east-southeast of the Norfolk vicinity, with 50-60 kt northwesterly
rear-inflow evident to its southwest.

Due to relatively moist profiles with somewhat modest
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, downward mixing of this momentum
to the surface has been slowed. However, strong to severe gusts
reaching the surface could still continue to increase as peak
convective intensities are maintained at least a few more hours
while propagating southeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley.

..Kerr.. 07/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7h2P7Be9BC00NWRXTvaLJRLsflEeS4gvijuC1spUTFBoN55fiLJvm3NFW1uHXvFLu7aWEOB8K85QNmooFydp1jQ7aLg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 41379684 42199662 42159589 41059500 40289578 39829718
39749886 40269961 41379684

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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