ACUS11 KWNS 310607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310607
KSZ000-NEZ000-310700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1809
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...a small portion of northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 310607Z - 310700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional 60 to 70 mph wind gusts are possible for the
next hour.

DISCUSSION...Overall, a MCS moving across the central Plains is in
its weakening stage. However, a stronger outflow surge has occurred
across north-central Kansas with higher base reflectivity catching
the outflow boundary per UEX/TWX WSR-88D data. Measured wind gusts
of 64 mph, 61 mph, and 59 mph have occurred with this push within
Republic, Washington, and Marshall counties in northern Kansas. An
embedded supercell type structure apparent within the radar data,
combined with mid 70s F downstream dewpoints may allow this feature
to persist for the next hour with a continued 60 to 70 mph wind gust
threat. However, expect the overall threat to wane into the early
morning hours. Therefore, no severe thunderstorm watch is
anticipated.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ETalWHjYUw2DyW7EqACTa4zHhQ80RMYYqaxSnmI0U1X7e-rL379bNEpMUNdab1RUAS88zCeYuR9JK8jFs23d7bejHo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39819692 40009664 39949606 39899559 39579566 39389576
39319599 39629680 39819692

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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