ACUS11 KWNS 061957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061957
ARZ000-MOZ000-062130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...parts of southern Missouri and far northern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061957Z - 062130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to occasional severe storms along a
surface front/outflow boundary intersection may pose a risk for
isolated damaging gusts or hail. A WW currently appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1955 UTC, regional radar imagery showed
thunderstorms increasing in coverage and intensity across portions
of southern MO and the Ozark Plateau. The air mass ahead of these
storms has gradually warmed and destabilized in response to partial
clearing near a stalled surface front and outflow intersection from
prior convection. 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely support the
ongoing storms and additional development this afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm into the mid to upper 90s F. While
lapse rates are not all that steep, enhanced low-level convergence
and the moderate buoyancy could support some hail with the storms
along the front. Damaging gusts are also possible given the high
PWAT content (1.5-1.9 inches) and potential for downbursts.

The primary limiting factor is the small spatial extent of the more
unstable air mass and lack of stronger vertical shear. With area RAP
soundings showing effective shear on the order of 25-35 kt primarily
on the cool side of the boundary, storm organization is likely to be
transient and focused along the narrow frontal axis. This suggests
an overall isolated severe risk. Convective trends will be
monitored, but a watch is not currently anticipated.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_idnC1SUAM0qD0axbHI4_LcSdBC5XzzQFWXYSuLhCox3l0RSw9RJjHG343oV_xc5kuSYUK0SI8UxOj8VsFWw0O4mUGY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36119277 36109386 36399460 36789461 37519392 37899295
37769246 37549167 37319104 37119068 36979049 36679054
36429070 36259092 36119160 36119277

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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