ACUS11 KWNS 070356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070355
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-070600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into extreme
southwest KS/southeast CO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539...

Valid 070355Z - 070600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail may
spread southward through late evening into the early overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is moving slowly southward across
far southwest KS late this evening. The 00Z DDC sounding depicted a
favorable environment, with greater than 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
sufficient northwesterly flow aloft for 40+ kt of effective shear.
With a continued nocturnal increase in MLCINH expected, the
longevity of this cell may be limited. However, there have been some indications of backbuilding along the trailing outflow, and a threat
for strong to severe gusts and isolated hail could spread toward the
eastern OK Panhandle, if a small cluster can evolve with time.

Farther west, some modest clustering has been noted from extreme
southeast CO. These ongoing storms may struggle to become better
organized due to increasing CINH, but northerly mid/upper-level flow
a modest nocturnal low-level jet may help to sustain a southward
moving cluster into the northern TX Panhandle with time tonight.
Despite increasing near-surface stability, a remnant well-mixed
boundary layer will support potential for strong to severe gusts,
especially if more robust outflow can become established.

..Dean.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-9UiqqpE6xEQCIzP1apf4xBfRjVHAoI6Madp7JXA72KLkTXlDBhRo-pzC_eSnVxyMVWwTfTe09uavuA1d5c6K9TL4Fw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 36780292 36990275 37210215 37380126 37430038 36940005
36210011 35790063 35530122 35480180 35720269 36020293
36330296 36780292

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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