ACUS11 KWNS 070439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070439
KSZ000-OKZ000-070645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KS into far northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070439Z - 070645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage overnight, with at least
an isolated severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has begun to develop in the
vicinity of a low/midlevel cloud deck across eastern KS. Forecast
soundings from short-term guidance suggest the developing convection
is rooted around 700 mb, with steep midlevel lapse rates supporting
MUCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg. An increase in storm coverage is
expected overnight, within a persistent warm-advection regime.

Initial development may be somewhat disorganized, with effective
shear remaining relatively modest for convection rooted around 700
mb. However, the relatively favorable thermodynamic environment
could support isolated hail potential. If any convection can deepen
and become rooted below 700 mb, effective bulk shear and SRH will
increase (due to relatively backed flow below 3 km AGL), which could
lead to an uptick in storm organization. Should this occur,
development of a transient supercell or two and one or more small
clusters would be possible, posing a somewhat more organized severe
hail and wind threat.

Most 00Z HREF members and short-term guidance struggle to sustain
organized convection overnight, but still depict an uptick in strong
to locally severe gusts as storm coverage increases within the
favorable lapse rate environment. The need for watch issuance is
uncertain, but trends will be monitored for increasing
organized-severe potential.

..Dean/Mosier.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-qtGeUc5tTmbMAmGOqXvAh0HIlD9ShUhqcJpZHZr0gcsKGoetnowGLtUE6XuVU0WiIHAZvQWLPg7o2gDuxmbr2TIgec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36899753 39069772 39519767 39429615 38899561 38149524
37499531 37069561 36919604 36809681 36899753

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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