ACUS11 KWNS 071339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071339
KSZ000-OKZ000-071515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1849
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071339Z - 071515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe hail will continue for the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing on the backside of earlier
convection, aided by a a 35 kt LLJ (sampled by ICT VWP) and related
low-level warm-air advection. Steep midlevel lapse rates (per the
OUN 12Z sounding) atop a statically stable boundary layer are
contributing to sufficient elevated buoyancy for the continuation of
a few robust cells. This, combined with 40-50 kt of effective shear,
may continue to support transient organization and a risk of severe
hail over the next couple of hours. However, current expectations
are for a gradual weakening of the LLJ, which should limit the
duration of the severe risk.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_xRdAxuh5df9ftRzZoCfUxXlbXsqX7lTP0w0Utc03UtyHSQIw8r9W12Fov7BOn6LlBpzuWy_m1m0TqaeY6JpMwfZqPQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36759778 37029795 37459778 37999739 39049700 39199675
39259646 39219617 39009586 38339584 37559612 36979646
36529710 36519749 36759778

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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