ACUS11 KWNS 071651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071650 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-071915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071650Z - 071915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose an increasing risk of damaging
wind gusts over the next few hours. A watch is being considered for
parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage
across parts of central/eastern PA, focused within a zone of
low-level confluence. Over the next few hours, modest midlevel
height falls preceding a midlevel trough and continued diurnal
heating of a moist air mass will remove any remaining inhibition and
promote scattered thunderstorms. Around 20-30 kt of midlevel
southwesterly flow and moderate-strong surface-based
buoyancy/steepening low-level lapse rates will support loosely
organized clusters capable of producing scattered damaging wind
gusts through the afternoon. The greatest damaging-wind risk will
generally spread from west to east across the area this afternoon,
and a watch is being considered.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8NM4sEEG9seY85WhXIxz9_SUbyCFygSNluArTHETVrTnqVI-ZvvGyVpuOx8rLxR6d1sZvW-hSGEZKexe03rtHG4oAmc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39607796 41027586 41597528 41827480 41837436 41767405
41577371 41207352 40577378 40167421 39597515 38877669
38727744 38917790 39307817 39607796

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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