ACUS11 KWNS 071734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071733
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern IN...southern OH...and
northern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071733Z - 072000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally
damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. A watch is not currently
expected, though convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage
within a differential heating zone along the border of southeastern
IN and southwestern OH. Here, continued diurnal
heating/destabilization of a moist air mass will yield
moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy this afternoon. While
large-scale forcing for ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are not
particularly strong, around 35 kt of midlevel westerly flow (per ILN
VWP data) may still favor a few loosely organized multicells capable
of producing locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps sporadic
small/marginally severe hail. Current thinking is that the severe
risk will remain too marginal/localized for a watch, though
convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5qSNe_bwe-PDGUkd0P2hWIlNTh85RJ5r1a6hU_DVfEVejrlfpdpmDBR5ArGnto5f_hSsZmxl6xfla6Df9yucL9bLgJk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 38828619 39158630 39618619 39948571 40268434 40188349
39988281 39638227 39098210 38668227 38368267 38278317
38358411 38458482 38598564 38828619

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)