ACUS11 KWNS 072012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072011
MIZ000-WIZ000-072215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 072011Z - 072215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may develop across northern Wisconsin and
move into Upper Michigan later this afternoon. Large hail and
damaging gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows convection beginning to form
along the cold front as it moves into far northern WI and toward
southwestern parts of Lake Superior. While substantial high clouds
have overspread the warm sector, areas of heating exist, with
temperatures now into the low 80s F.

A special 18Z GRB sounding confirms steep lapse rates above the
capping inversion, with overall moderate instability. Deep-layer
shear is a bit marginal for supercells, but near 30 kt. Overall,
this setup should favor scattered cells/clusters, with periods of
hail and gusty winds. A supercell or two could produce hail at or
above golf ball size.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_iHcil0iEuIB0hoAjIWda91NBFSmd_ISz2BHKAM0MWVt6Hf8gOV7E0JMrc2ngbnlQdbaKLdBkFR_vMiciIGDdbhWBbM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 47468761 46988713 46558695 45988692 45518733 45188763
45008844 45168964 45739188 46239196 46619135 46809068
46878993 47498829 47468761

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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