ACUS11 KWNS 072158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072157
IAZ000-WIZ000-080000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 541...

Valid 072157Z - 080000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 541
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two
will continue into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...An intense storm cluster with a history of producing
brief tornadoes, large hail, and localized strong to severe gusts is
moving southeastward across eastern IA late this afternoon. Surface observations and objective mesoanalyses suggest this cluster will
begin to encounter weaker MLCAPE and greater MLCINH with time and
eastward extent, though given its current organization, some severe
threat may eventually spread east of WW 541.

The strongest lapse rates and buoyancy extend southwest of the
ongoing convection, with the 18Z OAX sounding depicting very steep
midlevel lapse rates and seasonably cool temperatures aloft. This
should allow for additional storm development along the trailing
front into central IA. While deep-layer flow weakens slightly with
southwest extent, effective shear of 30-40 kt in the presence of
3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor isolated supercell development
along the front, with an attendant threat of large to very large
hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two.

..Dean.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7QxZEnW9DNsnbh-okPB_gxwr5jXdvTN3CzbkqlGWXzhWWBAriWrm0Tvx4Mrg0uTVjrpmIkYgxOsjYEVbNrgm_2peKa8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42199429 42509251 42759148 42839123 42649083 42239042
41899048 41669097 41559201 41469295 41379377 41349434
41529456 42199429

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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