ACUS11 KWNS 072254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072253
MIZ000-WIZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...Northern WI into Upper MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542...

Valid 072253Z - 080100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated hail threat may continue into
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convection is ongoing from northern
WI into western Upper MI and Lake Superior, along/ahead of a cold
front. Earlier downstream heating has resulted in moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (locally higher) per
recent SPC objective mesoanalyses. Deep-layer shear is relatively
modest, though some enhancement to flow in the lowest 2 km (per VWPs
from KMQT) is resulting in effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2,
sufficient for at least modest storm organization.

A pocket of relatively steep lapse rates will favor continued
wind-damage potential from northeast WI into western/central Upper
MI through the early evening. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out
with the strongest embedded cells. The greatest storm coverage may
tend to remain across Upper MI, though additional development cannot
be ruled out across northern WI, north of an extensive cirrus shield
covering the bulk of the state.

..Dean.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-9ea_Wj1gKi3Bu5QL1-VKlxG98AP8Uz2W441h-HWzl0rrpa08J76pzjkHNegtlwkJRL6SM_IuEngM_edqBxAUISa1oM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 45939129 46818942 47668837 47958765 47808697 47228622
46628630 45948665 45628692 45258715 44998786 45148875
45288991 45619078 45939129

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)