ACUS11 KWNS 080000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072359
MOZ000-ARZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072359Z - 080130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening
across the area. The degree of instability will support at least an
isolated potential for large hail and damaging winds. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery and surface observations show a
well-defined mesoscale convective vortex near Miller County, MO,
moving east-southeast this evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms have developed along the periphery of this MCV,
particularly to the south and east, where the environment is very
unstable (MUCAPE values between 3000-4000 J/kg from SPC objective
analysis).

Modest surface convergence along various wind shift boundaries
associated with the MCV will continue to provide foci for additional thunderstorm development this evening. Despite effective-layer shear
remaining poor, the degree of instability, coupled with local
augmentation of the kinematic environment due to the MCV, should
result in at least some potential for large hail and damaging winds.


A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected given the anticipated
isolated nature of any severe potential.

..Marsh/Mosier.. 08/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_16xs2ZDVeK_VdkNVdQHZNeaSXeFiC4qtUBFJwL6L9Dy3Ss0QDotprTFu6v2Fb-m7pmd4dOmvL4dUdOme5sMdoji1GI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35849017 35439137 35419242 35579366 35859408 36519419
37159412 37649377 37969297 37969165 37789088 37559040
36588983 35849017

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)