ACUS11 KWNS 080149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080148
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-080315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Areas affected...South-central/southeast IA into adjacent parts of
northeast MO and northwest IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 541...

Valid 080148Z - 080315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 541
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue into the late
evening.

DISCUSSION...An isolated but persistent supercell is moving across
southeast IA this evening, within an environment characterized by
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer
shear for storm organization. Increasing CINH should eventually lead
to a weakening trend with this cell, but some threat for hail and
damaging wind may persist as the storm continues to propagate along
convective outflow and approaches the southeast edge of WW 541.

Additional storms have developed to the northwest of the ongoing
supercell. While these storms are likely somewhat elevated, steep
midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z OAX and DVN soundings)
will support potential for isolated hail with the strongest cells.

Farther west, isolated development cannot be ruled out along the
trailing cold front into south-central IA, but large-scale ascent is
generally weak, and the window of opportunity is decreasing with
onset of nocturnal cooling and increasing CINH. The environment
remains conditionally favorable in this area, if any storms can
develop through late evening.

..Dean.. 08/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8QKCxJkWrGMm30auId7lAOXKBrigJTT6qd7ln2cmkFtTiHUAppGd7BHSt5HVfiG63Y_al3s-j4MqWKH0WNHusCM3tEY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41629250 41089116 40559080 40279097 40299152 40629291
41059384 41429428 41639383 41779295 41629250

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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