ACUS11 KWNS 081711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081711
MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-081845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of southern New
England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 081711Z - 081845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely within the next 1-2
hours. The strongest storms will be capable of wind damage. Given
the expected scattered storm coverage a watch is possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Showers/towering cumulus have been deepening over the
past hour near Binghamton. With a modest shortwave trough in the
lower Great Lakes, the expectation is for this activity to continue
and intensify into the mid/late afternoon. Heating within
southeastern New York into southern New England will steepen
low-level lapse rates. Modest deep-layer shear will allow for some organization, though a cluster/linear mode will be most likely. The
strongest activity will be capable of wind damage. Trends in CAM
guidance continue to suggest this region will see greater
clustering/storm coverage. A watch is possible this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 08/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-6NJB6cxry8cPrG4Gg_2zSGYoudFuEshXJio0ylCOuYV85TuLoCsIm_X03THof8OIn9XlaA0B8igAJaVe7hyE5TpL2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 41827305 41657396 41657405 41457529 41397600 41747630
42167618 42777582 42967393 42907341 42727283 41997283
41827305

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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