ACUS11 KWNS 082153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082153
KSZ000-082330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1867
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082153Z - 082330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe gusts or perhaps some hail
may accompany any of the stronger storms that manage to sustain
themselves through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A lone multicellular cluster has matured over northern
KS in the past hour, likely driven by the intersection of a strongly heated/mixed boundary layer and weak surface convergence along a
baroclinic boundary. A belt of 15-20 kt southerly low-level flow is
in place across the Plains, overspread by 30+ kt 500 mb
northwesterlies, resulting in 40+ kts of effective bulk shear over
northern KS. The baroclinic boundary precedes the ongoing
multicellular cluster, where surface dewpoints exceed 70 F, yielding
over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Nonetheless, forcing for ascent is weak in
this region, casting great uncertainty on the coverage and overall
longevity of any severe threat. Current visible satellite does not
suggest any imminent threat for additional convective development in
the near term. Still, given adequate vertical wind shear and
instability, a conditional threat for a few severe gusts and perhaps
an instance of severe hail may accompany this multicellular cluster,
assuming it persists along the baroclinic boundary.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6SZMuhWrh6YSsetWarg919ly17YIt3SF_7mWuW6EGZJEvQ7JQbk19Xnp1zNPMXFrvQVK0Y8gC53LIZVkvjkIQ4tVwTg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 39129928 39579815 39849672 39799544 39419509 38919526
38759633 38759755 38699823 38709878 39129928

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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