ACUS11 KWNS 082211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082210
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-090015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082210Z - 090015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible for the next
couple of hours across parts of South Carolina and western/central
North Carolina. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly intensifying along the
Appalachians over the past 2-3 hours per regional radar imagery and
lightning trends. More recently, much of this activity has exhibited
strong outflow - a manifestation of the poor kinematic environment
(also confirmed by regional VWPs). Furthermore, west/southwesterly
mid-level flow is favoring storm motions along the zone of ascent,
which is limiting southeastward propagation into a more deeply-mixed
and buoyant air mass (characterized by 0-3 km lapse rates near 8
C/km and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE).

Nonetheless, some degree of storm propagation into the
well-mixed/buoyant air is probable as outflows surge
south/southeastward and collide. Convection developing within this
regime will be capable of produce strong downbursts with embedded
swaths of damaging winds (most likely 45-60 mph). Confidence in the
coverage and/or duration of intense convection is very limited and
precludes watch issuance, but a few instances of wind damage appear
possible over the next couple of hours prior to the onset of
nocturnal cooling after 00 UTC.

..Moore/Mosier.. 08/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8K0tu3XaBpuJhWMYcmJpL4EG1TU8zM2Q_IFzcs8kjIdhDjbGpchWKFX04_o0KUEnrkcubxodb0RKTtm_qV9YsfEwnhk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34968342 35508210 35808121 35868059 36018005 36197951
36347908 36267869 35997862 35757882 35527928 35198026
34648175 34578223 34558264 34588304 34648338 34838348
34968342

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)