ACUS11 KWNS 082244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082244
AZZ000-090015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082244Z - 090015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores
through the afternoon and evening hours. The severe threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated, and a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse cellular storms and multicellular
clusters have intensified over the past couple of hours as they
attempt to approach the lower terrain from the Mogollon Rim. As this
occurs, the storms will overspread a hot boundary layer,
characterized by surface temperatures over 100 F amid mid 50s F
dewpoints. Ample evaporative cooling potential exists, as shown by
22Z mesoanalysis, with 1500-2000 J/kg DCAPE in place. As such,
despite weaker vertical wind shear, a couple of the stronger storm
cores may produce dry downbursts capable of supporting severe gusts
through the afternoon and evening hours. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should stay somewhat sparse, precluding the need of a WW
issuance.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8MownbIHh6Ez35awrMz4qjrPBYVP57xp1eeKb_ba05AWnkDUonH8GSFPEhMu3hmxmwwM57-zMLRVQ8tXIkIVxuegtMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 34571333 34841258 34671140 34211081 33831052 33391046
33081077 32961148 33021230 33371300 34571333

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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