ACUS11 KWNS 090009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090008
NDZ000-SDZ000-090145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern North Dakota into
far northern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 090008Z - 090145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind/hail may occur with storms
that can mature over the next few hours. The severe threat should
remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms/possible LP supercells have
attempted to intensify over the past hour. The initial attempts at
stronger convection have produced outflow to the southwest, where
localized convergence is allowing for additional attempts at
initiation to occur. At the moment, it is unclear if these initial
storms will pose the primary threat for severe wind/hail, or if the
greater severe threat will manifest from later storms this evening
(per high-resolution guidance consensus). Uncertainty in convective
evolution is heightened further by the presence of smoke
overspreading the warm sector, which may inhibit convective
development and intensification.

Nonetheless, under the condition that a thunderstorm should
intensify further and become sustained, the presence of 1000-2500
J/kg MLCAPE amid 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear is adequate in
supporting supercell structures capable of producing severe wind and
hail (with an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail possible).

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ITQY9Dwr4Gi78UaEWsiUn6cg5ZOePewSOsmH6FJtCrpxuOw8wN_Ef_imLAAHW3qNxjRfG4b4eNci8dPRnVdS7Cz37g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45389890 45610075 45880151 46240181 46530175 46880032
46939926 46979814 46669765 46039748 45489768 45389890

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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