ACUS11 KWNS 091421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091420
WIZ000-ILZ000-091545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Portions of southern Wisconsin into far northern
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091420Z - 091545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An organized bowing structure, likely elevated at present
time, could become near surface based as it moves into southeastern
Wisconsin and adjacent northern Illinois. Wind damage would be the
main threat. A watch is possible should observational trends
warrant.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster has been moving southeastward
this morning. This activity has remained elevated thus far, but the
airmass ahead of it is slowly destabilizing. Dewpoints in northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin have increased over the past couple of
hours. The main limiter in terms of destabilization has been the
cloud cover/smoke that has reduced insolation. Based on forecast
soundings, if temperatures can reach the mid 70s F the storms will
be at least near surface based. Given the current organization of
ongoing convection, there may be an increase in damaging wind
potential over the next couple of hours. The need for a watch is
uncertain and will depend on observation trends.

..Wendt/Hart.. 08/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5TGBO3uKf9AIp0TZi88rNOd2I7nU3duvwMk_sDdGDdgJAhWy4yBUuC9Qjfehp3W0qJ1-xmDHD6BzbeRGLB8XVebzK9U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 42338865 42578899 43008959 43609043 43968955 43808901
43158779 42748767 42538767 42418772 42278830 42338865

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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