ACUS11 KWNS 091624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091624
MIZ000-INZ000-091800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1878
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern Lower Michigan into far northern
Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091624Z - 091800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for damaging winds will increase in northern Indiana
and southern Lower Michigan as a bowing segment moves
south-southeast into the afternoon. A watch is possible for portions
of these areas.

DISCUSSION...Dewpoints continue to increase ahead of a small bowing
cluster currently near Milwaukee. By the time this cluster crosses
southern Lake Michigan, temperatures in southeastern Lower
Michigan/far northern Indiana will be in the 80s F. Sufficient shear
and modest lift from a convectively enhanced perturbation should
allow this activity to move along the lifting theta-e gradient. Some
risk for damaging winds will likely accompany this bowing segment
into the afternoon. A watch is possible for portions of Lower
Michigan and northern Indiana.

..Wendt/Hart.. 08/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9YwmH5JMwyDb9AwY0j2VmtiQ5Nh05XJRyxjyzTiS29mcVFuwlQ_kiV04EKRSc-ezlx2HZB3pNbzUHrSZ7Pj6ZyJCcUE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 42278777 42948765 43318744 43008613 42678541 42138528
41648549 41448619 41678702 42278777

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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