ACUS11 KWNS 092241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092241
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into portions of western and
central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 092241Z - 100045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to increase in coverage and spread westward
this evening with potential for damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is increasing across potions
of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska over the last hour. The 18z
RAOB from LBF shows stout MLCIN in place, which is still depicted by
SPC mesoanalysis. However, with daytime heating CIN has weakened
across the Nebraska Panhandle where temperatures are in the mid to
upper 90s. Dew points in the 40s-50s F are contributing to large temperature/dew point spreads across the Nebraska Panhandle. Steep
low to mid-level lapse rates are also noted across the region.
Guidance is inconsistent with the evolution of storms out of
Wyoming, with some favoring a more organized cluster with damaging
wind potential and others favoring a weakening cluster with eastward propagation. This leads to low confidence in evolution and watch
potential at this time. Should a cluster evolve, damaging wind
potential (perhaps 75+ mph) would increase downstream. Trends will
be monitored and a watch may be possible.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 08/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8LW1hKnzxj-JJRkv_VE5-fQPjFQcuDM7h8NmkM0BPrBGXmlZo1aMgO3TocgpZad1nXx4DFUR7Mi6G2S2bMgRVj1NTo8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42779982 42950040 43080193 43070392 42970403 42440434
41940433 41340358 40400182 40400060 40959974 41979952
42729973 42779982

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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