ACUS11 KWNS 100101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100100
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-100300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549...

Valid 100100Z - 100300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds will continue for the next
2-3 hours across much of WW 549 in western Nebraska. However, the
most likely corridor for severe winds may emerge from the southern
Nebraska Panhandle into far northeast Colorado and far southwest
Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Recent echo top trends show deepening convective towers
as a broken band of convection continues to push east into a
reservoir of increasing MLCAPE. Downstream from this activity, the
recent 00 UTC LBF sounding sampled very steep (8.7 C/km) mid-level
lapse rates that are conducive for robust updrafts. However, warm
temperatures between 850-700 mb are also yielding MLCIN on the order
of -300 to -350 J/kg. Mixed-layer LFCs were estimated to be around 4
km, suggesting that a substantially deep cold pool will likely be
needed to continue lifting parcels through the stable layer and
maintain intensity of the line.

Based on regional velocity/reflectivity data, it appears that such a
cold pool is in the process of being established, but may not yet be sufficiently deep to maintain all portions of the line. Based on
recent mesoanalysis estimates, MLCIN increases with eastward extent
into central NE, but remains somewhat more modest across southwest
NE, suggesting that the southern flank of the line may be favored
for maintenance and/or further intensification over the next few
hours. Given that this band has already produced measured gusts on
the order of 55-65 mph, similar wind speeds appear possible for the
short term (next hour or so), and may persist for the next few hours
across southwest NE and far northeast CO.

..Moore.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8X0Vk3um-euIHf8PP_SttnTfcS-aXXlukRXnkUKcF8czS5tMZms5P2EvyPO4JwRV9z0VZwlWvtJYeaNtCuAN2PPKPkY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41080359 41890303 42310271 42350234 41920027 41490018
41100019 40680056 40190115 40010166 39980210 40110259
40920347 41080359

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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