ACUS11 KWNS 100329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100329
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-100530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Far northeast Colorado...southwest Nebraska...and
far northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549...

Valid 100329Z - 100530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe wind will continue across portions
of far northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska for the next couple
of hours. There is some potential for a continuation of severe winds
into portions of far northwest Kansas later tonight, but confidence
in this threat is limited.

DISCUSSION...Over the past two hours, convection within a loosely
organized band of storms has largely evolved as expected with the
strongest cores now residing in far northeast CO - largely owing to
the effects of increasing inhibition with eastward extent towards
the North Platte, NE area. Despite this contraction in the band,
latest echo top and GOES IR trends continue to show robust updraft
development within the remaining cluster, suggesting that the
near-storm environment across northeast CO/southwest NE remains
supportive for intense convection. Additionally, KGLD velocity
imagery shows hints of an emerging outflow surge, suggesting that
this cluster will continue to pose a threat for severe wind, and
perhaps transient hail, for the next hour or two as it continues to
migrate across a relatively buoyant environment.

Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS both suggest that this cluster will
continue to intensify with an expanding wind field through roughly
05-07 UTC as it spreads into southwest NE and far northwest KS.
However, both of these solutions have been depicting broad cold
pools with temperatures in the 65-70 F range. Surface observations
have mostly been reporting cold pool temperatures in the 70-75 F
range, suggesting that the modeled cold pools may be too
deep/intense compared to reality. Consequently, this casts
uncertainty on how widespread and intense the wind threat will be
beyond the next 1-2 hours.

Nonetheless, the downstream environment into northwest KS features
only weak/shallow capping and MLCAPE values of around 2500 J/kg,
which may support at least an isolated severe wind threat beyond WW
549. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and downstream
watch issuance is possible.

..Moore.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9bJUiw9IYxaGt8p2tF8QwMJZQjzF-nBOqDDb0olG-jxyAnaAvAwULbhc24kCRKvtG665NVqi0nHCiOJy1DJ0ddUwCf4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40760281 41040275 41190247 41290206 41030157 40650089
40349971 40109956 39869953 39649978 39530006 39480050
39450109 39550165 39680207 39930233 40190262 40500275
40760281

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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