ACUS11 KWNS 101241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101241
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-101445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Ohio into northwestern
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 101241Z - 101445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small organizing cluster may impact the I-80 corridor of northeastern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania through 10 AM to
noon EDT, accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and gusty
winds. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed in the
near term, but potential for stronger, more damaging gusts could
increase later this morning, and trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation has become
better defined within a cluster of storms at least initially rooted
above a shallow stable boundary layer. Strong convection has become
focused in a short narrow corridor to the east/southeast of this
circulation, which is approaching the Greater Cleveland vicinity.

Based on recent acceleration in forward (eastward) propagation in
excess of 30 kt, the convective system appears likely to track
across the I-80 corridor into northwestern Pennsylvania between
Franklin and Du Bois by 14-16Z. However, the boundary-layer across
this region remains relatively stable, and this may only gradually
begin to destabilize over the next few hours. Westerly ambient mean
flow in the lower to mid-troposphere also remains relatively modest,
on the order of 20-30 kt, so the extent to which potentially
damaging wind gusts increases in the near term remains unclear.

..Kerr/Smith.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8LpNSUM7nj53B5bQKmTnteEMz5didQ9ILEau3wdgobnzJ6fnHDvJhjVDUA3wezqnTkaigWwlsbVwp8mbg1RWh2WLkGE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 42068134 42087944 41327847 40707942 40758153 40928200
41488156 42068134

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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