Forum: KrAABy Gamer BBS

DAY2SVR: Day 2 Convective Outlook

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 16, 2026 17:26:38

ACUS02 KWNS 161726
SWODY2
SPC AC 161724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The majority of the CONUS will be dominated by a cool/dry air mass
with no potential for deep convection in the wake of a cold frontal
passage off the southeast Atlantic coast. One exception will be
across central/south FL where moist profiles (PW greater than 2
inches) and ascent along the cold front will support scattered
thunderstorms. A second possible exception will be across the
Desert Southwest as midlevel moisture and ascent increase gradually
near and east of a weak closed low over northern Baja. Buoyancy
rooted in the midlevels will be weak but could become sufficiently
deep for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes the latter
half of the period.

..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 17, 2026 05:47:46

ACUS02 KWNS 170547
SWODY2
SPC AC 170545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. while a 500 mb
cut-off low meanders off of the Atlantic Coast and broad upper
troughing dominates the western CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A
relatively cool and stable low-level airmass will overspread much of
the CONUS, inhibiting thunderstorm development. A few thunderstorms
may occur over the southern FL Peninsula, where the heating of
remnant low-level moisture will promote localized lift and buoyancy.
A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over portions of the
Desert Southwest, where cooler temperatures aloft and modest ascent
will accompany a weak mid-level impulse.

..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 17, 2026 17:01:52

ACUS02 KWNS 171701
SWODY2
SPC AC 171659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move east across central Canada on
Sunday, with a weak upper ridge over the central/southern Plains.
This ridge will be flanked by an upper low off the coastal
Carolinas, and a weak positive-tilt wave moving from northern Baja
CA into AZ.

At the surface, a prominent high will extend from New England all
the way into the southern Plains, with offshore winds across the
Gulf and East Coast. This will maintain a stable pattern over most
of the CONUS. The exceptions will be over AZ and far southern FL.

For AZ, midlevel moisture will stream northward ahead of the
shortwave trough. Cool midlevel temperatures may yield a few
thunderstorms during the day.

For southern FL, a northeast surface flow regime will maintain a
moist and marginally unstable air mass, and the high PWAT
environment should support a few thunderstorms moving southwestward
across the area.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 18, 2026 05:52:48

ACUS02 KWNS 180552
SWODY2
SPC AC 180550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the East
Coast while an upper trough amplifies over the western U.S. and an
upper ridge dominates the central CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface
high pressure and accompanying subsidence should limit thunderstorm
development over most locales east of the Rockies. A couple of
thunderstorms may develop over the FL Keys given adequate surface
heating of a moist low-level airmass. A few thunderstorms may also
occur over the Desert Southwest to the Four Corners, where cooler
temperatures aloft with a mid-level impulse overspreads modest
low-level moisture.

..Squitieri.. 10/18/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 18, 2026 16:59:54

ACUS02 KWNS 181659
SWODY2
SPC AC 181658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will linger off the East Coast while an upper trough
amplifies just off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a leading wave will
affect the area from Baja CA into the Four Corners states.

Instability will be minimal over most of the CONUS due to an area of
high pressure, with the surface ridge extending from the Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast. The exceptions will be near
the FL Keys where moist easterly winds will persist, supporting
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and over AZ and NM, where
midlevel moisture will support weak instability. In either case,
severe weather is not anticipated due to weak instability.

..Jewell.. 10/18/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, October 19, 2026 05:35:58

ACUS02 KWNS 190535
SWODY2
SPC AC 190533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will deepen along the West Coast on Tuesday,
resulting in a broad low-level mass response with a return flow of
low-level moisture across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin
and central High Plains regions. Deep-layer ascent associated with
this broad axis of low-level moisture will result in at least widely
scattered thunderstorm development through the day across the Great
Basin into the Desert Southwest and High Plains. A couple instances
of strong surface wind gusts may accompany thunderstorms in the
Lower Colorado River Basin given stronger flow fields aloft. At the
moment though, buoyancy appears too limited to support an organized
severe gust threat, so severe probabilities have been withheld this
outlook. By later Tuesday night, cooler mid-level temperatures
associated with the upper trough will overspread a marine boundary
layer along the CA coastline, promoting thunderstorm chances here as
well.

..Squitieri.. 10/19/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, October 19, 2026 17:17:20

ACUS02 KWNS 191715
SWODY2
SPC AC 191714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A few strong storms
may affect parts of Arizona late Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will extend from eastern Canada southwestward to the
Gulf of America on Tuesday, maintaining stable conditions over most
of the central and eastern states on Tuesday. Farther west, a deep
upper trough will exist just off the West Coast, with increasing
southwest winds aloft from CA into UT and AZ.

Strong daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorms from the
Great Basin into AZ, though an inversion above 500 mb should
minimize updraft strength.

A greater chance of possibly strong thunderstorms may develop
overnight into AZ as temperatures aloft cool, and, winds increase
out of the south. This enhanced upslope may support additional
storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim, and shear will be
stronger at that time. Instability may only be marginally
supportive, with the greater risk developing after 12Z Wednesday
morning.

..Jewell.. 10/19/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 06:00:44

ACUS02 KWNS 200600
SWODY2
SPC AC 200558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado may occur over portions of
Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move ashore through the day Wednesday,
promoting large-scale ascent of a moistening airmass across the
Desert Southwest to the Four Corners region. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected over these regions, and given the anticipated overlap
of marginal to moderate buoyancy with a highly sheared airmass, a
few severe thunderstorms are possible.

...Desert Southwest to the Four Corners...
Marginal instability should develop through the day, primarily
driven by increasing low-level warm-air and moisture advection
(given ample cloud cover expected). Surface dewpoints should
increase into the 60s F, especially over central AZ, yielding over
1500 J/kg MLCAPE given 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. A 50-70 kt
southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread the warm sector and
accompanying southeasterly antecedent flow, yielding elongated
hodographs with sizeable low-level curvature. Supercell
thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon, accompanied by a
severe wind and hail threat. Given the size of the low-level
hodographs, a tornado or two may also occur.

...Central to southern CA Shoreline...
The core of an 80 kt 500 mb jet will overspread central and southern
CA during the later half of the period (00-12Z Thursday), resulting
in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs. During this
time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect to the CA shoreline
while being overspread by 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding
250-500 J/kg of short and thin MLCAPE. Given the scant buoyancy,
convection should be low-topped, with short line segments and
supercell modes possible. A damaging gust or two is the main threat
with any stronger storm that can reach the shore, as well as a
landfalling waterspout.

..Squitieri.. 10/20/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 17:56:04

ACUS02 KWNS 201755
SWODY2
SPC AC 201754

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including large hail and tornado risks are
expected on Wednesday especially across Arizona and nearby parts of
the Four Corners area and Lower Colorado River Valley. A localized
severe risk may also exist along the coast of central/southern
California.

...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley/Four Corners...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, including the
potential for a full-period/multi-round of severe weather for some
areas. A climatologically rare and a concerning/well-above-typical
risk for severe storms is expected, potentially including all severe
hazards with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible.

Ahead of a prominent/deep upper trough approaching the California
coast, this scenario is attributable to a notable strengthening of
deep-layer winds (southwesterly above the boundary layer), along
with relatively rich low/mid-level moisture. The severe risk should
tend to peak in most areas during the afternoon and evening, but it
should be noted that the severe risk, particularly for parts of central/northern Arizona, may persist well through the late-night
hours of Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Broadly speaking, there is relatively high confidence that wind
profiles, with elongated/semi-straight hodographs, combined with
expected destabilization (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support sustained/splitting supercells with viable large hail potential
particularly with rotating storms, including both right-moving and
left-moving (generally moving northward) supercell-splitting
components. Hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter may locally
occur.

Forecast soundings imply that storms will be a bit higher based with south-southeastward extent across the desert floor, but lower temperature-dewpoint spreads farther north closer to/in the rim and
more forested areas of central/northern Arizona, which also
coincides where more of a southeasterly boundary layer wind
component may exist, boosting low-level hodograph curvature/SRH and contributing to tornado potential particularly across interior
central Arizona and a broader part of northern Arizona, and possibly
even into nearby southeast Nevada and/or far southern Utah.

...Coastal southern/central California...
In closer proximity to the approaching upper low, the core of an 80
kt 500 mb jet will overspread central and southern California during
the later half of the period (00-12Z late Wednesday and Thursday),
resulting in relatively straight but highly elongated hodographs.
During this time frame, a moist marine airmass will advect into
coastal areas, while being overspread by 6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse
rates, yielding 250-500 J/kg of short and thin MLCAPE. Given the
scant buoyancy, convection should be low-topped, with short line
segments and brief/transient supercell modes possible. A few
damaging wind gusts are the main threat with any stronger storm that
can reach the shore, but near-coastal waterspout/brief tornado
potential may also exist.

..Guyer.. 10/20/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 05:49:54

ACUS02 KWNS 210549
SWODY2
SPC AC 210547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and
Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts
of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad longwave mid-level trough will traverse the western CONUS on
Thursday, encouraging continued deep-layer ascent amid the northward
advection of low-level moisture, promoting scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development. At least isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible spanning the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin given
overlapping marginal buoyancy and widespread strong wind fields
aloft. However, across portions of the Desert Southwest, an embedded
mid-level impulse accompanied by a 500 mb speed max atop locally
higher low-level moisture/instability may promote a more focused
risk of severe thunderstorms.

...Desert Southwest into the Great Basin...
Deep-layer ascent, combined with at least some degree of surface
heating ahead of the broader upper trough, will support scattered
thunderstorm development over the Great Basin during the afternoon.
Largely unidirectional (southerly) tropospheric flow will yield
highly elongated, straight hodographs and over 50 kts of effective
bulk (speed) shear. Given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and around
500 J/kg MLCAPE, transient supercells and small line segments will
be the main storm modes, accompanied by an isolated severe gust/hail
threat.

Farther south into central AZ to far western NM, a 70+ kt 500 mb
southwesterly speed max with 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will
overspread southeasterly low-level flow and low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints. This ambient environment, as shown by forecast soundings,
will yield modestly elongated hodographs, but with appreciable size
and curvature at the low-levels. Given locally higher moisture, up
to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be realized in tandem with 50+ kts of
effective bulk shear and over 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH. While CAM
guidance consensus depicts a complex storm mode and several
potential cellular interactions, longer-lived, embedded supercell
structures are possible. Should such storms develop, all severe
hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes.

..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 17:32:02

ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and
Four Corners area on Thursday, with the greatest risk across parts
of Arizona. All severe hazards will be possible.

...Synopsis...
An broad upper trough with an embedded upper low off the southern
California coast will move eastward on Thursday. This feature will
become more of an open wave with a modest negative tilt with time.
Above normal low-level moisture will be in place within the
Southwest. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected, some
of which may be strong to severe.

...Southwest into parts of the Great Basin...
Strong meridional flow associated with the approaching upper-trough
will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest through the
day. Moisture/destabilization will be more limited with
northward/eastward extent. Some convection will be possible early in
the period across much of the region. Depending on where pockets of
greater heating can occur, widely scattered to scattered storms are
expected to develop during the afternoon both within the terrain and
along a surface trough within the central Great Basin. Isolated
marginally severe hail and severe winds will be the primary
concerns. The potential for a tornado will increase within southern
Utah into Arizona where surface flow will be more backed greater destabilization is more probable.

With the upper-trough becoming more of an open wave with time, the
most favorable overlap of mid-level ascent, surface heating, and
steeper mid-level lapse rates will be across parts of southeast
Arizona. Storms will likely be supercellular initially. Large hail
(perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of tornadoes will be the
main concern. With time, storm interactions and an increasing linear
mode will mean a transition to more a wind threat by later in the
afternoon. Destabilization from the Mogollon Rim northward becomes
more uncertain given the signal for early clouds/precipitation.

...Coastal Southern California...
As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon,
temperatures aloft will become quite cold (around -20C at 500 mb).
Modest surface heating will lead to around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE,
potentially. Low-topped convection near the coast is possible during
the morning into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins
to decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and
local terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the
strongest storms along with isolated wind damage potential.

..Wendt.. 10/21/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 06:03:14

ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will slowly progress over the Rockies on
Friday, with a lead mid-level impulse poised to eject into the
northern Plains while a lagging 500 mb cut-off low drifts eastward
across the Desert Southwest. Given adequate low-level moisture
return and deep-layer ascent ahead of the longwave mid-level trough, thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Rockies and the
central to northern Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible across portions of NM, where locally greater moisture and
instability reside.

...Western into central New Mexico...
As the aforementioned leading mid-level impulse departs the Rockies
and the cut-off low approaches NM, 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow
will overspread the Desert Southwest, where low to mid 50s F surface
dewpoints amid southeasterly surface flow will be in place. Given
7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may
manifest amid appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, with
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. By afternoon,
thunderstorms should develop and intensify with diurnal heating.
Given the aforementioned vertical shear/buoyancy, some supercell
structures should develop, accompanied by an isolated severe
wind/hail threat, and a tornado is also possible.

..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 22, 2026 17:32:16

ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend across much of the
western CONUS early Friday morning. Several shortwave troughs will
be embedded within the larger scale troughing, including one moving northeastward across the eastern Great Basin towards western WY, one
moving through the base of the parent trough across southern CA and
another dropping quickly southward across the Sierra toward central
and southern CA. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward through western WY and eastern MT before interacting
with an intensifying shortwave trough moving across the Canadian
Prairies. Evolution and interaction between the southernmost
shortwaves is expected to yield a closed cyclone centered over the
Lower CO Valley by early Saturday morning.

This overall evolution will foster a persistence of the deep
southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central
Rockies into the northern Plains. The overall troughing will have a
slight positive tilt, but the mean eastward shift will foster modest
height falls during the afternoon and evening across the Southwest.
These height falls, and associated southerly low-level flow, will
support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across NM, including the
potential for some strong to severe storms. Additional thunderstorms
appear likely near the embedded cold core as it moves across the
northern Intermountain West, and within a band of warm-air advection
farther east across the Upper MS Valley.

...New Mexico...
As mentioned in the synopsis, deep southwesterly flow is forecast to
persist across the NM throughout the period. At the same time, a
seasonably moist airmass will advect northward in the region.
Uncertainty exists regarding potential heating and mixing of this
moistening airmass, with some guidance notably more cloudy and less
mixed. Current expectation is for the greatest potential for heating
and mixing to remain over southern portions of the state, with more
clouds and less heating with northern extent.

Even with this limited heating, moist low to mid-levels and cool
mid-level temperatures will still support modest buoyancy across northern/central NM, beginning early Friday morning. Multiple rounds
of thunderstorms are possible across this region, with the
combination of modest buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear
supportive of organized updrafts. Hail will be the primary risk,
with isolated strong gusts possible as well. Given the potential for
supercells and moist low-levels, a low-probability tornado risk
exists as well.

Stronger heating and warmer temperatures appear more likely farther
south, which will combine with greater low-level moisture support
greater overall buoyancy and a relatively higher chance for
organized updrafts capable of large hail and strong gusts. Some
questions exist on how much low-level moisture will be in place
(i.e. low 50s dewpoints vs. upper 50s/low 60s), but the higher
dewpoint solutions suggest overall profiles supportive of very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2"+) and tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 10/22/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 23, 2026 05:35:38

ACUS02 KWNS 230535
SWODY2
SPC AC 230533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of
central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.

...NM into southwest TX vicinity...

Strong upper ridging across the MS Valley will prevent much eastward-advancement of the upper cyclone over AZ. As a result, a
belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will persist from
eastern AZ into NM. At the surface, lower pressure will be oriented
across southern AZ and southwest NM while surface high pressure
builds across the northern/central Plains in the wake of a surface
cold front. As a result of the increased surface pressure gradient
across the southern Rockies, southeasterly low-level winds will transport/maintain modest boundary layer moisture across
central/eastern NM and western TX. Modest destabilization, and large
scale ascent overspreading the region ahead of the upper cyclone,
will support thunderstorm development by early to mid-afternoon.

Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing in speed with height,
will result in supercell wind profiles and elongated hodographs.
Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (to around 7 C/km), with
cool 500 mb temperatures around -10 to -13 C noted in regional
forecast soundings. This will result in mainly a large hail risk.
However, given stronger midlevel flow and somewhat fast storm motion
(40 kt or so), some risk for strong gusts also will be possible
where stronger heating occurs. While boundary layer moisture will
remain modest (generally 50s F dewpoints max), some risk for a
tornado is possible given favorable low-level shear. This risk will
likely be focused further south across south-central NM into Far
West TX where instability and surface heating may be maximized.

..Leitman.. 10/23/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 23, 2026 17:45:58

ACUS02 KWNS 231745
SWODY2
SPC AC 231744

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas on Saturday.

...New Mexico and far west/southwest Texas...
A low-latitude/southern-stream trough currently centered over
southern California and the Great Basin will continue slowly
eastward through Saturday primarily over the lower Colorado River
valley and Arizona. Relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft will
extend eastward across New Mexico and west/southwest Texas with weak
height falls overspreading a moist air mass, which will be enhanced
by gradually strengthening south-southeast winds in the lowest 1-2
km AGL.

Initial storm intensification including some severe risk could occur
relatively early in the day across the Four Corners area and
northern New Mexico, with somewhat later diurnally aided development
across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Vertically veering
wind profiles, increasing in speed with height,
will result in supercell wind profiles and elongated hodographs,
including some modest low-level hodograph curvature attributable to strengthening low-level southeasterly winds. Large hail will be
possible regionally, with larger hail magnitudes more probable in
the greater instability reservoir across southern New Mexico and far
west Texas. Some tornado risk will exist as well given the
aforementioned wind profiles and relatively moist environment.
Strong mid-level flow and somewhat fast storm motions (35+ kt or so)
could also yield locally damaging wind gusts.

..Guyer.. 10/23/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 24, 2026 05:22:04

ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for
hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and
far west Texas.

...Southern/Eastern NM into Southwest TX...

The upper cyclone and attendant trough over UT/AZ early Sunday will
weaken as it lifts northeast toward the central Plains through early
Monday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper
flow will persist across portions of the southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a stalled surface boundary is
forecast from central NM northeastward into the central Plains.
Southeasterly low-level flow on the warm side of the boundary will
maintain 50s F dewpoints across the region.

Cloudiness and possibly ongoing showers/thunderstorms early in the
period lend to uncertainty regarding degree of daytime heating and
thus, destabilization. Nevertheless, modest instability is expected
amid vertically veering/supercell wind profiles. Elongated
hodographs and cool temperatures near -10 to -12 C at 500 mb suggest
isolated hail will be possible with strongest storms.

..Leitman.. 10/24/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 24, 2026 17:26:00

ACUS02 KWNS 241725
SWODY2
SPC AC 241723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and an isolated tornado will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across southern/eastern New Mexico and far west
Texas.

...Eastern NM to far west TX...
In advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest, a midlevel
shortwave trough will eject northeastward over the Four Corners and
begin to weaken slowly. Height falls with the ejecting trough will
brush the northwest side of a persistent plume of low-midlevel
moisture over NM, along a slow-moving, northeast-southwest oriented
baroclinic zone. Ascent along the baroclinic zone, in conjunction
with surface heating in occasional cloud breaks and local terrain
circulations, will support scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon from far west TX into eastern NM.

Midlevel lapse rates will be steeper closer to the ejecting midlevel
wave (northwest of the surface warm sector), and more limited within
the warm sector as a result of relatively widespread convection the
past few days. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F will be
enough for MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg despite muted surface heating with
clouds. Vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some
supercell potential. Isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter)
will be the main threat, though low-level moisture and hodograph
curvature suggest that an isolated tornado will also be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur early Sunday morning near the
OR coast with low-topped convection as he midlevel cold core
approaches. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across
southeast FL in the moist northeasterly flow around the western
periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas.

..Thompson.. 10/24/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 25, 2026 05:04:46

ACUS02 KWNS 250504
SWODY2
SPC AC 250502

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough initially over the southern/central High
Plains, will lift northeast to the Upper Midwest on Monday into
early Tuesday. Large-scale upper troughing will persist across the
western U.S. as a deepening cyclone and attendant shortwave trough
deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and Intermountain
West. Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer
moisture across the southern Plains vicinity ahead of a cold front
progressing south/southeast across the central Plains and Mid-MO
Valley.

Modest destabilization is forecast from southwest TX,
southern/eastern NM, portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far
southwest KS. Isolated thunderstorms may develop toward late
afternoon through evening. Effective shear around 25-30 kt could
support transient storm organization, but southwest flow below 500
mb is forecast to remain fairly weak. Furthermore, warmer midlevel
temperatures may hinder stronger updrafts despite modest
instability. While the strongest storms could produce small hail,
overall severe potential appears limited, precluding Level
1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Leitman.. 10/25/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, October 25, 2026 19:18:14

ACUS02 KWNS 251734
SWODY2
SPC AC 251732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing over the western half of the CONUS will continue
Monday as the primary shortwave trough, initially over the
southern/central High Plains lifts northeast to the Upper Midwest.
An intensifying upper-level cyclone and attendant shortwave trough
will deepen and spread southeast over the Great Basin and
Intermountain West as several weaker perturbations move through the
Southwest and southern Plains. A weak surface low will develop and
track northeastward into the Midwest with the primary shortwave. A
weak lee trough will support modest southerly low-level flow
maintaining boundary layer moisture ahead of a slow-moving cold
front across the central and southern Plains.

...Rio Grande Valley...
Modest destabilization is forecast ahead of the weak surface
trough/cold front from southwest TX and southern/eastern NM, into
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, and far southwest KS. Surface
dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F amid diurnal heating ahead of
the front should allow for modest destabilization Monday afternoon.
The front and lee trough should serve a focus for convective
development, with isolated thunderstorms forecast to toward late
afternoon into the evening, with additional warm advection storms
possible over the Midwest overnight. Buoyancy should be generally
weak (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) amidst modest mid-level flow and bulk shear
(20-25 kt). Locally greater buoyancy and storm coverage across
Southwest TX and southern NM could support a stronger storm or two
during the afternoon with sporadic damaging gusts or isolated hail
not entirely impossible. However, the weak buoyancy along with poor
mid-level lapse rates should limit overall storm intensity.

...Northern Rockies...
The upper cyclone, initially over eastern WA/OR will move into the
northern Rockies accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft. Low and
mid-level lapse rates should steepen in response to the strong
ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures (-20 to -25 C). Despite
meager moisture, weak instability may develop across parts of ID in
the afternoon supporting isolated thunderstorms. While a stray
strong gust or small hail cannot be ruled out owing to the
increasingly strong upper-level wind fields, cool surface
temperatures and weak buoyancy should preclude any organized severe
risk.

..Lyons.. 10/25/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, October 26, 2026 05:14:46

ACUS02 KWNS 260514
SWODY2
SPC AC 260512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A series of upper shortwave troughs will move across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as the southern Plains to the
Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. Boundary layer moisture will remain
modest, with dewpoints generally in the 50s across the Plains and
Midwest, while 60s dewpoints remain confined to central/south TX.
Warmer midlevel temperatures will preclude much destabilization from
the Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. This will largely
limit thunderstorm activity and negate severe thunderstorm potential
despite stronger southwesterly flow aloft. Further south across TX,
isolated thunderstorms are more likely where weak destabilization
will occur amid marginally better moisture and stronger heating.
However, vertical shear will remain modest as the region is
displaced to the south of stronger flow across the north-central
U.S. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous within a broad
low-level warm advection regime. Overall, severe thunderstorm
potential appears low for Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 10/26/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, October 26, 2026 17:13:44

ACUS02 KWNS 261713
SWODY2
SPC AC 261711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will encompass the synoptic-scale pattern over
most of the CONUS on Tuesday, with multiple embedded impulses
expected to traverse the central and northern U.S. through the
period. Surface high pressure and associated subsidence should limit thunderstorm development over most of the Interior West and eastern
U.S. However, surface troughing and modest low-level moisture return
across the Great Plains may encourage isolated thunderstorm
development within a warm-air advection regime. Given the lack of
stronger vertical wind shear across the Plains, the chances of any thunderstorms becoming severe currently appears low.

..Squitieri.. 10/26/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 05:22:38

ACUS02 KWNS 270522
SWODY2
SPC AC 270520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley...

A midlevel trough will move from the High Plains to the Upper MS
Valley on Wednesday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper
southwesterly flow across the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley atop
modestly increasing boundary layer moisture. Vertically veering wind
profiles and effective shear values greater than 35 kt typically
could support supercell thunderstorms. However, surface-based
thunderstorm develop appears quite conditional. Surface dewpoints in
the 50s to near 60 F will be possible ahead of a surface boundary
from southern MN into western IA and far eastern NE. Cool
temperatures atop the modest boundary layer moisture will support
MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Near neutral height tendencies are
expected, and forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates
and possible inhibition in layers between the surface and 750 mb.
Furthermore, 00z HRRR/RRFS and HREF/REFS do not show a robust signal
for sustained convection within the more favorable warm sector.
While elevated storms could pose a risk for small hail, the overall
risk appears limited in the absence of surface-based storms,
precluding severe probabilities at this time. Depending on trends, probabilities could be included in subsequent outlooks.

...Far SW TX vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms may develop near higher terrain within a
modest upslope flow and low-level warm advection regime late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Surface dewpoints in the
mid/upper 50s will aid in modest destabilization as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s/low 80s F. Deep-layer flow is expected to be
weak, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-25 kt
effective shear magnitudes. A couple of storm could briefly become
strong and produce gusty winds given steepened low-level lapse rates
or small hail. Overall, severe potential appears too limited to
include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 10/27/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 17:32:38

ACUS02 KWNS 271732
SWODY2
SPC AC 271730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will encompass the upper air pattern over
much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with a pronounced embedded impulse
poised to traverse the northern Plains and impinge on the Upper MS
Valley by late afternoon into early evening. The approach of this
mid-level impulse will support rapid surface troughing over the
Upper MS Valley, with some low-level moisture return expected. While
buoyancy will be relatively weak, strong tropospheric flow
accompanying the passing mid-level and surface troughs, along with
adequate deep-layer ascent, will promote thunderstorm development
over the Upper MS Valley by evening. There is some potential (albeit conditional) that a couple of these thunderstorms may become severe.

...Upper MS Valley...
As the surface trough intensifies through the day, a narrow ribbon
of 60+ F surface dewpoints will advect northward ahead of the
trough, beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, contributing to
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, the strengthening of the surface
trough will also encourage the development of a 40+ kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet just before sunset, when buoyancy
should be relatively maximized. Considerable veering and
strengthening flow fields with height will support enlarged and
curved low-level hodographs, especially closer to a warm front along
the MN/WI border.

The vertical shear profile and expected MLCAPE magnitudes would
certainly support supercells capable of producing all severe
hazards. However, potential cloud cover may inhibit robust
boundary-layer heating, and some MLCINH may linger just above the
boundary layer as well. Therefore, any surface-based severe
potential that can materialize will be highly dependent on stronger
surface heating and subsequent CIN erosion. Still, at least some
elevated buoyancy may be realized in the absence of stronger surface
heating, so thunderstorms forced along the lee trough/cold front may
still be accompanied by a hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 10/27/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 06:06:32

ACUS02 KWNS 280520
SWODY2
SPC AC 280518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Southern Rockies to Southern Plains vicinity...

Upper ridging will begin the period over the southern/central Plains
to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity. The ridge will weaken across
the southern Plains as a shortwave impulse ejects from northern
Mexico into TX/NM. Meanwhile, another shortwave upper trough will
move east across the Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold
front will extend from the upper Great Lakes to central KS Thursday
morning. The northern extent of the front will continue to develop east/southeast across portions of the Midwest, while the western
extent of the front advances northward across the central Plains
within the low-level warm advection regime beneath the upper ridge.

Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer
moisture northward across TX/OK/KS and the Lower MO Valley. This
will support generally modest destabilization in the 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE range, though a few areas across OK/KS may see values
approaching 1500 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop within the broad warm advection regime, aided by modest
large-scale ascent from the ejecting weak midlevel trough, from
NM/TX into OK/KS from midday into the evening. Vertical shear is
forecast to remain weak, limiting organized strong/severe
thunderstorm potential despite modest instability.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 17:23:26

ACUS02 KWNS 281723
SWODY2
SPC AC 281720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Some suppression of upper-level ridging can be expected across the
southern Plains as a shortwave trough moves out of the
Southwest/northern Mexico. Within the northern Rockies, the
upper-level ridge will amplify ahead of a Northwest upper trough.
Modest mid-level height rises will also extend into the central
Plains. A cold front will progress through the lower Great Lakes
region and parts of the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow at low levels
will persist in the southern/central Plains. A modest warm front may
make northward progress within the lower Missouri Valley region late
Thursday into Friday morning.

Convection is likely within the Southwest as the shortwave trough
evolves and moves northeastward. Storms will increase in coverage
northeastward as low-level warm advection develops during the evening/overnight. Weak lapse rates, modest buoyancy, and weak shear
should minimize severe potential with this activity. Additional
thunderstorms are expected within the lower Missouri Valley late
Thursday into Friday morning. Shear will be slightly stronger than
areas to the southwest. Even so, mid-level lapse rates and elevated
buoyancy will be marginal. Small hail is possible with the strongest
storms, but severe potential still appears low.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 29, 2026 05:18:58

ACUS02 KWNS 290518
SWODY2
SPC AC 290516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave disturbance will migrate through larger-scale
ridging over the Plains on Friday. This shortwave trough will lift
slowly northeast from the southern Rockies/Rio Grande vicinity to
the Mid/Lower MO Valley by early Saturday. Further west, another
mid/upper trough off the Pacific coast will pivot northeast across
the Lower CO Valley and Four Corners vicinity. Widespread showers
and thunderstorm activity are expected with these features, though
severe thunderstorm potential will be focused across AZ.

...AZ...

Mid/upper south/southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt will overspread
50s to low 60s F dewpoints Friday morning into the afternoon.
Diurnal heating may be muted in some locations due to early
thunderstorm development and cloudiness. Nevertheless, cool
temperatures aloft (around -12 to -15 C at 500 mb) will support
500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing
in speed in the midlevels, will result in 20-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes and modestly elongated hodographs. While muted heating
will limit stronger destabilization, and the expected widespread
nature of convection may quickly lead to convective overturning, at
least some risk of severe wind/hail will accompany stronger, better
organized convection through early evening, particularly across
southern to central AZ.

..Leitman.. 10/29/2026

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, October 29, 2026 17:31:30

ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough off the Northwest coast will strengthen on Friday.
Within the Plains, upper-level ridging will intensify from the
northern Rockies into parts of the central Plains. Within the
Southwest and southern Plains, a developing, nebulous shortwave
trough will lift northeastward out of northern Mexico and lead to
widespread showers/thunderstorms across parts of these regions. A
lingering surface boundary near the lower Missouri Valley will make
slow northward progress.

...Arizona...
Surface troughing within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity will
draw low-level moisture into southern/central Arizona. Cloud cover
will increase through the day as an intensifying shortwave trough
within the subtropical jet stream approaches the Baja Peninsula.
Even so, at least areas of filtered surface heating are possible.
This, along with subtle mid-level ascent and cooler temperatures
aloft, will support scattered convection during the afternoon along
the Mogollon Rim and within the surface trough. MLCAPE of 500-1250
J/kg will be possible. Effective shear will not be overly strong
(20-30 kt), but will be slowly increasing through the day. The
modest buoyancy and impacts from convective outflow will likely
result in storm severity being short-lived. Marginally severe hail
and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest activity.

...Lower Missouri Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Friday morning
near and north of the surface boundary. 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE could
support a stronger storm or two. Small hail appears possible.
However, poor lapse rates, weak effective shear, and slight warming
at mid levels will keep overall severe potential low.

..Wendt.. 10/29/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 05:43:04

ACUS02 KWNS 300542
SWODY2
SPC AC 300540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
Shortwave ridging will occur from the Northern Plains to the Upper
Great Lakes on Saturday as a shortwave trough exits the Maritimes
and multiple waves converge across the West. In the wake of the
northeastern trough, high pressure will become centered over the Mid
Atlantic, with dry low-level trajectories over much of the eastern
CONUS.

Easterly surface winds will maintain a boundary near the Gulf Coast,
though southerly winds may bring upper 60s well inland across
eastern TX into LA. Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be likely within a weak low-level warm advection regime. Lapse rates
will be poor with little if any severe potential.

Elsewhere, cool temperatures aloft will exist along the West Coast
and into much of the Intermountain West as an amplified upper trough
moves ashore late in the day over WA/OR/CA, and another
southern-stream wave approaches southern CA and northern Baja
overnight. While shear will increase across most of the region,
instability will be quite weak, with isolated lightning possible
from eastern ID southward across the Great Basin late in the day and
overnight.

..Jewell.. 10/30/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, October 30, 2026 17:15:14

ACUS02 KWNS 301715
SWODY2
SPC AC 301713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress along the Gulf Coast.
Farther west, an upper trough will deepen within the Great Basin
with another shortwave tough approaching the Baja Peninsula.

Scattered storms are expected within a weak warm advection regime
from east Texas into the Mid South and lower Mississippi Valley
vicinity. The strongest activity will likely remain offshore. Cold
temperatures aloft and minimal buoyancy will support isolated
thunderstorm activity within portions of the northern Great Basin.
Early morning thunderstorm activity will also be possible within a
zone of modest warm advection from southeast South Dakota into
eastern Iowa. Little to no severe risk is expected Saturday given
the poor thermodynamic environment.

..Wendt.. 10/30/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 31, 2026 05:36:22

ACUS02 KWNS 310536
SWODY2
SPC AC 310533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of central New Mexico
into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night, with at
least isolated damaging gusts possible.

...Discussion...
A deep upper trough and low will move quickly across the Great
Basin, as a southern stream disturbance moves from northern Baja CA
across AZ during the day and into NM overnight. At the surface, high
pressure will exist over much of the East, with southerly surface
winds increasing late in the day and into the overnight from the
High Plains into the Rockies in advance of the phasing upper system.

Low pressure will deepen from WY into CO overnight, with a cold
front moving into western NM late in the day. With the approaching
upper trough, pre-frontal winds are likely to remain gusty over NM
into the night which will keep the boundary layer a bit
warmer/mixed. With 50s F dewpoints, instability should be sufficient
for at least isolated severe storms as the cold front moves through.
The RRFS soundings shows around 500 MLCAPE at KABQ between 00-02Z
preceding the wind shift, with strong shear profiles including 55 kt
effective shear and effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Also depicted is a
high reflectively line with various bowing structures within,
possibly developing over west-central NM by 00Z. Locally severe
gusts will be the most likely threat from central NM during the
evening into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle overnight.

Depending on how organized any convective line becomes along the
cold front, some QLCS-type tornado potential could materialize. Instability/time of day will be a limiting factor, but a low-end
threat corridor may become more apparent in later updates.

..Jewell.. 10/31/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, October 31, 2026 17:32:24

ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ARIZONA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of southern Arizona
into New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle Sunday into Sunday
night, with at least isolated damaging gusts and a couple of
tornadoes possible.

...Southern Rockies to southern High Plains...
A midlevel trough just off the northern CA coast will progress
inland to the Four Corners by early Monday. This will be preceded
by the rapid northeastward ejection of a subtropical speed max now
near 27 N and 128 W. A surface cyclone is expected to consolidate
in the lee of the CO Rockies by Sunday night with increasing
low-level mass response and northward advection of low-level
moisture from TX to KS.

The lead speed max will cross southern AZ Sunday afternoon and NM
Sunday night. Cloud cover and precipitation the past few days, plus
an expansive swath of midlevel moisture in advance of the
subtropical wave, will tend to limit lapse rates across the elevated
mixed layer source region. However, unusually moist profiles will
also contribute to at least weak buoyancy into the higher terrain
from southern AZ into NM, and the buoyancy is unlikely to be tied
very strongly to the diurnal heating cycle. As such, there will be
the potential for bands of convection to accompany the ejecting
speed max Sunday into Sunday night, both across AZ and especially
NM. Wind profiles will be quite strong with long hodographs and
weakly buoyant, moist profiles, similar to cool season severe events
in the Southeast. Will expand the MRGL risk for embedded supercells
and/or bowing segments capable of producing occasional severe
outflow gusts and a couple of tornadoes, and a SLGT risk upgrade is
a possibility in later updates across NM.

..Thompson.. 10/31/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 06:05:04

ACUS02 KWNS 010604
SWODY2
SPC AC 010602

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and
southern Plains late Monday afternoon into the evening, with
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes the main threats.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the
Plains, with a leading speed max moving swiftly across western TX
and toward the MO Valley during the day. Meanwhile, a stronger speed
max will move across NM and into KS, OK, and northwest TX by late in
the day, and across the remainder of KS and OK overnight.

A surface low will deepen across central NE, with a cold front
moving into western NE and KS. A dryline will extend roughly from
central KS into western OK and west-central TX by 00Z, with mid 60s
F dewpoints across the warm sector. A 50-60 kt southerly low-level
jet will develop late in the day into the overnight period, also
aiding northward advection of moisture. At least a narrow zone of
supercell potential is evident near the dryline late in the day,
with a few tornadoes and damaging wind possible. The severe risk
should persist through the late evening with damaging winds and
possible QLCS storm mode, along with an isolated tornado risk.

...Parts of northern TX across OK and into eastern KS...
Capping due to relatively cool boundary-layer temperatures will
inhibit storms for much of the day, with a zone of steeper low-level
lapse rates near the dryline. Initial cell development is expected
there, from south-central KS into western OK and northwest TX after
21Z, with increasing coverage of storms through the evening as the
system continues eastward. Effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 will be
common, though effectiveness away from the dryline will depend on
how warm the boundary layer becomes. At the very least, initial
cells would appear to have a tornado risk, with sufficient
instability of 1000-1500 J/kg. A conditional risk of an EF2 tornado
exists due to favorable shear, and depending on destabilization.
Storms may become more linear with time as they move across OK,
north TX and eastern KS, with decreasing instability after 06Z.

..Jewell.. 11/01/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sunday, November 01, 2026 17:35:00

ACUS02 KWNS 011734
SWODY2
SPC AC 011732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and
southern Plains late Monday afternoon into the evening, with
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes the main threats.

...Synopsis...
A deep but initially disorganized upper trough over the Southwest is
forecast to amplify considerably as several subtropical and polar
stream disturbances coalesce Monday into Monday night. An 80+ kt
subtropical speed max, and an associated shortwave trough, will
rapidly move northeastward from eastern NM and CO to the Missouri
Valley by Monday evening. Strong ascent will deepen a lee low below
1000 mb across NE/SD, with a trailing cold front that will move into
western NE and KS before surging eastward overnight. A dryline and
lee trough will extend roughly from central KS into western OK and
west-central TX aided by a secondary shortwave trough moving from
the Four Corners into TX and western OK. As this feature gradually
becomes neutral/negatively tilted, robust height falls (12-15
DAM/12hrs) will overspread the Plains sustaining a 50-60 kt
low-level jet aiding northward advection of widespread mid 60s F
surface dewpoints.

...TX/OK/KS...
In the wake of a round of morning storms associated with the passing subtropical shortwave, a narrow corridor of robust surface heating
should allow surface temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s F
immediately ahead of the dryline from the TX Panhandle into
southwest KS and western OK. This should allow for scattered
thunderstorm development and maturation with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg late Monday afternoon. 60-80 kt mid-level flow overspreading
the dryline will support robust deep-layer shear profiles (effective
shear 45-60 kt) favorable for organized severe storms. A narrow zone
of semi-discrete supercell potential is evident near the dryline
late in the day, with some hail, a few tornadoes and damaging wind
possible. Despite the strong shear, the impact of a mixed convective
mode and uncertainty on diurnal destabilization across the broader
warm sector remains unclear.

AIFS ensemble guidance continues to show a secondary low center
developing and intensifying beneath the maximum in height falls
aloft near the KS/OK border Monday evening. The moist and
semi-stratified air mass, along with strong isallobaric flow will
support very strong low-level shear with model hodographs showing
0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2. While convective mode is likely to
transition to a more linear arrangement as forcing increases,
embedded supercellular elements and QLCS circulations will likely
persist given the robust shear environment. A few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe gusts are possible near the track of the
meso low along the KS/OK border into the evening and early overnight
hours.

...Eastern KS/MO into NE/IA...
Farther north and east, instability is forecast to be limited with
residual cloud cover and continuous low-level warm advection
expected to temper heating. Still, cooling mid-level temperatures
and strong forcing for ascent should be adequate for at least weak destabilization amid 60s F surface dewpoints. Very strong low-level
shear will be in place much of the day near and south of the
deepening surface low. This should continually strengthening through
the evening as the upper trough intensifies. Despite the minimal
buoyancy, pre-frontal warm air advection storms are possible before consolidation ahead of the surging cold front favors a low-topped
narrow QLCS. Poor lapse rates in the low-levels cast uncertainty on
the damaging wind potential, but the strong shear and mesovorticies
could support a few strong gusts and brief tornadoes into the
overnight hours.

..Lyons.. 11/01/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, November 02, 2026 06:57:04

ACUS02 KWNS 020656
SWODY2
SPC AC 020655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi
Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts, and a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out.

...Discussion...
A highly amplified upper trough will move out of the Plains and
toward the MS Valley on Tuesday, with moderate southerly winds
aloft. Height falls will occur over MO and AR during the day, and
into IL and western KY and TN overnight.

At the surface, low pressure will be located over southern MN,
nearly stationary, with a front extending south across IA, MO, and
into the Sabine Valley during the afternoon.

Southerly low-level winds with 30-40 kt at 850 mb will aid moisture
transport, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as the Missouri
Bootheel. Rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front
early, though a diurnal uptick in intensity is expected from the
Sabine River into southern MO.

The primary mitigating factor on Tuesday will be widespread clouds,
rain, and weak lapse rates ahead of the front. Still, at least
isolated severe gusts, or a brief tornado or two may occur as shear
profiles overall will favor rotation with storms along the front, or
possible cells ahead of the front from LA into AR.

..Jewell.. 11/02/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Monday, November 02, 2026 17:30:12

ACUS02 KWNS 021729
SWODY2
SPC AC 021727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
AND THE ARK-LA-MISS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi
Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

...MS Valley area...
The primary surface cyclone is expected to develop
north-northeastward from eastern KS Tuesday morning to the upper MS
Valley by Wednesday morning, as the associated midlevel trough
progresses eastward and northeastward across the MS Valley well in
advance of an upstream trough approaching northern CA. An
associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward through
the day across MO/AR. Clouds and convection will be relatively
widespread along the front at the beginning of the period, and a
messy/QLCS convective mode will likely persist through the day.

The primary cyclone developing away from the moisture source region,
the widespread clouds/rain, and poor midlevel lapse all suggest that
warm sector buoyancy will also remain limited through the period.
The richer low-level moisture and slightly larger buoyancy will
likely remain confined to the Ark-La-Miss, where low-level
shear/hodograph curvature is forecast to be sufficient for embedded
rotating storms capable of producing a tornado or two and isolated
wind damage. The isolated severe threat could persist into Tuesday
night across northern MS and vicinity on the east edge of the
returning low-level moisture and near the southern extent of the
stronger low-level flow/shear. Farther north into the mid MS
Valley, the severe threat farther north will be confined to the
strongest embedded line segments during the day. There is a small
chance for low-topped supercells near the surface cyclone Tuesday
afternoon.

..Thompson.. 11/02/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, November 03, 2026 06:44:16

ACUS02 KWNS 030644
SWODY2
SPC AC 030642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A stacked low will move from IA into Upper MI on Wednesday, with a
leading upper wave moving northeastward out of the OH Valley. Behind
this system, another progressive shortwave trough will move across
the Four Corners states.

As the surface low occludes and moves into the Upper Great Lakes,
the southward-extending surface trough will weaken across the OH/TN
Valleys. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will remain over much of the
Southeast, with drier air farther north into the Mid Atlantic with
high pressure. Scattered thunderstorms are likely during the day
ahead of the boundary from KY southward into AL/GA, with poor lapse
rates and the ejecting system to the north mitigating strong storm
potential.

There is a low chance of a few strong storms near a warm front that
will lift across eastern AL into western GA during the day. At this
time, it appears the very poor low to midlevel lapse rates will
mitigate storm severity.

..Jewell.. 11/03/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tuesday, November 03, 2026 17:18:52

ACUS02 KWNS 031718
SWODY2
SPC AC 031716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

...Southeast States...
A broad upper trough will continue to move slowly eastward across
the central/eastern states on Wednesday, with a potent shortwave
trough affecting the southern Appalachians. Thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing at 12z Wednesday morning over middle TN and
northern AL, with activity persisting and moving eastward into parts
of east TN/GA/western Carolinas through the afternoon. Strong flow
aloft may result in localized damaging wind gusts, but instability
will be very weak. A small 5% wind area was considered for
northeast AL/northwest GA, but given the weak CAPE fields will defer
to later updates.

..Hart.. 11/03/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, November 04, 2026 06:30:22

ACUS02 KWNS 040630
SWODY2
SPC AC 040628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A broad zone of moderate southwest winds aloft will extend from TX
across the OH/TN Valleys and into the Northeast on Thursday with the
primary speed max aloft moving toward the Lower Great Lakes by
evening. The surface low will translate into western Quebec, with
weak surface winds over much of the eastern states. However,
dewpoints in the 60s F will extend as far north as southern New
England by Friday morning. Elevated thunderstorm chances will
increase overnight from NC into NJ as the upper trough nears and
surface pressures fall into early Friday morning.

Elsewhere, a southern vorticity max will move across OK near the
tail end of the larger-scale eastern trough. Strong cooling aloft
will support elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms during
the day. Late-night elevated thunderstorms may also occur over Deep
South TX, as a cold front undercuts a moist air mass.

..Jewell.. 11/04/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, November 05, 2026 06:46:14

ACUS02 KWNS 050645
SWODY2
SPC AC 050644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the
eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

...Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly east across the Great Lakes with a
leading speed max farther east into the Mid Atlantic. Moderate
southwest winds and cooling aloft will overspread that region during
day, with a surface trough developing from southern New England into
the eastern Carolinas.

Ahead of a cold front, southwest low-level winds with 20-30 kt 850
mb speeds will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints from eastern VA
southward. Heating will be limited as rain and storms are likely to
be ongoing Friday morning from southern New England into Virginia.
Increasing large scale ascent will further expand storm coverage by
midday into the Carolinas.

A narrow plume of MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is possible ahead of the
ongoing activity/outflow, with effective shear of 35-40 kt. A few
bowing structures may occur with locally damaging gust, or perhaps a
brief tornado. However, the primary mitigating factor will be
relatively poor low-level lapse rates.

..Jewell.. 11/05/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Friday, November 06, 2026 17:02:42

ACUS02 KWNS 061702
SWODY2
SPC AC 061700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. Saturday and
Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east/northeast
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday. A cold front will
have already moved offshore most of the Atlantic coast by Saturday
morning, except perhaps over far eastern portions of New England.
Isolated thunderstorm may occur within the warm conveyor ahead of
the upper cyclone, though severe storms are not expected.

Additional, and more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected across portions of southern/central TX within a low-level
warm advection regime ahead of a developing upper cyclone across
northern Mexico. Instability will remain too meager to support
severe convection.

A few lightning flashes also will be possible across parts of the
Pacific Northwest and strong southwesterly flow overspread the
region ahead of an approaching upper shortwave trough and cold front
late in the forecast period. Gusty winds may accompany convection as
it moves onshore given the strength of background synoptic flow, but
MUCAPE less than 200 J/kg will preclude severe convection.

..Leitman.. 11/06/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Saturday, November 07, 2026 06:47:26

ACUS02 KWNS 070647
SWODY2
SPC AC 070645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. Sunday and
Sunday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At upper-levels over the U.S. on Sunday, a trough will move through
the Northeast as northwesterly flow remains in place over much of
the central and eastern U.S. Further south, a low will move slowly
across northern Mexico. Ahead of this system, a moist and weakly
unstable airmass will be in place over parts southern, central and
southwest Texas. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be
possible within this airmass during the day on Sunday. Storms will
likely continue across parts of south-central Texas Sunday night. No
severe threat is expected, and no thunderstorms are forecast across
the remainder of the U.S. Sunday and Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 11/07/2026

$$
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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